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IRS to lose billions if migrants stop filing tax returns

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The Internal Revenue Service is projected to lose more than $313 billion in revenue in the coming decade as undocumented workers are poised to pay fewer taxes after the agency struck a deal to share data with U.S. immigration authorities.

The IRS is expected to lose $12 billion in revenue for the remainder of the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to a report out Tuesday by the Yale Budget Lab. The group estimates unauthorized workers paid about $66 billion in federal taxes in fiscal year 2023, with about two-thirds of that coming from payroll levies.

The Treasury Department — which oversees the IRS — earlier this week reached a deal with the Department of Homeland Security to share taxpayer information in response to law enforcement requests related to migration. While federal officials say the agreement includes safeguards and applies only to criminal matters, it reverses longstanding IRS privacy policies.

The report underscores the role undocumented workers play in paying into Social Security and Medicare benefit programs that they can’t draw from in retirement because of their immigration status. 

“The IRS has historically made clear to the undocumented immigrant population that their tax information is confidential and would not be used in such ways,” the report said. Tax compliance could fall among that group “if they become concerned that filing taxes could expose their personal contact information to law enforcement and be used to facilitate their deportation.”

President Donald Trump has enlisted the IRS and other government agencies in his efforts to crack down on undocumented immigration. He’s vowed to carry out the largest mass deportation campaign in U.S. history, and so far is ramping up raids and encouraging undocumented immigrants to “self-deport.”

The report notes that there’s “considerable uncertainty” around the estimates, as they will depend strongly on the behaviors of undocumented immigrants and their employers. The 10-year loss in revenue could be as low as $147 billion and as high as $479 billion, according to the Budget Lab.

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Accounting

Acting IRS commissioner reportedly replaced

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Gary Shapley, who was named only days ago as the acting commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service, is reportedly being replaced by Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender amid a power struggle between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Elon Musk.

The New York Times reported that Bessent was outraged that Shapley was named to head the IRS without his knowledge or approval and complained to President Trump about it. Shapley was installed as acting commissioner on Tuesday, only to be ousted on Friday. He first gained prominence as an IRS Criminal Investigation special agent and whistleblower who testified in 2023 before the House Oversight Committee that then-President Joe Biden’s son Hunter received preferential treatment during a tax-evasion investigation, and he and another special agent had been removed from the investigation after complaining to their supervisors in 2022. He was promoted last month to senior advisor to Bessent and made deputy chief of IRS Criminal Investigation. Shapley is expected to remain now as a senior official at IRS Criminal Investigation, according to the Wall Street Journal. The IRS and the Treasury Department press offices did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Faulkender was confirmed last month as deputy secretary at the Treasury Department and formerly worked during the first Trump administration at the Treasury on the Paycheck Protection Program before leaving to teach finance at the University of Maryland.

Faulkender will be the fifth head of the IRS this year. Former IRS commissioner Danny Werfel departed in January, on Inauguration Day, after Trump announced in December he planned to name former Congressman Billy Long, R-Missouri, as the next IRS commissioner, even though Werfel’s term wasn’t scheduled to end until November 2027. The Senate has not yet scheduled a confirmation hearing for Long, amid questions from Senate Democrats about his work promoting the Employee Retention Credit and so-called “tribal tax credits.” The job of acting commissioner has since been filled by Douglas O’Donnell, who was deputy commissioner under Werfel. However, O’Donnell abruptly retired as the IRS came under pressure to lay off thousands of employees and share access to confidential taxpayer data. He was replaced by IRS chief operating officer Melanie Krause, who resigned last week after coming under similar pressure to provide taxpayer data to immigration authorities and employees of the Musk-led U.S. DOGE Service. 

Krause had planned to depart later this month under the deferred resignation program at the IRS, under which approximately 22,000 IRS employees have accepted the voluntary buyout offers. But Musk reportedly pushed to have Shapley installed on Tuesday, according to the Times, and he remained working in the commissioner’s office as recently as Friday morning. Meanwhile, plans are underway for further reductions in the IRS workforce of up to 40%, according to the Federal News Network, taking the IRS from approximately 102,000 employees at the beginning of the year to around 60,000 to 70,000 employees.

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Accounting

On the move: EY names San Antonio office MP

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Carr, Riggs & Ingram appoints CFO and chief legal officer; TSCPA hosts accounting bootcamp; and more news from across the profession.

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Accounting

Tech news: Certinia announces spring release

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Certinia announces spring release; Intuit acquires tech and experts from fintech Deserve; Paystand launches feature to navigate tariffs; and other accounting tech news and updates.

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