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GOP tax bill seen masking more than $1T trillion US debt hit

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The cost of Republican lawmakers’ draft plan for sweeping tax cuts weighed in at $3.8 trillion over the next 10 years in one official estimate. The reality is likely much higher, thanks to the use of budget and political tools designed to minimize the appearance of the fiscal hit, according to independent analysts including former Republican staff members.

Budget experts typically calculate the cost of legislation, or “score,” over a 10-year period. But President Donald Trump’s headline-grabbing pledges to remove taxes on tips and overtime are supposed to expire after just four years in the latest bill. That has the effect of downplaying the potential revenue loss if the measures are extended — which Congress has a tendency to do.

It could also raise concerns among investors and economists about the scale of future borrowing needs for a government whose debt load is on track to surpass 118% of the economy’s size by 2035, potentially undermining confidence in U.S. securities.

Republicans are quick to defend the size of the tax cuts, saying they will grow the economy and, with Trump’s tariff policies, bring in trillions of dollars of added revenue to federal coffers — along with savings found by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency.

Speaker Mike Johnson is aiming to secure House approval later this month for a bill that, along with providing Trump’s new benefits, makes permanent the lower income-tax rates set in Trump’s 2017 package. Those rates had been scheduled to expire at the end of this year — something that had limited the official cost of that package in Trump’s first term.

Analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a centrist fiscal watchdog group, shows that extending the new benefits for a full decade would take the cumulative increase in the deficit to $5.2 trillion. That compares with an official congressional Joint Committee on Taxation tally of $3.8 trillion. After factoring in spending cuts in Medicaid and other items, the CRFB estimated the deficit boost at $3.3 trillion.

While both Republicans and Democrats have previously used budget tricks to portray a better fiscal impact, the scale of the potentially hidden effects of the GOP tax package is striking, said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the CRFB. 

“The entire reason they did this temporarily was to reduce this cost,” Goldwein said. “They are basically trying to hide” the additional costs, he said.

Trump and his cabinet members have argued that official scoring fails to capture hundreds of billions of dollars of future revenue from increased tariffs. They also claim that the administration’s deregulatory agenda will lift burdens on businesses, boosting growth.

“It’s going to go gangbusters,” Jason Smith, the GOP chair of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, said of the economy after the tax bill is enacted. Speaking at an Economic Club of Washington, D.C. event Thursday, he cited measures including 100% expensing of certain business investments and incentives for building factories, along with a lower burden on so-called pass-through businesses. There’ll be a “huge impact to the economy,” he said.

GOP’s argument

Smith also claimed that the $1.5 trillion of spending cuts penciled in for the bill, if followed through on, would be the largest reduction of any bill in legislative history. He disputed critics saying tax cuts will balloon the deficit, arguing that spending is the problem.

Federal revenue makes up about the same share of GDP now, at around 17%, as its average over the past 50 years, and most of the current bill simply extends current tax laws, Smith said.

The combination of Trump’s tax cuts, savings and deregulation means a more likely deficit impact of below $2 trillion over the coming decade, Richard Stern, a fiscal expert at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative-leaning think tank.

“The spending cuts are not going to hold back growth — they are not cutting critical services or going to hold back business flows,” Stern said. “These are cutting largely wasteful and fraudulent spending.”

Unsustainable path

Even without adding to U.S. borrowing needs, the existing run rate has the federal debt burden on a trajectory that most observers, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, view as unsustainable. Annual deficits have been clocking near $2 trillion in recent years, or more than 6% of gross domestic product.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is heading for a record high in just four years’ time, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Trump has dubbed the legislation, which includes a slew of spending reductions yet to be specified in detail, “one big, beautiful bill.” Barclays Plc economists on Wednesday titled a research note on the topic, “One big, beautiful” deficit. “Investors in longer U.S. bonds are unlikely to be happy,” they wrote.

By the calculation of G. William Hoagland at the Bipartisan Policy Center, sunsetting many of Trump’s new benefits after four years, the tax bill saved roughly $500 billion.

The draft bill has a deduction for senior citizens sunsetting in four years, with an expanded child tax credit of $2,500 ending Dec. 31, 2028.

“This is an old trick the tax writers do,” Hoagland, a former congressional Republican staff member, said of phasing out a benefit. “From a fiscal perspective, it underestimates the real cost of these bills.”

Rohit Kumar, national tax office co-leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and a former top Senate policy aide, said that if provisions prove “super popular, whoever’s running for president in 2028 can run on renewing them.”

The other way lawmakers tried to cut the bill’s cost was “to put the guardrails around who qualifies,” Kumar added. This included adding income limits for a new deduction aimed at retirees, as well as detailing which industries were eligible for the no-tax-on-tips provision.

Ultimately, the four-year timeline for when the tax cuts expire will only stoke uncertainty for both businesses and individuals, said Goldwein at the CRFB.

“How can you plan around a tax code when large parts of it expire in four years,” he said.

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Continuous Auditing Transforms Corporate ERPs

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continuous auditing transforms corporate erps

As corporate accounting departments cross the threshold into late July 2026, the adoption of continuous, automated auditing systems has reached a definitive turning point. Driven by advances in artificial intelligence and deep integration with modern Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) platforms, leading finance organizations are moving away from traditional, periodic post-hoc audits in favor of real-time, 100% transactional verification. This technological transition is redefining internal control environments, reducing compliance costs, and eliminating the structural delays inherent in legacy quarterly closing processes.

