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Fed’s Hammack calls for patience in assessing what impacts tariffs will have on the economy

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Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said Thursday she thinks policymakers need to be patient rather than pre-emptive in assessing how tariffs will impact inflation and growth.

In her first broadcast interview since taking the reins at the central bank district in August 2024, Hammack noted the high level of uncertainty now and did not commit to a specific course of action regarding interest rate policy.

“I think we need to be patient. I think this is a time when we want to make sure we’re moving in the right direction, than moving too quickly in the wrong direction,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “So I would rather take our time make sure we’re looking at the data, the hard data … which are actually really good.”

Hammack’s remarks come at a sensitive time for the Fed, which has been left to assess the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on both inflation and employment.

Several central bank officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said the duties pose threats to both sides of the Fed’s “dual mandate,” posing another challenge on how to calibrate monetary policy. Hammack also voiced concerns over how the Fed might balance those priorities.

“It could be that we have the two sides of our mandate and conflict, which is the most challenging for monetary policy,” she said. “If it’s higher inflation, lower employment, that’s where things get really complicated.”

Markets strongly expect the Fed will stand pat on interest rates when it meets May 6-7, then resume cutting rates in June with the likelihood of a total three or four cuts by the end of the year, according to CME Group data.

“If we have convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move if we know which way to move at that point,” Hammack said.

However, uncertainty over tariff policy and how the Fed might react has contributed to substantial market volatility in recent months, with stocks struggling, Treasury yields rising and the U.S. dollar falling.

A former Goldman Sachs executive, Hammack said she is sensitive to market movements but only in how they affect broader economic conditions.

“Our job is not to focus on what the markets are doing. Our job is to focus on how that’s going to impact households and businesses, and what that’s going to mean in the real economy,” she said. “So we’re not steering the markets. We’re steering the real economy.”

Hammack noted that the “hard” economic data such as unemployment and inflation is still relatively good, while “soft” data such as surveys shows elevated levels of concern.

“What we’re hearing right now is that the uncertainty is really weighing on businesses,” she said. “It’s creating issues for them in terms of planning, in terms of thinking about where they’re going to go, and so some of them have put pauses on whether they’re going to make bigger investments, whether they’re going to invest in new facilities, new capital plans, and then they’re thinking about their hiring plans.”

“I wish I had a crystal ball. We don’t have one,” Hammack added.

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Chinese factories stop production, eye new markets as U.S. tariffs hit

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Textile manufacturing workers in Binzhou, Shandong, China, on April 23, 2025.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese manufacturers are pausing production and turning to new markets as the impact of U.S. tariffs sets in, according to companies and analysts.

The lost orders are also hitting jobs.

“I know several factories that have told half of their employees to go home for a few weeks and stopped most of their production,” said Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions. He said factories making toys, sporting goods and low-cost Dollar Store-type goods are the most affected right now.

“While not large-scale yet, it is happening in the key [export] hubs of Yiwu and Dongguan and there is concern that it will grow,” Johnson said. “There is a hope that tariffs will be lowered so orders can resume, but in the meantime companies are furloughing employees and idling some production.”

Around 10 million to 20 million workers in China are involved with U.S.-bound export businesses, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. The official number of workers in China’s cities last year was 473.45 million.

President Trump says U.S. met this morning with China, declines to identify individuals involved

Over a series of swift announcements this month, the U.S. added more than 100% in tariffs to Chinese goods, to which China retaliated with reciprocal duties. While U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday asserted trade talks with Beijing were underway, the Chinese side has denied any negotiations are ongoing.

The impact of the recent doubling in tariffs is “way bigger” than that of the Covid-19 pandemic, said Ash Monga, founder and CEO of Guangzhou-based Imex Sourcing Services, a supply chain management company. He noted that for small businesses with only several million dollars in resources, the sudden increase in tariffs might be unbearable and could put them out of business.

