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How the November election may influence Social Security’s future

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Demonstrators attend a rally asking Rep. Kean to “Stop MAGA Cuts! Protect Social Security!” on Feb. 24, 2023 in Bridgewater, New Jersey.

Dave Kotinsky | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Voters who show up at the polls this November may not just be choosing among Republicans, Democrats and third-party tickets — but also casting a vote on the future of Social Security.

Social Security is expected to pay $1.5 trillion in benefits to an average of almost 68 million Americans per month in 2024.

More than half of peak baby boomers — the largest cohort expected to turn 65 by 2030 — are expected to rely primarily on Social Security for income in retirement.

Meanwhile, Social Security’s trust funds are projected to run out in the next decade, which will prompt an across-the-board benefit cut of at least 20% if no changes happen sooner. As Congress weighs that dilemma, they will also decide Social Security’s future role in Americans’ lives.

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Democratic lawmakers like Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., who is running for reelection this year, say today’s benefits are not enough.

“Nobody’s getting wealthy on Social Security,” Larson said in a recent interview with CNBC, noting that more than 5 million Americans receive monthly benefit checks that are below the federal poverty level.

“It is the very sustenance that 40% of all Americans need just to get by, and it hasn’t been adjusted in more than 50 years,” Larson said.

‘Why hasn’t Congress voted?’

In 1983, when the last major Social Security reforms were enacted, there were no benefit enhancements, Larson argued. Among the changes put in place at that time was a gradual increase in the retirement age, taxes on benefit income and reduced benefits for public employees with pensions.

For years, Larson has championed a bill — Social Security 2100 — that aims to increase benefits for all beneficiaries by lifting the payroll tax cap for taxpayers earning over $400,000. Today, annual earnings of up to $168,600 are subject to a 6.2% payroll tax toward Social Security paid by both workers and employers. Larson’s plan also calls for closing loopholes that allow wealthy taxpayers to avoid paying Social Security taxes on other income.

Larson said the public is well aware that Social Security benefits are theirs and they’ve paid for them. Yet the same question comes up again and again: “Why hasn’t Congress voted?”

Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., speaks during an event to introduce legislation called the Social Security 2100 Act. which would increase increase benefits and strengthen the fund, on Capitol Hill on Jan. 30, 2019.

Mark Wilson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The latest version of Larson’s bill has 184 Democratic co-sponsors yet has never been brought to the House floor for a vote.

Another bill, the Social Security Fairness Act, has even broader support, with 318 co-sponsors from both sides of the aisle, yet that also has yet to be put up for a vote. That proposal tackles just two changes also included in Larson’s bill — repealing the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset rules that limit Social Security benefit income for individuals who receive other benefits like pensions from a state or local government.

Retirement age may be pushed higher

Meanwhile, the Republican Study Committee’s budget, comprising proposals from 192 Republican House members, has suggested changes to Social Security, like raising the retirement age, as it seeks to cut federal spending across the board.

Democrats have called out the more than $1.5 trillion in cuts to Social Security that the Republicans’ proposal may entail.

By raising the retirement age for everyone 59 and younger, Budget Committee Democrats estimate that 257 million people would have to work longer.  

The Republican budget proposal has prompted fears that the party could move to enact those changes through a closed-door commission, Nancy Altman, president of advocacy organization Social Security Works, testified before the House Ways and Means Committee last week.

In response, Rep. Drew Ferguson, R-Georgia, who serves as chairman of the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security, said the committee would not be voting on the Republican budget proposal.

“I have said many times that the only way that this gets solved is in a bipartisan open forum,” said Ferguson during the hearing.

Path to bipartisan compromise uncertain

But how a bipartisan effort should proceed is up for debate.

Larson hopes to bring his Social Security 2100 proposal to the House floor for a vote, betting that some Republicans may come around and back making benefits more generous.

