Accounting
GOP tax bill seen masking more than $1T trillion US debt hit
The cost of Republican lawmakers’ draft plan for sweeping tax cuts weighed in at $3.8 trillion over the next 10 years in one official estimate. The reality is likely much higher, thanks to the use of budget and political tools designed to minimize the appearance of the fiscal hit, according to independent analysts including former Republican staff members.
Budget experts typically calculate the cost of legislation, or “score,” over a 10-year period. But President Donald Trump’s headline-grabbing pledges to remove taxes on tips and overtime are supposed to expire after just four years in the latest bill. That has the effect of downplaying the potential revenue loss if the measures are extended — which Congress has a tendency to do.
It could also raise concerns among investors and economists about the scale of future borrowing needs for a government whose debt load is on track to surpass 118% of the economy’s size by 2035, potentially undermining confidence in U.S. securities.
Republicans are quick to defend the size of the tax cuts, saying they will grow the economy and, with Trump’s tariff policies, bring in trillions of dollars of added revenue to federal coffers — along with savings found by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency.
Speaker Mike Johnson is aiming to secure House approval later this month for a bill that, along with providing Trump’s new benefits, makes permanent the lower income-tax rates set in Trump’s 2017 package. Those rates had been scheduled to expire at the end of this year — something that had limited the official cost of that package in Trump’s first term.
While both Republicans and Democrats have previously used budget tricks to portray a better fiscal impact, the scale of the potentially hidden effects of the GOP tax package is striking, said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the CRFB.
“The entire reason they did this temporarily was to reduce this cost,” Goldwein said. “They are basically trying to hide” the additional costs, he said.
Trump and his cabinet members have argued that official scoring fails to capture hundreds of billions of dollars of future revenue from increased tariffs. They also claim that the administration’s deregulatory agenda will lift burdens on businesses, boosting growth.
“It’s going to go gangbusters,” Jason Smith, the GOP chair of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, said of the economy after the tax bill is enacted. Speaking at an Economic Club of Washington, D.C. event Thursday, he cited measures including 100% expensing of certain business investments and incentives for building factories, along with a lower burden on so-called pass-through businesses. There’ll be a “huge impact to the economy,” he said.
GOP’s argument
Smith also claimed that the $1.5 trillion of spending cuts penciled in for the bill, if followed through on, would be the largest reduction of any bill in legislative history. He disputed critics saying tax cuts will balloon the deficit, arguing that spending is the problem.
Federal revenue makes up about the same share of GDP now, at around 17%, as its average over the past 50 years, and most of the current bill simply extends current tax laws, Smith said.
The combination of Trump’s tax cuts, savings and deregulation means a more likely deficit impact of below $2 trillion over the coming decade, Richard Stern, a fiscal expert at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative-leaning think tank.
“The spending cuts are not going to hold back growth — they are not cutting critical services or going to hold back business flows,” Stern said. “These are cutting largely wasteful and fraudulent spending.”
Unsustainable path
Even without adding to U.S. borrowing needs, the existing run rate has the federal debt burden on a trajectory that most observers, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, view as unsustainable. Annual deficits have been clocking
The debt-to-GDP ratio is heading for a record high in just four years’ time, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
Trump has dubbed the legislation, which includes a slew of spending reductions yet to be specified in detail, “one big, beautiful bill.” Barclays Plc economists on Wednesday titled a research note on the topic, “One big, beautiful” deficit. “Investors in longer U.S. bonds are unlikely to be happy,” they wrote.
By the calculation of G. William Hoagland at the Bipartisan Policy Center, sunsetting many of Trump’s new benefits after four years, the tax bill saved roughly $500 billion.
The draft bill has a deduction for senior citizens sunsetting in four years, with an expanded child tax credit of $2,500 ending Dec. 31, 2028.
“This is an old trick the tax writers do,” Hoagland, a former congressional Republican staff member, said of phasing out a benefit. “From a fiscal perspective, it underestimates the real cost of these bills.”
Rohit Kumar, national tax office co-leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and a former top Senate policy aide, said that if provisions prove “super popular, whoever’s running for president in 2028 can run on renewing them.”
The other way lawmakers tried to cut the bill’s cost was “to put the guardrails around who qualifies,” Kumar added. This included adding income limits for a new deduction aimed at retirees, as well as detailing which industries were eligible for the no-tax-on-tips provision.
Ultimately, the four-year timeline for when the tax cuts expire will only stoke uncertainty for both businesses and individuals, said Goldwein at the CRFB.
