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How the November election may influence Social Security’s future

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Demonstrators attend a rally asking Rep. Kean to “Stop MAGA Cuts! Protect Social Security!” on Feb. 24, 2023 in Bridgewater, New Jersey.

Dave Kotinsky | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Voters who show up at the polls this November may not just be choosing among Republicans, Democrats and third-party tickets — but also casting a vote on the future of Social Security.

Social Security is expected to pay $1.5 trillion in benefits to an average of almost 68 million Americans per month in 2024.

More than half of peak baby boomers — the largest cohort expected to turn 65 by 2030 — are expected to rely primarily on Social Security for income in retirement.

Meanwhile, Social Security’s trust funds are projected to run out in the next decade, which will prompt an across-the-board benefit cut of at least 20% if no changes happen sooner. As Congress weighs that dilemma, they will also decide Social Security’s future role in Americans’ lives.

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Democratic lawmakers like Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., who is running for reelection this year, say today’s benefits are not enough.

“Nobody’s getting wealthy on Social Security,” Larson said in a recent interview with CNBC, noting that more than 5 million Americans receive monthly benefit checks that are below the federal poverty level.

“It is the very sustenance that 40% of all Americans need just to get by, and it hasn’t been adjusted in more than 50 years,” Larson said.

‘Why hasn’t Congress voted?’

In 1983, when the last major Social Security reforms were enacted, there were no benefit enhancements, Larson argued. Among the changes put in place at that time was a gradual increase in the retirement age, taxes on benefit income and reduced benefits for public employees with pensions.

For years, Larson has championed a bill — Social Security 2100 — that aims to increase benefits for all beneficiaries by lifting the payroll tax cap for taxpayers earning over $400,000. Today, annual earnings of up to $168,600 are subject to a 6.2% payroll tax toward Social Security paid by both workers and employers. Larson’s plan also calls for closing loopholes that allow wealthy taxpayers to avoid paying Social Security taxes on other income.

Larson said the public is well aware that Social Security benefits are theirs and they’ve paid for them. Yet the same question comes up again and again: “Why hasn’t Congress voted?”

Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., speaks during an event to introduce legislation called the Social Security 2100 Act. which would increase increase benefits and strengthen the fund, on Capitol Hill on Jan. 30, 2019.

Mark Wilson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The latest version of Larson’s bill has 184 Democratic co-sponsors yet has never been brought to the House floor for a vote.

Another bill, the Social Security Fairness Act, has even broader support, with 318 co-sponsors from both sides of the aisle, yet that also has yet to be put up for a vote. That proposal tackles just two changes also included in Larson’s bill — repealing the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset rules that limit Social Security benefit income for individuals who receive other benefits like pensions from a state or local government.

Retirement age may be pushed higher

Meanwhile, the Republican Study Committee’s budget, comprising proposals from 192 Republican House members, has suggested changes to Social Security, like raising the retirement age, as it seeks to cut federal spending across the board.

Democrats have called out the more than $1.5 trillion in cuts to Social Security that the Republicans’ proposal may entail.

By raising the retirement age for everyone 59 and younger, Budget Committee Democrats estimate that 257 million people would have to work longer.  

The Republican budget proposal has prompted fears that the party could move to enact those changes through a closed-door commission, Nancy Altman, president of advocacy organization Social Security Works, testified before the House Ways and Means Committee last week.

In response, Rep. Drew Ferguson, R-Georgia, who serves as chairman of the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security, said the committee would not be voting on the Republican budget proposal.

“I have said many times that the only way that this gets solved is in a bipartisan open forum,” said Ferguson during the hearing.

Path to bipartisan compromise uncertain

But how a bipartisan effort should proceed is up for debate.

Larson hopes to bring his Social Security 2100 proposal to the House floor for a vote, betting that some Republicans may come around and back making benefits more generous.

The extra money sent to the nation’s seniors would be spent in their districts, he argued. Moreover, the tax increases would require wealthy individuals to pay what every other working American is already contributing to Social Security, he said.

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During last week’s hearing, Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, said that while he respects Larson’s passion, he still expects it will be necessary for lawmakers to agree on some combination of tax increases and benefit cuts that will affect future beneficiaries.

Experts including Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, agreed.

“The size of the shortfall now is so huge, and so far beyond anything that lawmakers have successfully closed before, the notion that either party can ram through its preferred solution is fanciful,” Blahous said.

Benefits are regularly increased, Blahous argues, through changes to the initial benefit formula and cost-of-living adjustments.

