BEIJING — JPMorgan has called the bottom in the Chinese consumer slump, and the firm says now it’s time to buy. Chinese consumers have been reluctant to spend since the Covid-19 pandemic. Retail sales rose by just 3.5% last year , less than half the average of 9.7% in the years 2015 to 2019. But on March 26, JPMorgan’s China equity strategists upgraded consumer discretionary stocks to overweight from neutral. While tariffs and tensions with the U.S. may dent sentiment, the strategists expect Beijing may ramp up consumer stimulus following high-level policy calls to do so. In the meantime, “our analytics show that China’s business cycle for consumption has been bottoming out,” JPMorgan’s chief Asia and China equity strategist Wendy Liu and a team said in the report. They pointed out drivers such as recent trade-in policies, stabilizing stock and property prices , and moderating deflationary pressure due to base effects. The latest earnings results from Chinese companies signal some recovery in consumer spending , albeit still far from pre-pandemic levels except in some niche categories such as gold and popular toys. The JPMorgan analysts expect that in coming weeks, Chinese stocks may rise on better-than-expected earnings growth and increased forecasts. Their China consumer stock picks focus on sub-sectors with fundamental improvements and reasonable valuations. Here are their China consumer plays: Anta Sports — The Hong Kong-listed sportswear brand reported better-than-expected retail sales in February with less of a need for discounting products, according to JPMorgan. Anta owns the rights to Italian brand Fila in China. Mengniu — JPMorgan expects the Hong Kong-listed Chinese dairy giant can likely benefit from China’s efforts to boost the birth rate. Mengniu is headquartered in the Inner Mongolian capital of Hohhot that this month announced subsidies of up to 100,000 yuan per child . However, the company reported a 10.1% drop in 2024 revenue in the face of “intensified pricing competition,” according to an annual report released Wednesday. China Resources Beer — The Hong Kong-listed seller of Heineken in China earlier this month reported sales of the premium beer grew by nearly 20% in 2024 despite a high base the prior year. JPMorgan noted that CR Beer’s management reported a pickup in consumer sentiment in the first two months of 2025 and were confident of delivering stronger earnings growth in the year ahead than in 2024. Tal Education — The U.S.-listed Chinese education company currently operates at a loss, but its margins are set to improve as Tal sells significantly more artificial intelligence-powered educational devices in the next two years, JPMorgan predicts. The company said in January that its AI learning devices are one of its “faster-growing business lines.” The JPMorgan report cautioned that although an official measure of consumer confidence has stabilized after plunging in 2022, it still remains about 30 points below where it was in the 2018 to 2021 period. China’s retail sales rose by 4% in the January-February period versus a year earlier, raising hopes for an improvement in the year ahead. Chinese stocks have pulled back, with the Hang Seng index down more than 1% in the past week as a potential new round of U.S. tariffs loom in early April. However, in the last several days, major investment firms such as Goldman Sachs have noted that investors’ interest in Chinese stocks has reached the highest since a peak in early 2021. JPMorgan last week raised their targets on the MSCI China index to a base case of 80 Hong Kong dollars, up from 67 HKD, for upside of around 6% from Friday’s levels. The index tracks major Chinese companies traded on the mainland, in Hong Kong and the U.S. The strategists upgraded their view on China health-care stocks to overweight from neutral, given optimism over how AI may help biotech companies cut costs. But the firm downgraded Chinese industrial stocks to neutral from overweight due to overcapacity concerns and soft property-related construction demand. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Check out the companies making the biggest moves midday: Petco Health — The retailer slumped 22% after losing 4 cents per share in the fiscal first quarter, twice the 2-cent loss that analysts had estimated, based on FactSet data. Revenue of $1.49 billion missed the Street’s $1.50 billion consensus, while same-store sales dropped 1.3%, worse than the 0.6% decline forecast by analysts. Tesla — The EV maker added more than 6%, a day after plunging 14% as CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump publicly feuded . Broadcom — Shares of the chipmaker dipped 2.7% on lackluster free cash flow for the second quarter. Broadcom reported free cash flow of $6.41 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for $6.98 billion. Still, several analysts covering the stock raised their price targets. ABM Industries — Shares fell 11% after the facilities management company reported mixed results for its second quarter. Its adjusted earnings of 86 per share was in line with expectations, while its revenue of $2.11 billion topped the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.06 billion. ABM Industries also reiterated its earnings guidance for the year. Circle Internet Group — The stablecoin company popped 38%, following its Thursday debut on the New York Stock Exchange. Circle soared 168% in its first day of trading . Lululemon — The athleisure company pulled back 20% after its second-quarter outlook missed analyst estimates. CFO Meghan Frank also said on a call that Lululemon plans on taking “strategic price increases, looking item by item across our assortment” to mitigate the impact of higher tariffs. G-III Apparel Group — The apparel company tumbled 15% on much weaker-than-expected earnings guidance for the second quarter. The company sees earnings per share in a range of 2 cents to 12 cents. Analysts had estimated earnings of around 48 cents per share, according to FactSet. DocuSign — The electronic signature stock plunged 19% after the company cut its full-year billings forecast. Billings for the fiscal first quarter also came in lower than expected. Braze — Shares of the customer engagement platforms provider fell 13% on disappointing guidance. Braze guided for second-quarter adjusted earnings of 2 to 3 cents per share. Analysts polled by FactSet called for 9 cents per share. Its first-quarter results beat estimates. Quanex Building Products — The maker of windows and doors and other construction materials soared 18%, the most since September, after earning an adjusted 60 cents per share in its fiscal second quarter versus analysts’ consensus estimate of 47 cents, on revenue of $452 million against the Street’s $439 million, FactSet data showed. Adjusted EBITDA also topped forecasts. Samsara — Shares shed 5% after the software company projected revenue growth to slow. Samsara guided for second-quarter revenue to increase between $371 million and $373 million, up from the $367 million in the first quarter. That would be a slowdown on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Solaris Energy Infrastructure — The oil and natural gas equipment and service provider rallied 10% after Barclays initiated research coverage with an overweight rating and $42 price target. “Solaris is the leader in distributed power with almost 2 GW of capacity to be added by 2027 with 67% allocated towards data centers on long term contracts,” the bank said.
