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Foreign tourist boycott begins, as businesses brace for impact

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Kaia Matheny (left) and Nora Lamphiear (right), co-owners of Adrift Restaurant in Anacortes, Washington.

Kaia Matheny.

Anacortes, a small coastal town in Washington state, typically bustles with tourists during the summer months.

But local business owners like Kaia Matheny are bracing for less foot traffic — and a financial hit — this year as tensions around trade and concerns about immigration policy push foreigners to reconsider the U.S. as a travel destination.

Matheny is the co-owner of Adrift Restaurant, a nautical themed farm-to-table eatery in downtown Anacortes. The town, a gateway to the San Juan islands, is a two-hour drive south of Vancouver.

She’s seen sales fall amid fewer customers from Canada, which is generally the U.S.’ top source of international visitors. Air and land arrivals from Canadians fell 14% and 32%, respectively, in March compared to the same time in 2024, according to Tourism Economics.

A sharp decline in foot traffic among foreign tourists looks set to persist through summer, data shows. Matheny is “wary” about what that will mean during peak season, which typically kicks off in June.

Tourism “won’t be what it is usually,” Matheny said. “We’ll batten down the hatches and make the best of it.”

A ‘quickly souring’ travel outlook

Tourism is a big U.S. export: Foreign visitors spent more than $180 billion here in 2024, more than all agricultural exports combined, said Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association.

However, international visits to the U.S. fell 12% year-over-year in March, according to Oxford Economics.

It’s not just Canada: Visits from Western Europe, Asia and South America — historically the U.S.’ highest-value travel markets — are also down by double-digit percentages, according to the U.S. Travel Association.

Data suggests the weakness will persist through the summer.

Air bookings for overseas summer travel to the U.S. are pacing about 10% behind the same time last year, according to Tourism Economics, which is affiliated with Oxford Economics. (These were bookings made as of March.)

Canada and Mexico are worse, data show. Summer bookings from Canada to the U.S. are down more than 30%, for example.

“Foreign visitations to the US are the largest services export in the country and the outlook is quickly souring,” Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note published in May.

The loss in international tourism is expected to cost the U.S. economy $10 billion this year compared to 2024, said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics. The U.S. Travel Association pegs the potential loss at an even higher $21 billion in 2025, if current travel trends continue.

“It’s alarming,” Freeman said. Many businesses and destinations “count on the international visitor, in particular.”

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The tourism pullback appears to be “more a U.S. issue right now” rather than a broad global weakness in travel, since other regions are seeing positive tourism growth, said Lorraine Sileo, senior analyst and founder of Phocuswright Research, a market research firm.

Domestic tourism isn’t poised to pick up the slack — the market was slowing heading into 2025 and the “revenge travel” trend, which had propelled Americans to travel due to pent-up demand after Covid-19 lockdowns, has largely been played out, she said.

“I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom for the U.S. travel industry,” Sileo said. “But it’ll be a tough year.”

Travelers have ‘a great deal of fear’

U.S. Customs and Border Protection in Newark Liberty International Airport.

Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Many factors underpin the decline in international visitors, travel experts said.

For one, President Donald Trump has announced several rounds of tariffs, sparking fears of a global trade war and raising the average import duties to the highest level since the early 1900s.

Trade wars are “intrinsically combative” with the international community, Sacks said.

In early April, China issued a risk alert for tourists heading to the U.S., citing deteriorating economic relations and domestic security. Several European nations also recently issued U.S. travel advisories, citing reasons such as heightened border security and potential issues around travel documents.

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Trump has also drawn the ire of Canadian citizens and lawmakers through repeated suggestions that Canada become the 51st U.S. state, experts said. Likewise for Greenland, which is part of Denmark.

“Now is also the time to choose Canada,” former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during a speech in February. “It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer,” he added.

Searches conducted in March and April from Canadians for travel to the U.S. dropped 50% from 2024, according to Beyond, a data provider on the global short-term rental market.

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“We saw a nearly immediate drop in Canadian search activity after the tariff news broke back in February,” Julie Brinkman, CEO of Beyond, wrote in an e-mail. “While interest in the U.S. dropped, Mexico saw a 35% increase in searches. That tells us travelers aren’t canceling trips — they’re choosing new destinations.”

Anecdotes on social media support that notion.

“Proud to say we’ve cancelled 3 US based cruises over the next 2 years and instead will be vacationing in Europe and Canada,” one Reddit commenter wrote recently.

Growing concern tied to U.S. immigration policy is perhaps the most consequential development in recent months, experts said.

“Whether fair or not, a perception is taking hold that more people are being detained, more devices [are] being searched and legal travelers [are] being deported back to their origin country,” Freeman said. “That creates a great deal of fear.”

Business profits fall ‘sharply’ amid lost customers

Nationally, small and mid-sized business profits have already “deteriorated sharply” amid the travel slowdown, said Aaron Terrazas, an economist at Gusto, a payroll and benefits provider.

The share of “tourism” companies that are profitable fell to 32% in April 2025, down from 41% and 43% in April 2024 and 2023, respectively, according to Gusto. The category includes tour operators, condo or time-share agencies and ticket or reservation agencies.

The share of profitable “accommodation” businesses fell to 36%, down from 44% and 45%, Gusto found. The category includes small hotels and motels, guesthouses, cottages and cabins, and RV parks and campgrounds.

Tourists visit the Charging Bull of Wall Street in lower Manhattan on March 28, 2025, in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Slower customer traffic — and lost income — are the main culprits, rather than an increase in expenses from inflation or labor costs, Terrazas said.

The erosion in profitability and revenue is “unusually sharp and unusually sudden, particularly for a time of year when we normally start to see travel pick up,” Terrazas said. “There’s no obvious reason why domestic travel would collapse so sharply and so suddenly in a single month, whereas for international travel there are more obvious explanations.”

The longer the slowdown continues, the greater the odds businesses will be forced to make tough choices and potentially cut staff, Terrazas said.

Foreign visitations to the US are the largest services export in the country and the outlook is quickly souring.

Ryan Sweet

chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics

Financial losses come at a time when the U.S. hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels of travel, further pressuring businesses that rely on tourism, Freeman said. The U.S. welcomed 72 million foreign visitors in 2024, shy of the 78 million in 2019, he said.

While non-residents account for less than 10% of all U.S. tourism demand, they are far more “lucrative” spenders, Freeman said.

The average overseas visitor spends more than $4,000 per person per visit, eight times more than the average American tourist spends domestically, Freeman said. The average Canadian and Mexican tourist spends $1,200 per visit.

‘It’s a community impact’

Less foreign travel will have a disproportionate impact on certain areas.

Las Vegas; Los Angeles; Miami; New York; Orlando, Florida; and San Francisco, for example, account for the largest share of foreign tourists, said Sweet of Oxford Economics.

While New York has a large, diverse economy that can likely absorb a tourism loss without going into recession, the same probably isn’t true of places like Las Vegas or Honolulu, he said.

Tourists take photos near the Las Vegas strip.

Robyn Beck | Afp | Getty Images

“These economies are very, very sensitive to tourism,” said Sweet. “This is their main economic driver.”

So far, Matheny, the co-owner of Adrift Restaurant, has seen monthly sales fall 4% relative to last year — not a “huge” decrease, but a “noticeable” one, she said.

The restaurant has had to cut its buying by an equivalent amount, she said. That in turn hurts the local economy in Anacortes, since the restaurant sources the bulk of its food from local farms and fisheries — hurting their bottom lines, too, said Matheny.

“It’s a community impact,” she said.

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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