Larson, for his part, has vowed to “never give up, never relent,” when it comes to pushing for his proposal.

Social Security advocates argue that those changes are what people want.

“If you expand Social Security’s benefits … and you pay for it by requiring the uber wealthy to pay their fair share, you will receive widespread praise and the gratitude of the nation,” Altman told members of the House Ways and Means Committee last week.

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The U.S. government is phasing out paper checks. What that means for you

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Checks are printed at the U.S. Treasury Philadelphia Finance Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Dennis Brack | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Paper checks were already dying a slow death.

President Donald Trump on March 25 signed an executive order mandating that all federal departments and agencies end their use of paper checks and switch to electronic payments by Sept. 30.

The U.S. Treasury now has about six months to phase out the paper checks it uses for various purposes, including tax refunds and the roughly 456,000 Social Security checks that are mailed monthly.

The executive order will “modernize how the government handles money, switching from old-fashioned paper-based payments to fast, secure electronic payments,” the administration said in a fact sheet on the order.

“Paper-based payments, such as checks and money orders, impose unnecessary costs, delays, and risks of fraud, lost payments, theft, and inefficiencies,” the White House said.

Under the order, all government departments and agencies will have to issue disbursements via electronic transfer methods, like direct deposit, debit or credit card payments, digital wallets and real-time transfers.

Consumers will have until then to set up an online bank account or some form of digital payment option, with limited exceptions for those who do not have access to banking services or electronic payment systems.

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Banking groups applauded the move.

“We welcome President Trump’s executive order mandating that the federal government cease issuing paper checks for all disbursements, including government benefits and tax refunds,” Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association said in a statement. “Despite a continued decline in business and consumer use of checks, check fraud has continued to rise.”

Check fraud, mail theft and identity scams have exploded in recent years, according to Haywood Talcove, CEO of LexisNexis Risk Solutions’ government group. A 2024 report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office estimated that the federal government could lose between $233 billion and $521 billion a year to fraud.

“Checks aren’t safe anymore,” Talcove said. “It’s where the criminal groups are feasting.”

As part of the executive order, payments made to the federal government — such as fees, fines, loans and tax refunds — must also be made electronically.

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With significant advancements in security — thanks to authentication, monitoring and data encryption — retailers’ and consumers’ shift to contactless and digital payment methods will only continue to grow, accelerating the move toward a “check zero” world, according to Scott Anchin, vice president of operational risk and payments policy for the Independent Community Bankers of America. 

However, there are still certain groups that rely on paper checks, including some of the nation’s most vulnerable populations such as social security beneficiaries and those who receive rental assistance, or Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.

Check writers generally skew older and are likely at the margins of the banking community, according to Anchin. Americans over the age of 55 were most likely to write checks every month, the survey from GoBankingRates found.

But these groups are also most at risk of being targeted by scammers, Talcove said. “The elderly are significantly disadvantaged by the antiquated systems and you have to get them into digital payments.”

The death of checks

Although checks, as we know them today, first originated in the 11th century, they didn’t become mainstream until the early 20th century following the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, according to a historical survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

But back then, “everyday people didn’t have checking accounts, that was for rich people,” Stephen Quinn, professor of economics at Texas Christian University and co-author of the Atlanta Fed’s report, previously told CNBC. “It wasn’t until after World War II that checking accounts were a common thing.”

Postwar prosperity greatly expanded the use of checking accounts to middle-class households, making checks the most widely used noncash payment method in the U.S., according to the Atlanta Fed.

Personal checks continued to gain steam until the mid-1990s, when credit and debit cards largely took over. Since 2000, check-writing has plummeted by nearly 75%, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Despite the rapid decline, “a form of payment with a thousand-year history is unlikely to vanish overnight,” the Atlanta Fed report said.

And yet, today’s young adults are increasingly eschewing the traditional banking and credit infrastructure altogether in favor of peer-to-peer payment apps.

Quinn said his students rely almost exclusively on digital wallet payments such as Apple Pay, Venmo and Zelle — hardly anyone carries cash, and it’s likely that few even know how to write a check.

Mobile payment apps have become de facto bank accounts even though, unlike banks or credit unions, these financial services are not FDIC-insured.

Still, there remains a place for personal checks, Quinn said.

“The paper check might linger where it began, at the high end — for large one-off payments,” he said, such as charitable donations or real estate transactions. “In this way, checks might hold on for some time.”

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Social Security changes may impact customer service, benefit payments

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A Social Security Administration (SSA) office in Washington, DC, March 26, 2025. 

