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As regime change looms at the Fed, one candidate emerges as frontrunner for chair

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Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, speaks to members of the media outside the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Oct. 24, 2025.

Francis Chung | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President Donald Trump knows who he’s going to select as the next Federal Reserve chair but isn’t saying yet. Prediction markets have their minds made up, but the front-runner also is playing it coy.

While that part of the mystery appears ready to clear up in the coming weeks, what’s far less certain is the type of environment the new central bank leader will face at a potential crossroads for the U.S. economy.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has been dubbed the clear favorite, buoyed by a Bloomberg News report last week that handicapped the five-person race to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term runs out in May.

Asked Sunday about the situation, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, “I know who I am going to pick, yeah. We’ll be announcing it.” Beyond that, he smirked when asked about Hassett, adding “I’m not telling you, we’ll be announcing it.”

The candidate himself made the rounds on the weekend talk circuit, also dodging questions about his prospects. Hassett is part of a field that also includes current Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder.

Former Cleveland Fed Pres. Mester on the next Fed Chair: We need a thoughtful leader

“I’m really honored to be amongst a group of really great candidates,” Hassett said Sunday on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” He did note that markets had a positive reaction to the report of him emerging as the favorite, saying that Americans “could expect President Trump to pick somebody who’s going to help them, you know, have cheaper car loans and easier access to mortgages at lower rates.”

Shortly before that, on Fox News, Hassett merely stated, “If he picks me, I’d be happy to serve.”

Predictions markets have been off to the races in recent days, placing firm odds on Hassett getting the job. As of Monday afternoon, Kalshi traders assigned a 79% probability, while PredictIt put the chance at 75% and Polymarket had it at just 63%, with “no announcement by Christmas” having the second-highest probability of 22%, easily topping any of the other four finalists.

A divided Fed

Whomever the actual pick is will take over a Fed that is currently torn between officials who think additional interest rate cuts are warranted to head off potential trouble in the labor market against those who worry that inflation continues to pose a threat that would be exacerbated by further easing in monetary policy.

For the next rate decision on Dec. 19, futures market traders are assigning an 87.6% chance of a cut in trading that has been highly volatile in recent weeks.

Trump and other administration officials have been vocal about their preference for much lower rates, and the president has stated that is a litmus test for the next chair. In 2026, members of the rotating cast of regional presidents who get a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee will have a hawkish tilt, meaning a preference to fight inflation and hold rates steady.

But the coming Fed regime will be about more than rates.

In a CNBC interview last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the Fed chair search, said he favors a rethink of the Fed’s mission.

“We’ve gotten to this point where monetary policy has gotten very complicated, and it’s more than just cutting rates,” he said. “I think we’ve got to kind of simplify things.”

Call for reform

In particular, Bessent singled out the role of regional presidents.

While they play a relatively limited role — at least compared to the chair and the Board of Governors — in setting rates and other issues related to monetary policy, public commentary from the local leaders can move markets at times.

Bessent said that is part of broader issues related to outsized role the Fed has grown to play in the economy and financial markets, largely since the financial crisis when the central bank played a pivotal role in implementing programs to guide the economy out of its worst slide since the Great Depression.

“I think it’s time for the Fed just to move back into the background like it used to do, calm things down and work for the American people, set monetary policy on a good course,” he said. “All these speeches by these bank presidents … are just redundant. Why don’t they actually just come out and talk about the meaningful issues to the American people, rather than the short term view of the next meeting?”

The view on regional presidents is important in that they come up for reappointment in 2026. While the local board’s hire the presidents, they are subject to the Board of Governors’ approval. One issue Bessent also commented on was that several presidents are not from the districts they represent.

Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz, applauded Bessent’s view.

“We don’t need a play-by-play Fed,” El-Erian said Monday morning on CNBC. “We need the Fed to cool it. We need the Fed to step back and take a bigger, sort of visionary view. And we need reforms. We desperately need reforms. And I think all five on the short list are committed to reforming that institution, which is critical, not just for the U.S. but for the global economy.”

We desperately need reforms at the Federal Reserve, says Mohamed El-Erian

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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