Connect with us

Economics

UK to suffer slowest growth of all rich nations next year, OECD says

Published

on

People walk in the rain over London Bridge in central London. Picture date: Tuesday March 12, 2024.

Lucy North – Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty Images

The U.K.’s “sluggish” growth prospects have put it on course to be the worst-performing economy of all advanced nations next year, according to new forecasts from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

U.K. gross domestic product is expected to grow 0.4% in 2024, the Paris-based think tank said Thursday in its latest global economic outlook. That figure is down from a previous prediction of 0.7% and less than all other G7 countries besides Germany, which is expected to be 0.2%.

The British economy is then forecast to expand by 1% in 2025, behind Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the U.S. as the lingering effects of high interest rates and inflation continue to weigh.

The downbeat prediction comes as the global economy shows signs of recovery, with growth forecast to remain steady at 3.1% in 2024 before rising modestly to 3.2% in 2025.

“We start seeing some recovery in many parts of the world,” Alvaro Pereira, director of the OECD’s policy studies branch, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro Thursday.

OECD’s Pereira: Seeing some recovery in many parts of the world

Growth among advanced nations next year is set to be led by North America, which Pereira said follows “strong growth” forecasts of 2.6% in the U.S. in 2024. Growth in Europe, meanwhile, is expected to pick up next year after a sluggish 2024.

Among emerging economies, the OECD said there were also signs of strength. In China, where the economy has struggled in part due to a protracted downturn in the property market, growth projections were revised upward slightly from earlier forecasts, which Pereira said was due to “stronger performance than in the recent past.”

The OECD said the global outlook was an indication that central banks’ efforts to quell inflation were working.

“Monetary policy is doing what it should be doing,” Pereira said. “Real incomes are starting to recover. This will help consumption. We also think inflation is starting to come down.”

However, he added that questions remain over how robust the global recovery would be, particularly as central banks show signs of divergence on the future path of interest rates.

“The risk is obviously if inflation continues to be stickier than we expect, then obviously it’s possible that monetary policy will have to remain restrictive for a bit longer,” Pereira noted.

According to the OECD, headline inflation among its 38 member nations is expected to dip to 5% in 2024 from 6.9% in 2023, and then fall further to 3.4% in 2025. By the end of 2025, inflation is expected to return to targets of around 2% in most major economies, the OECD said.

Don’t miss these exclusives from CNBC PRO

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

Published

on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

Continue Reading

Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

Published

on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

Continue Reading

Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

Published

on

Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

Continue Reading

Trending