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

Fast-moving changes at the Social Security Administration by the Trump administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency have prompted concerns that it may be more difficult for beneficiaries to access the agency’s services.

Some experts are raising concerns that efforts to update the agency’s systems could impact the continuity of benefits.

“Now I’m concerned that benefits could get disrupted,” said Jason Fichtner, a former deputy commissioner at the Social Security Administration who was appointed by President George W. Bush.

Recent changes that have been announced by the agency are cause for concern, experts including Fichtner say.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly vowed not to touch Social Security benefits. Yet recent changes could make it more difficult for eligible Americans to access benefits.

The SSA under the Trump administration has moved to eliminate 7,000 Social Security employees and close six regional offices, Fichtner and Kathleen Romig, a former Social Security Administration senior official, wrote in a recent op-ed. Romig is the director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

The cuts will affect the service Americans receive when they either visit Social Security’s website, which has experienced glitches; call its 800 number, which has long wait times; or visit a field office, which can be crowded, they wrote.

That may make it more difficult for eligible Americans to claim benefits, particularly those with disabilities, who may run the risk of dying before receiving the money for which they are eligible.

The Social Security Administration is in crisis, and people’s benefits are at risk,” Fichtner and Romig wrote.

‘You have to understand the complexity of the programs’

Fichtner said his worries are elevated following reports that the Social Security Administration under DOGE plans to move “tens of millions of lines of code” written in a programming language known as COBOL within an accelerated time frame of a few months.

“If you start messing with the system’s code, that could impact those who are currently getting benefits now, and that’s a new front-and-center concern,” said Fichtner, who is a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance and executive director at the Retirement Income Institute at the Alliance for Lifetime Income.

While the Social Security’s systems could use an upgrade, projects of this size are typically handled over a period of years, not months, Fichtner said. Moreover, they typically start out with smaller tests, such as with one state, to identify bugs or other issues, before expanding regionally and then nationally, he said.

“You can’t just flip a switch one night and expect to be able to upgrade,” Fichtner said. “It takes due diligence, and you have to understand the complexity of the programs.”

Before the COBOL transition reports, Fichtner said he had not been worried about benefit interruptions, though he had been concerned that changes at the agency may impact customer service and that applicants for benefits may see delays.

“There is no validity to these reports,” a Social Security Administration spokesperson told CNBC via email.

In an email statement, the White House also said, “There is no validity to these reports.”

Bigger reforms should be focus, experts say

As DOGE seeks to eliminate fraud at the Social Security Administration, some experts say the focus is misplaced.

To that point, focusing on the agency’s administrative side takes away from the bigger issue the program faces of the looming depletion of the trust funds it uses to help pay benefits, experts say.

DOGE may have good intentions to make the Social Security Administration more efficient, but its actions may not “meaningfully change the financial trajectory of the program,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.

If DOGE makes changes that have to be reversed, that could get in the way of the benefit reforms that Congress must also consider before a projected 2033 trust fund depletion date, she said.

“Current erratic actions have the potential to undermine those much more important, bigger reforms in a misguided attempt to root out very small levels of fraud,” Boccia said.

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The Social Security’s trustees in 2024 projected the program’s combined retirement and disability trust funds may last until 2035, at which point just 83% of benefits will be payable unless Congress finds a way to fix the situation sooner.

Those 2024 projections also found the retirement trust fund on its own faces a sooner depletion date of 2033, when 79% of benefits may be payable. A new law that provides more generous benefits for certain public pensioners is expected to move the projected depletion dates closer.

Because the Social Security Administration’s administrative budget is less than 1% of outlays, it’s not the best area to focus on to make the program more cost-effective and efficient, said Charles Blahous, a former public trustee for Social Security and Medicare and deputy director of President George W. Bush’s National Economic Council.

“There’s just not enough money there to make serious headway,” said Blahous, a senior research strategist at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center.

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How entrepreneurial military spouses build retirement security

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fstop123 | E+ | Getty Images

It’s scary enough for individuals to take a chance on themselves and start their own business, but the spouses of military servicemembers are often grappling with a unique set of hurdles on the journey toward entrepreneurship.

Certified financial planner Adrienne Ross can speak to that personally. She and her now-retired Marine Corps husband were constantly on the move during his military career, and that made the complicated process of earning her bachelor’s degree a yearslong process.

“We would move, and it would be like going through the process all over again,” recalled Ross, a partner at Clear Insight Wealth Management in Spokane, Wash. “I went to multiple colleges to complete a degree, and we were never in one place long enough.”