A sign in German that reads “part of the UBS group” in Basel on May 5, 2025.
Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images
The Swiss government on Friday proposed strict new capital rules that would require banking giant UBS to hold an additional $26 billion in core capital, following its 2023 takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse.
The measures would also mean that UBS will need to fully capitalize its foreign units and carry out fewer share buybacks.
“The rise in the going-concern requirement needs to be met with up to USD 26 billion of CET1 capital, to allow the AT1 bond holdings to be reduced by around USD 8 billion,” the government said in a Friday statement, referring to UBS’ holding of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds.
The Swiss National Bank said it supported the measures from the government as they will “significantly strengthen” UBS’ resilience.
“As well as reducing the likelihood of a large systemically important bank such as UBS getting into financial distress, this measure also increases a bank’s room for manoeuvre to stabilise itself in a crisis through its own efforts. This makes it less likely that UBS has to be bailed out by the government in the event of a crisis,” SNB said in a Friday statement.
‘Too big to fail’
UBS has been battling the specter of tighter capital rules since acquiring the country’s second-largest bank at a cut-price following years of strategic errors, mismanagement and scandals at Credit Suisse.
The shock demise of the banking giant also brought Swiss financial regulator FINMA under fire for its perceived scarce supervision of the bank and the ultimate timing of its intervention.
Swiss regulators argue that UBS must have stronger capital requirements to safeguard the national economy and financial system, given the bank’s balance topped $1.7 trillion in 2023, roughly double the projected Swiss economic output of last year. UBS insists it is not “too big to fail” and that the additional capital requirements — set to drain its cash liquidity — will impact the bank’s competitiveness.
At the heart of the standoff are pressing concerns over UBS’ ability to buffer any prospective losses at its foreign units, where it has, until now, had the duty to back 60% of capital with capital at the parent bank.
Higher capital requirements can whittle down a bank’s balance sheet and credit supply by bolstering a lender’s funding costs and choking off their willingness to lend — as well as waning their appetite for risk. For shareholders, of note will be the potential impact on discretionary funds available for distribution, including dividends, share buybacks and bonus payments.
“While winding down Credit Suisse’s legacy businesses should free up capital and reduce costs for UBS, much of these gains could be absorbed by stricter regulatory demands,” Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said in a note preceding the FINMA announcement.
“Such measures may place UBS’s capital requirements well above those faced by rivals in the United States, putting pressure on returns and reducing prospects for narrowing its long-term valuation gap. Even its long-standing premium rating relative to the European banking sector has recently evaporated.”
The prospect of stringent Swiss capital rules and UBS’ extensive U.S. presence through its core global wealth management division comes as White House trade tariffs already weigh on the bank’s fortunes. In a dramatic twist, the bank lost its crown as continental Europe’s most valuable lender by market capitalization to Spanish giant Santander in mid-April.
Check out the companies making the biggest moves in premarket trading: Tesla —The EV maker added nearly 5%, a day after plunging 14% as CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump publicly feuded . Broadcom — Shares of the chipmaker slipped about 2% before the opening bell, on the heels of lackluster free cash flow in the second quarter. Broadcom reported free cash flow of $6.41 billion, while analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for $6.98 billion. Broadcom stock has risen more than 12% year to date. Circle Internet Group — The stablecoin company popped nearly 14%, following its debut on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday. Circle soared 168% in its first day of trading . Lululemon — Stock in the athleisure company pulled back nearly 20% after its second-quarter outlook missed analyst estimates. Lululemon forecast earnings per share in the current quarter in the range of $2.85 to $2.90 per share, while analysts polled by LSEG were looking for $3.29. The firm also slashed its earnings outlook for the full year. DocuSign — The electronic signature stock plunged 19%. Despite beating Wall Street expectations on both lines for the first quarter, billings came in lower than anticipated, per FactSet. DocuSign also set current-quarter guidance for billings that was below analysts’ consensus forecast. Braze — Shares of the customer engagement platforms provider fell 6% following the company’s disappointing guidance. Braze guided for second-quarter adjusted earnings between 2 cents and 3 cents per share, while analysts polled by FactSet called for 9 cents per share. Its first-quarter results beat estimates. Samsara — Shares shed 12% after the software company projected revenue growth to slow. Samsara guided for second-quarter revenue to increase between $371 million and $373 million, up from the $367 million in the first quarter. That would be a slowdown on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Rubrik — The stock gained about 4% following the cloud data management company’s top and bottom line beats for its first quarter. Rubrik lost an adjusted 15 cents per share, narrower than the 32 cent loss expected from analysts polled by FactSet. Revenue was $278.5 million, versus the $260.4 million consensus estimate. —CNBC’s Alex Harring and Brian Evans contributed reporting.