The extra money sent to the nation’s seniors would be spent in their districts, he argued. Moreover, the tax increases would require wealthy individuals to pay what every other working American is already contributing to Social Security, he said.

Typical Gen X household only has $40K in retirement savings in private accounts

During last week’s hearing, Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, said that while he respects Larson’s passion, he still expects it will be necessary for lawmakers to agree on some combination of tax increases and benefit cuts that will affect future beneficiaries.

Experts including Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, agreed.

“The size of the shortfall now is so huge, and so far beyond anything that lawmakers have successfully closed before, the notion that either party can ram through its preferred solution is fanciful,” Blahous said.

Benefits are regularly increased, Blahous argues, through changes to the initial benefit formula and cost-of-living adjustments.

Larson, for his part, has vowed to “never give up, never relent,” when it comes to pushing for his proposal.

Social Security advocates argue that those changes are what people want.

“If you expand Social Security’s benefits … and you pay for it by requiring the uber wealthy to pay their fair share, you will receive widespread praise and the gratitude of the nation,” Altman told members of the House Ways and Means Committee last week.

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Average 401(k) savings rate hits a record high. See if you’re on track

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The average 401(k) plan savings rate recently notched a new record high — and the percentage is nearing a widely-used rule of thumb.

During the first quarter of 2025, the 401(k) savings rate, including employee and company contributions, jumped to 14.3%, according to Fidelity’s quarterly analysis of 25,300 corporate plans with 24.4 million participants.

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Despite economic uncertainty, “we definitely saw a lot of positive behaviors continue into Q1,” said Mike Shamrell, vice president of thought leadership for Fidelity’s Workplace Investing. 

The report found that employees deferred a milestone 9.5% into 401(k) plans during the first quarter, and companies contributed 4.8%. The combined 14.3% rate is the closest it’s ever been to Fidelity’s recommended 15% savings target.    

Two-thirds of increased employee deferrals during the first quarter came from “auto-escalations,” which automatically boost savings rates over time, usually in tandem with salary increases, Shamrell said.

You should aim to save at least 15% of pre-tax income each year, including company deposits, to maintain your current lifestyle in retirement, according to Fidelity. This assumes you save continuously from ages 25 to 67.

But the exact right percentage for each individual hinges on several things, such as your existing nest egg, planned retirement date, pensions and other factors, experts say.

“There’s no magic rate of savings,” because everyone spends and saves differently, said certified financial planner Larry Luxenberg, founder of Lexington Avenue Capital Management in New City, New York. “That’s the case before and after retirement.”

There’s no magic rate of savings.

Larry Luxenberg

Founder of Lexington Avenue Capital Management

Don’t miss ‘free money’ from your employer

If you can’t reach the 15% retirement savings benchmark, Shamrell suggests deferring at least enough to get your employer’s full 401(k) matching contribution.

Most companies will match a percentage of your 401(k) deferrals up to a certain limit. These deposits could also be subject to a “vesting schedule,” which determines your ownership based on the length of time you’ve been with your employer.

Still, “this probably [is] the closest thing a lot of people are going to get to free money in their life,” he said.

The most popular 401(k) match formula — used by 48% of companies on Fidelity’s platform — is 100% for the first 3% an employee contributes, and 50% for the next 2%.

Department of Labor changes retirement account guardrails

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Personal Finance

Average 401(k) balances fall due to market volatility, Fidelity says

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A few months of market swings have taken a toll on retirement savers.

The average 401(k) balance fell 3% in the first quarter of 2025 to $127,100, according to a new report by Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans.

The average individual retirement account balance also sank 4% from the previous quarter to $121,983, the financial services firm found. Still, both 401(k) and IRA balances were up year over year.

The majority of retirement savers continue to contribute, Fidelity said. The average 401(k) contribution rate, including employer and employee contributions, increased to 14.3%, just shy of Fidelity’s suggested savings rate of 15%.