She ultimately completed her education at the University of Illinois Springfield through an online program while she and her family were living outside the U.S., but the ordeal informed her decision to become a financial planner, hang out her own shingle and work with military families toward financial stability.

“The client base I focused on serving is military families because I understand what it’s like to move all the time and have so many disruptions to your work life and personal life – and how it impacts your financial journey as well,” she said.

Unique advantages and disadvantages

The itinerant lifestyle that Ross grappled with as she worked on her degree can be a handicap for military spouses who are trying to build out a business.

“The number one additional hurdle would be things like business licensing,” said Bill Sweet, CFP and CFO at Ritholtz Wealth Management and U.S. Army combat veteran. “Each state and municipality will have its own licensing requirements, and there isn’t always reciprocity.” That’s often the case for teachers and nurses, for example.

“If you’re moving around every two to three years to follow your spouse, it becomes difficult to redo your nursing license on a business income,” he said. “But when it comes to things like retirement savings, I think there are a lot of neat things you can do.”

Servicemembers can enroll in the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan, for instance, which offers benefits and savings like the 401(k) plans available to private-sector employees.

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A spousal individual retirement account might be a good starting point for military spouses, even if they themselves aren’t yet employed. The servicemember can sock away up to $7,000 in 2025 ($8,000 for those age 50 and older) into the spouse’s IRA. To make this work, the married couple must be filing jointly.

“Most families today live on two incomes, so they should plan on retiring on two incomes,” said John Power, CFP at Power Plans in Walpole, Mass. “Every military spouse should have a spousal IRA. The IRS allows you to deduct from your income to contribute to your spouse’s IRA – and if you can do that, you should do that.”

While the spousal IRA is enough to start stashing money away for retirement, entrepreneurs can take other steps to beef up their savings as their business grows.

In Ross’s case, she started out with a Roth IRA – a retirement account where contributions are made on an after-tax basis but grow tax free and, most importantly, are free of tax upon withdrawal. “I love Roth IRAs,” she said. “They are super flexible, available to many people and very attainable, especially if you’re getting started with a small business.”

Roth IRA contribution limits are capped at $7,000 for those under 50 ($8,000 for those 50 and over). Be aware that if you have both a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA, the contribution limit of $7,000 is an aggregate amount. The upshot of Roth IRAs? You don’t need a whole lot of money to start saving in the first place.

“You can start with as little as $50 a month, and in most places fees are very reasonable,” Ross said.

Graduating to more complex savings options

When Ross’s business grew, she shifted into using a simplified employee pension plan, or SEP IRA, for retirement savings. These plans are specifically for small businesses, and they don’t come with the hefty start-up costs you might see in conventional retirement plans.

The upshot for young businesses is that the annual contributions to SEP IRAs are flexible, which can be handy in the early years when cash flow is inconsistent. Generally, these accounts allow for a contribution of up to 25% of an employee’s pay (or up to $70,000 in 2025). It should be noted that participant loans are not allowed under these arrangements, however.

“In terms of planning your own retirement, treat the business like a job and treat yourself as an employee of that business,” said Sean Gillespie, president of Redeployment Wealth Strategies in Virginia Beach, Va. “Take the proceeds and feed your retirement the way you would if you were [a W-2 employee] working for someone else.”

Eventually, Ross and Gillespie partnered with another advisor to form a registered investment advisory firm called Apforia. Because of this arrangement, they had the assets and the economy of scale needed to start a 401(k) plan.

In 2025, individuals can put away up to $23,500 in a 401(k) plan, plus $7,500 if they’re 50 and over (or up to an additional $11,250 for employees aged 60 to 63).

It’s OK to seek help

Military spouses seeking to make the leap into entrepreneurship should leverage their connections to peers.

“Having that connection to other military spouses who have their own businesses was really important,” said Ross. “They have that same understanding of what it’s like to be living a nomadic life and trying to build a business or career for yourself despite all of that.”

They should also invest in themselves by calling in a financial planner or an accountant who can help them build a resilient and healthy business.

“Ultimately, I think working with a professional will pay off, and being proactive,” said Sweet. “Pay a little out of pocket and talk to a CPA or CFP about setting up a business.”

JOIN the CNBC CFP® Circle for Mission: Money Management on April 1. This exclusive virtual roundtable, held in partnership with The Association of Military Spouse Entrepreneurs, will focus on how to best manage money effectively. Get your free ticket today!

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