He said there’s so much demand from clients and other importers of Chinese products that he’s launching a new “Tariff Help” website on Friday to help small business find suppliers based outside China.

Livestreaming

The business disruption is forcing Chinese exporters to try new sales strategies.

Woodswool, an athleticwear manufacturer based in Ningbo, near Shanghai, quickly turned to selling the clothes online in China via livestreaming. After launching the sales channel about a week ago, the company said it’s received more than 30 orders with gross merchandise value of more than 5,000 yuan ($690).

It’s a small step toward salvaging lost business.

“All our U.S. orders have been canceled,” Li Yan, factory manager and brand director of Woodswool, said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

More than half of production once went to the U.S., and some capacity will be idle for two to three months until the company is able to build up new markets, Li said. He noted the company has sold to customers in Europe, Australia and the U.S. for more than 20 years.

The venture into livestreaming is part of an effort by major Chinese tech companies, at the behest of Beijing, to help exporters redirect their goods to the domestic market.

Woodswool is selling its products online through Baidu, whose search engine app also includes a livestreaming e-commerce platform. Li said he chose the company’s virtual human livestreaming option since it allowed him to get up and running within two weeks, without having to spend time and money on renovating a studio and hiring a team.

Baidu said it has worked with at least several hundred Chinese businesses to launch domestic e-commerce channels after this month announcing it would provide subsidies and free artificial intelligence tools — such as its “Huiboxing” virtual humans — for 1 million businesses. The virtual humans are digitally recreated versions of people that use AI to mimic sales pitches and automate interactions with customers. The company claimed that return on investment was higher than that of using a human being.

Domestic market challenges

E-commerce company JD.com was one of the first to announce similar support, pledging 200 billion yuan ($27.22 billion) to buy Chinese goods originally intended for export — and find ways to sell them within China. Food delivery company Meituan has also announced it would help exporters distribute domestically, without specifying an amount.

However, $27.22 billion is only 5% of the $524.66 billion in goods that China exported to the U.S. last year.

“A few businesses have told us that under 125% tariffs, their business model is not workable,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters Friday. He also noted more competition among Chinese companies in the last week.

Tariffs from both countries will likely remain in place at a certain level, with exemptions for certain tariffs, Hart said. “That’s exactly what they’re backing into.”

Products branded and developed for a suburban U.S. consumer might not directly work for a Chinese apartment dweller.

Manufacturers have gone directly to Chinese social media platforms Red Note and Douyin, the local version of TikTok, to ask consumers to support them, but fatigue is growing, pointed out Ashley Dudarenok, founder of ChoZan, a China marketing consultancy.

Looking outside the U.S.

Fewer and fewer Chinese companies are considering diverting exports to the U.S. through other countries, given rising U.S. scrutiny of transshipments, she said. Dudarenok added that many companies are diversifying production to India over Southeast Asia, while others are turning from U.S. customers to those in Europe and Latin America.

Some companies have already built businesses on other trade routes from China.

Liu Xu runs an e-commerce company called Beijing Mingyuchu that sells bathroom products to Brazil. While his business has run into challenges from fluctuating exchange rates and high container shipping costs, Liu said he expects trade with Brazil will ultimately not be that affected by China’s tensions with the U.S.

China’s exports to Brazil have doubled between 2018 and 2024, as have China’s exports to Ghana.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, Ghana-based Cotrie Logistics was founded to help businesses with sourcing, coordinate shipments amid port delays and build dependable logistics routes, said CEO Bright Tordzroh. The company primarily works in trade between China and Ghana and now makes $300,000 to $1 million annually, he said.

The U.S.-China trade tensions have led many companies to explore sourcing and manufacturing locations outside the United States, Tordzroh said, which he hopes can create more opportunities for Cotrie.

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Finance

These are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week

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A security guard works outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the Federal Reserve announcement in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024. 

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House.

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These U.S. consumer stocks face higher China risks

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