“Although the first quarter of 2025 posed challenges for retirement savers, it’s encouraging to see people take a continuous savings approach which focuses on their long-term retirement goals,” Sharon Brovelli, president of workplace investing at Fidelity Investments, said in a statement. “This approach will help individuals weather any type of market turmoil and stay on track.”

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U.S. markets have been under pressure ever since the White House first announced country-specific tariffs on April 2.

Since then, ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and European Union as well as China, largely due to President Donald Trump‘s on-again, off-again negotiations, caused some of the worst trading days for the S&P 500 since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, more recently, markets largely rebounded from earlier losses. As of Wednesday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was roughly flat year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were up around 1% in 2025.

‘Have a long-term strategy’

“It’s important to not get too unnerved by market swings,” said Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president of thought leadership.

Even for those nearing retirement age, those savings should have a time horizon of at least 10 to 20 years, he said, which means it’s better to “have a long-term strategy and not a short-term reaction.”

Intervening, or trying to time the market, is almost always a bad idea, said Gil Baumgarten, CEO and founder of Segment Wealth Management in Houston.

“People lose sight of the long-term benefits of investing in volatile assets, they stay focused on short-term market movements, and had they stayed put, the market would have corrected itself,” he said. “The math is so compelling to look past all that and let the stock market work itself out.”

For example, the 10 best trading days by percentage gain for the S&P 500 over the past three decades all occurred during recessions, often in close proximity to the worst days, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published last year.

And, although stocks go up and down, the S&P 500 index has an average annualized return of more than 10% over the past few decades. In fact, since 1950, the S&P has delivered positive returns 77% of the time, according to CNBC’s analysis.

“Really, you should just be betting on equities rising over time,” Baumgarten said.

Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.

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Personal Finance

Why on-time debt payments may not boost your credit score

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Asiavision | E+ | Getty Images

Americans have a near-record level of credit card debt — $1.18 trillion as of the first quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The average credit card debt per borrower was $6,371 during that time, based on data from TransUnion, one of the three major credit reporting companies.

Many people don’t understand why a common strategy that can help them pay down that debt — paying bills on time — isn’t all it takes to improve their credit. Separating fact from fiction is essential to help you pay down debt and raise your credit score. 

Here’s the truth behind a common credit myth: 

Myth: Paying bills on time ensures a high credit score. 

Fact: Your payment history is critical to your credit score. However, not all bill payments are treated equally, and making them on time isn’t all that counts.

Your credit score is a three-digit numerical snapshot, typically ranging from 300 to 850, that lets lenders know how likely you are to repay a loan. The average American’s score is 715, according to February data from scoring brand FICO.

What's a credit score?

Here’s what you need to know about on-time payments and your credit:

Not all debt payments factor into credit scores

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While some BNPL providers do report certain loans to the credit bureaus, this is not a universal practice. And BNPL users may see a negative credit impact if they fall behind.

“Some BNPL lenders will report missed payments, which can hurt your score,” said Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree and author of “Ask Questions, Save Money, Make More.”

An easy way to check what payments are and aren’t influencing your credit: take a look at your credit report. You can pull it for free, weekly, for each of the major credit reporting agencies at Annualcreditreport.com.

‘Go for the A+’ on credit usage

Julpo | E+ | Getty Images

While payment history can account for 35% of your score, according to FICO, it’s not the only factor that matters. How much you owe relative to how much credit you have available to you — known as your “credit utilization” — is almost as important, at about 30% of your score. 

Higher utilization can hurt your score. Aim to use less than 30% of your available credit across all accounts, credit experts say, and keep it below 10% if you really want to improve your credit score. 

A 2024 LendingTree study found that consumers with credit scores of 720 and up had a utilization rate of 10.2%, compared with 36.2% for those with credit scores of 660 to 719.

“Don’t settle for B+ when you can go for the A+,” said Espinal, who is also the author of “Mind Your Money” and a member of the CNBC Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board. “You want to use less than 10% to really boost your score significantly.”

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