“How can you plan around a tax code when large parts of it expire in four years,” he said.
Mauldin & Jenkins, a Top 75 Firm based in Atlanta, is expanding into Greenville, South Carolina by adding Bradshaw, Gordon & Clinkscales, LLC, effective June 1, 2025.
The merger adds seven new partners and 42 professionals to M&J, which already has 76 partners and 510 professionals. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. M&J ranked No. 65 on Accounting Today‘s 2025 list of the Top 100 Firms, with $11.7 million in annual revenue.
“This strategic partnership aligns with our mission to offer comprehensive accounting and advisory solutions to clients while expanding our footprint in key markets,” said Mauldin & Jenkins managing partner Hanson Borders in a statement Thursday. “We are excited to welcome the professionals of BGC to our firm and look forward to building on their legacy of excellence in the Greenville community.”
BGC offers audit, tax and business advisory services to clients and dates back over 40 years. “We are thrilled to join forces with a firm that shares our commitment to client service, integrity and long-term relationships,” said BGC managing partner Peter Tiffany in a statement. “This merger represents a strong cultural fit and an exciting opportunity to expand our capabilities while continuing to put our clients’ needs at the forefront of everything we do.”
Last year, M&J added
Top 25 Firm Armanino has entered the Utah market for the first time by adding Cooper Savas LLC, a CPA firm based in Salt Lake City.
The merger is the second since Armanino
The terms of the deal were not disclosed, but Cooper Savas bring seven partners and 35 professionals to Armanino, which ranked No. 18 on Accounting Today‘s 2025 list of the
“Cooper Savas is an exemplary firm that shows how focusing on culture, talent development and quality service can build a highly successful practice,” said Matt Armanino, CEO of Armanino Advisory LLC, in a statement. “We want the best of the best to join Armanino, and Cooper Savas is a firm that exemplifies that. Their addition to the firm brings incredible talent and exciting opportunities to deliver more for their client base as we expand our national footprint.”
Robert Mooring
Founded in 2011, Cooper Savas offers traditional tax, assurance and accounting services, and gives Armanino its first office in Salt Lake City and an entrée to the Utah market.
“Since our founding, we’ve prided ourselves on our ability to deliver a hands-on, thoughtful approach to clients, and we know that Armanino maintains that shared culture and commitment, making this a great opportunity for our firm,” said Phil Cooper, partner and founder of Cooper Savas, in a statement. “Now we have access to Armanino’s extensive resources and innovative solutions, ensuring that clients can receive end-to-end support for their needs. We’re truly excited for what this partnership unlocks for our firm, our people and our clients.”
Following its October 2024
In February of this year, Armanino acquired Boca Raton, Florida-based ERP and technology consulting firm
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The IRS can share taxpayer data with federal immigration officials only in cases involving immigrants with final deportation orders or ongoing criminal investigations, according to a newly unsealed agreement between the Treasury and Homeland Security departments.
The 13-page memo, signed in April by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, was released Tuesday by order of a federal court in Washington. It permits Immigration and Customs Enforcement to request tax records under a section of the tax code that allows limited disclosures for non-tax criminal matters.
While the memo doesn’t specify what criminal cases may qualify, it does specify other rules. To obtain IRS data, ICE must provide a name, address, and deportation order date, and it’s required to safeguard any information received.
By agreeing to share taxpayer data at all, the IRS is taking an unprecedented step that breaks with longstanding assurances that such information wouldn’t be used to aid in immigration enforcement. Melanie Krause resigned as the acting IRS commissioner last month as the data-sharing arrangement was
A federal judge on Monday ordered the mostly redacted IRS-ICE agreement to be “almost entirely unsealed” in response to a request from the watchdog group American Oversight. In the same ruling, the judge denied a request from two Chicago-based immigrant advocacy groups to block the data-sharing arrangement, saying they lacked standing to challenge it.
Immigrants have for decades been encouraged to pay income taxes regardless of their status. In 1996, the IRS created an individual taxpayer identification number for foreigners who don’t qualify for a Social Security number, allowing them to file returns.
The Trump administration, as part of a broader effort to kick start its promised mass deportation effort, has reinstituted a World War II-era immigrant-registration system and has vowed to fine and criminally charge those in the US without permission who fail to register.
The White House has argued that the data is necessary to help ICE agents confirm the ongoing presence of specific foreigners living in the US illegally. A DHS spokeswoman has repeatedly defended the arrangement, arguing that the administration is using all available tools to help find immigrants in the county without permission.
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