BEIJING — Chinese companies’ latest earnings reports point to an improvement in consumer spending, though it’s not necessarily back to pre-pandemic levels.
E-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com both said in the last several weeks that their China retail business saw faster year-on-year revenue growth in the last three months of 2024 than in 2023.
“We think consumption growth is in a period of healthy recovery, but not [yet reaching] the high previously,” Charlie Chen, managing director and head of Asia research at China Renaissance Securities, said Wednesday in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.
For consumer spending to return to pre-pandemic growth, Chinese companies’ revenue growth likely needs to recover by double digits and consumer confidence needs to improve, Chen said. He noted that the recent real estate slump has weighed on consumers’ sense of affluence.
Chinese policymakers have emphasized that boosting consumption is their priority this year. So far, authorities have expanded a trade-in subsidy program to include smartphones, on top of home appliances and electric cars. In September, Beijing also signaled a shift in real estate policy by calling for a halt in the market decline.
JD.com has benefitted directly from the trade-in program, and reported 15.8% year-on-year growth in sales for electronics and home appliances in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, full-year segment revenue of 4.9% was only the fastest growth since 2021, when sales surged by nearly 23%.
The government has introduced consumption-stimulating policies since the second half of last year, and they have “driven a steady recovery in consumer confidence,” Sandy Xu, chief executive officer and executive director of JD.com, said in an earnings call this month, according to a FactSet transcript.
“In short-term we believe there are still challenges on the macro side, but in the long term, we remain very optimistic about consumer sentiment,” she said.
Niche markets stand out
Tencent, which operates mobile payments and social media app WeChat, reported a 3% growth in fintech and businesses services to 56.1 billion yuan ($7.7 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2024, noting that “commercial payment services revenue was broadly stable year-on-year.” That compares with 39% segment growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, which Tencent had attributed to “greater revenue contributions from commercial payment.”
Certain companies have found niche areas where Chinese consumers are spending, however.
In late February, Beijing-based Laopu Gold, which makes and sells gold jewelry with Chinese designs, forecast that its net profit last year surged by at least 236% in 2024 to 1.4 billion yuan. The company is set to release full results for 2024 on Tuesday.
Toy company Pop Mart also propelled ahead, reporting on Wednesday that revenue in mainland China more than doubled last year to 2.64 billion yuan.
Retail sales growth of 4% year over year in January and February was the highest increase in the past 12 months on a seasonally adjusted basis, Chen said. Since that rise was on a high base of 5.5% growth in the first two months of 2024, he expects retail sales growth this year will be higher than 4%.
Retail sales rose by a muted 3.5% in 2024. For 2015 to 2019, retail sales had grown by an average of 9.7% each year.
Chen said he expects government policy to support more consumer discretionary or services spending since the potential for recovery is greater there than in daily necessities.
While the company did not detail its views on the domestic market, it emphasized that international travel had recovered to more than 120% of 2019 levels. CEO Jane Sun also highlighted in an earnings call that the “silver generation,” or travelers over the age of 50, is a target demographic as the market segment will likely exceed 1 trillion yuan in value in coming years.
Intense competition
China, the world’s second-largest consumer market, remains intensely competitive especially as consumer demand has been soft. Electric car companies have slashed prices, while retailers have struggled to compete with heavy online discounts.
Home accessories retail chain Miniso reported its mainland China revenue grew by 10.9% last year to 1.28 billion yuan, although growth moderated slightly in the December quarter at 6.5%. The company does not plan to accelerate its pace of store openings, and said online sales in China are increasingly driving growth.
Major beverage chains in China from milk tea to coffee also saw lower same-store sales in the latter part of 2024.
Overall industry slowdown and competitors launching low-priced products contributed to a 0.7% drop in same-store sales in the first nine months of 2024, bubble tea chain Guming said in its Hong Kong initial public offering prospectus released Feb. 4.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, average monthly sales per Chagee milk tea store in China fell by 20.6% from a year ago, after modest growth in the prior quarter, according to CNBC calculations of figures disclosed this week in a prospectus for a U.S. IPO. Overseas sales surged by 29.2% year on year in the fourth quarter.
Chinese bubble tea chain Mixue said average sales per store fell to 1.08 million yuan in the first three months of 2024, down from 1.13 million yuan a year earlier, according to the latest figures available.
Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading. PVH Corp — The fashion stock soared about 16% on the back of stronger-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter. The Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger parent earned $3.27 per share, excluding items, on $2.37 billion in revenue, beating the consensus forecasts of analysts polled by LSEG for $3.21 a share and revenue at $2.33 billion. Johnson & Johnson — Shares pulled back 4% after a U.S. bankruptcy judge denied the health-care product maker’s $10 billion settlement proposal tied to thousands of lawsuits alleging its baby powder and other talc products caused ovarian cancer. The judge said Johnson & Johnson’s plan did not have enough support from the women who allegedly got cancer from its products. Airlines — Several air carrier stocks slid after downgrades by Jefferies. American and Delta both fell nearly 2% after moving to hold ratings, while Southwest lost more than 3% following its downgrade to underperform. Xpeng — U.S.-listed shares of the Chinese electric vehicle company rallied 3%. Xpeng delivered 33,205 vehicles in March, marking an increase of more than 260% from the same month a year ago. Newsmax — Shares of the conservative cable news network surged more than 22% in the premarket, adding to gains from the previous session when Newsmax soared more than 700% in its public debut on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock, which opened at $14 a share and was priced at $10 a share, closed Monday at $83.51. Shake Shack — Shares of the burger chain rose 3% after Loop Capital Markets upgraded the stock to buy from hold. The investment firm said Shake Shack has a strong track record of beating sales expectations and that a recent pullback for the stock has created a buying opportunity. First Watch Restaurant Group — Shares advanced more than 3% after receiving an upgrade to buy from hold at TD Cowen. The firm said that it expects 2025 to see an improvement in same-store sales as a result of “more effective” marketing. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Sarah Min and Jesse Pound contributed reporting
Market uncertainty should “peak” around the Wednesday tariff deadline, according to Evercore ISI.
In a note this week, Julian Emanuel wrote investors should resist tariff angst and accumulate stocks.
“All you need is a little less uncertainty,” the firm’s senior managing director said Monday on CNBC’s “Fast Money.”
Emanuel compares the market pessimism to the March 2023 regional bank failures.
“The mood this morning and over the weekend talking with clients and talking with colleagues is as negative as I can remember going back to when Silicon Valley Bank blew up,” he said. “We didn’t know the Fed was going to ‘take care of business.'”
They were the S&P 500’s worst performing sectors of the month and quarter. But at these levels, according to Emanuel, companies will want to do stock buybacks which would help boost prices.
Meanwhile, he would avoid the recent leaders.
“What’s interesting about today is that everyone basically moved their sectors in the direction of how the entire quarter was going,” Emanuel said. “You saw consumer staples outperform. You saw health care very strong. In our view, those are probably the places where defense has been hiding.”
Health care gained 6% in the first quarter while consumer staples gained about 5%.
Emanuel thinks the market will regain its footing. His S&P 500 year-end price target is 6,800, which implies a 21% gain from Monday’s close.
“We don’t think you need a material clarity,” he said. “You need… the very, very extreme scenarios [tied to tariffs] becoming less possible.”
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Hedge funds are dumping stocks at a rapid pace as President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda spiked volatility on Wall Street. These professional traders have net sold global equities for six weeks in a row, with last week’s notional de-grossing amount reaching the largest level since July, according to data from Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage unit. The cohort has been particularly fleeing high-flying technology names, offloading shares at the fastest pace in six months. The selling last week was also the second largest notionally in the last five years, Goldman’s data suggested. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Bank of America trading desk also flagged bearish sentiment among hedge funds and other money managers. “Sentiment in all conversations is pretty bearish. It seems like long/short books are very tight, from a risk/exposure perspective. Long Onlies seem very defensively positioned,” BofA trading desk said in a note to clients Monday. “The mood is very very cautious.” Hedge funds were retreating at a time when the macroeconomic environment suddenly grew less certain. President Donald Trump ‘s aggressive tariff charges on imports into the U.S. stoked fears of dampened consumer spending, slower economic growth and even a recession. Investors are bracing for Trump’s Wednesday imposition of reciprocal tariffs on “all countries .” The White House has already slapped punitive tariffs on aluminum, steel and autos, along with increased tariffs on all goods from China. Earlier this month, the S & P 500 dipped into correction territory, or falling 10% from its recent peak. The benchmark is now trading 9.5% below that record high from February. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!