Unlike traditional auditing frameworks that rely on statistical sampling—a process that inevitably leaves operational blind spots—continuous auditing software monitors operational data feeds continuously. Every purchase order, electronic invoice, payroll disbursement, and cross-border wire transfer is automatically cross-referenced against established corporate governance parameters, regulatory tax schedules, and anti-fraud algorithms in real time. Anomalies or unauthorized ledger entries are flagged instantly, allowing internal audit teams to investigate and remediate compliance gaps immediately rather than months after the close of a financial period.

The implications for executive financial management are far-reaching. By embedding continuous verification directly into daily transaction workflows, chief financial officers gain uninterrupted visibility into the organization’s true financial standing. Real-time balance sheet auditing eliminates the severe operational bottlenecks associated with month-end and quarter-end financial reconciliations, freeing accounting professionals to focus on strategic financial modeling, tax planning, and capital allocation rather than manual data entry and spreadsheet consolidation.

However, implementing continuous auditing requires accounting leadership to invest heavily in data governance and technical upskilling. Internal audit teams must evolve from manual ledger reviewers into system architects capable of auditing complex algorithms and validating automated data pipelines. Accounting firms and corporate controllers that master continuous auditing will establish a resilient compliance framework capable of meeting stringent international regulatory standards with total transparency.

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U.S. Imposes New 50% Tariffs on Canadian Imports Under Rare Legal Provision

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U.S. Imposes New 50% Tariffs on Canadian Imports Under Rare Legal Provision

WASHINGTON — In a major escalation of cross-border trade friction, U.S. President Donald Trump has signed executive orders imposing new 50% tariffs on a wide selection of Canadian exports, citing discriminatory practices by Ottawa targeting American auto, dairy, and beverage industries.

The new duties, announced Monday, will take effect in 30 days. They target a broad spectrum of consumer and industrial goods—ranging from wine, liquor, and milk products to commercial cement, furniture, clothing, and hockey equipment.

Untested Legal Mechanism

To enact the sweeping measures, the administration invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930—a rarely used legal provision allowing the executive branch to levy additional tariffs of up to 50% on foreign nations deemed to discriminate against U.S. commerce.

White House officials noted that Section 338 addresses trade discrimination rather than national security or economic emergencies. The move comes months after prior global emergency tariffs faced legal challenges in domestic courts, signaling Washington’s pivot toward alternate statutory authorities to maintain import duties.

Senior administration officials briefed reporters that the measure directly responds to Canadian provincial bans on U.S. alcohol, restrictions on American vehicle exports, and import quota disparities affecting U.S. dairy and cheese producers relative to third-party trading partners.

“While the administration continues to secure reciprocal trade agreements globally, Canada retaliated against efforts to protect domestic industry,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated.

USMCA Impact and Carve-Outs

Significantly, the newly ordered 50% duties will apply to designated items even if they otherwise comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

However, the administration confirmed key targeted exemptions:

  • Energy products (including oil and natural gas)
  • Potash and critical minerals
  • Fish and seafood
  • Goods already governed by sector-specific duties (such as existing steel and aluminum tariffs)

Administration representatives emphasized that the tariffs do not stem from recent disputes concerning drifting Canadian wildfire smoke, noting that policy options regarding environmental spillover remain under separate review.

Canadian Response and Market Reaction

Following the White House announcement, the Canadian dollar experienced a sharp decline against the U.S. dollar, falling approximately 0.4% during evening trading.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney issued a statement emphasizing that Canada’s earlier counter-duties had merely matched previous U.S. trade actions. “Canada stands ready to engage intensively to address outstanding issues with the U.S. to the mutual benefit of our citizens,” Carney stated, pointing to detailed proposals Ottawa submitted to modernize the USMCA framework.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford took a firmer stance, urging a “dollar-for-dollar” reciprocal response if the measures go into effect on August 19.

With a 30-day implementation window before the duties officially lock in, industry associations and trade groups on both sides of the border are calling for urgent bilateral negotiations to avert further supply chain disruption across North America.

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Accounting

Automated Continuous Auditing: Transforming Compliance and Real-Time Financial Oversight

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Transforming Compliance and Real-Time Financial Oversight

The traditional accounting paradigm—defined by periodic monthly closures and post-hoc annual audits—is rapidly giving way to continuous, automated financial oversight. As of July 2026, forward-thinking accounting practices and multinational corporate finance departments are leveraging continuous auditing systems powered by advanced machine learning models. These systems monitor operational transactions in real time, shifting audit methodologies from sample-based post-analysis to absolute, 100% transaction-level verification.

The operational advantages of continuous auditing are transformative. Standard auditing procedures historically relied on statistical sampling, which, despite rigorous methodology, inherently left gaps where anomalies or fraudulent transactions could go undetected for months. Modern continuous auditing platforms integrate directly with enterprise resource planning (ERP) databases, instantly cross-referencing purchase orders, invoices, bank feeds, and tax records. Any deviation from established control parameters or unusual transaction behavior triggers immediate flags for internal audit teams, dramatically reducing detection lag from quarters to seconds.

Beyond fraud prevention, continuous auditing fundamentally alters internal reporting and decision-making. Executive leadership no longer has to wait weeks after the close of a quarter to evaluate precise financial standing; real-time verified ledger data provides an uninterrupted view of operating margins, tax liabilities, and cash flow dynamics. This real-time visibility enables corporate controllers to adjust capital allocation strategies dynamically, mitigating liquidity constraints and capitalizing on emerging commercial opportunities far more efficiently than competitors bound to legacy reporting cycles.

However, implementing continuous auditing requires accounting professionals to acquire new analytical capabilities. The role of the auditor is evolving from manual data reconciliation toward system validation, algorithmic model governance, and strategic risk interpretation. Accounting firms and corporate finance departments must invest in continuous technical education, ensuring that audit staff possess the data engineering skills necessary to design, maintain, and evaluate complex automated compliance systems.

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