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Thanks for the hope, Mike Johnson

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This is the introduction to Checks and Balance, a weekly, subscriber-only newsletter bringing exclusive insight from our correspondents in America.

“We can’t play politics on this. We have to do the right thing.” So said Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House of Representatives, in declaring on Wednesday that he would press ahead with a bill to send more military aid to Ukraine despite warnings from fellow Republicans that they might try to eject him from his post. He shrugged the threats aside. “History judges us for what we do,” he said.

What an encouraging sentiment, particularly coming at the same time that a former and maybe future president went on trial over charges that he paid hush money to a porn star and Gallup reported that Americans, having had among the highest confidence in their key institutions of the citizens of G7 nations 20 years ago, now had the lowest. 

Maybe Mr Johnson, who hesitated a dangerously long time before stepping up to Ukraine’s defence, will lose his nerve, or maybe that notable defendant (and social-media mogul), Donald Trump, will undercut him. But if the speaker holds firm, his act of leadership should be inspiring not only because he is facing down bullies such as Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. It is also an encouraging demonstration of moral seriousness because he has changed his mind, and not for reasons of domestic politics.  

Before becoming speaker Mr Johnson, a conservative from Louisiana with a parson’s manner, was a sceptic of aid to Ukraine: he opposed bills in 2022 and 2023 to provide it. But he told reporters that he was alarmed by the intelligence briefings he had received. “I believe Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed,” he said. Better to send aid than troops to Europe, he argued. He has a son about to start at the Naval Academy, Mr Johnson noted, so for his family “this is a live-fire exercise.”

Here’s a third hopeful inference from Mr Johnson’s stand: the resurgent isolationist impulse has not yet taken full command of the Republican Party. Mr Johnson said that support for a country like Ukraine was important not just for Americans but for free people around the world. 

And a fourth: bipartisanship in the cause of common sense is not dead. Once Mr Johnson assumed the speakership he seemed anxious to curry favour with Mr Trump’s base, refusing to bring a bipartisan Senate border-security bill up for a vote after Mr Trump suggested he would prefer to have the problem to campaign on. But he has turned to Democrats to pass spending bills, and he will need their help again now. He takes the heretical view that, to make progress, Republicans must compromise since they control only one branch of government, and barely that. President Joe Biden said he “strongly” supports Mr Johnson’s approach.

Mr Johnson has taken a bill passed by the Senate with a bipartisan majority and broken it into pieces, to finance aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. A fourth bill would include other Republican priorities. He wants to pass all these bills by Saturday evening. Whether or not he succeeds, he could well face a vote by his caucus to remove him as speaker. Ms Greene has already taken the first step towards that. But Mr Johnson said that if he operated out of fear of such threats, he would not be able to do his job properly—words that I wish leaders atop America’s other beleaguered institutions would take to heart.

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Why the president must not be lexicographer-in-chief

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Who decides what legal terms mean? If it is Donald Trump, God help America

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Economics

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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Economics

German inflation May 2025

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19 May 2025, Berlin: Apricots are sold at a greengrocer for 7.98 euros per kilogram. Grapes and papaya are also on offer.

Photo by Jens Kalaene/picture alliance via Getty Images

Germany’s annual inflation hit 2.1% in May approaching the European Central Bank’s 2% target but coming in slightly hotter than analyst estimates, preliminary data from statistics office Destatis showed Friday.

The print compares with a 2.2% reading in April and with a Reuters projection of 2%.

The print is harmonized across the euro zone for comparability.

So-called core inflation, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, dipped slightly from April’s 2.8% to 2.9% in May. The closely watched services print meanwhile eased sharply, coming in at 3.4% compared to 3.9% in the previous month.

Energy prices fell markedly for the second month in a row, tumbling by 4.6% in May.

Germany’s consumer price index has been closing in on the European Central Bank’s 2% target over recent months, in a positive signal amid ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook for Europe’s largest economy.

Domestic and global issues have mired expectations for Germany’s financial future.

One the one hand, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could damage economic growth, given Germany’s status as an export-reliant country, though the potential impact of such duties on inflation remains unclear. But frequent policy shifts and developments have been muddying the picture.

On the other hand, Germany’s newly minted government is starting to get to work and has made the economy a top priority. Questions linger about when and to what extent the new Berlin administration’s policy plans might be realized.

The ECB is set to make its next interest rate decision on June 5, with traders last pricing in an over 96% chance of a quarter point interest rate reduction, according to LSEG data. Back in April, the central bank had cut its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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