Connect with us

Economics

Credit default swaps are in demand again amid U.S. fiscal worries

Published

on

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell on May 27, 2025, in New York City.

Timothy A. Clary | Afp | Getty Images

Investors are getting nervous the U.S. government might struggle to pay its debt — and they are snapping up insurance in case it defaults.

The cost of insuring exposure to U.S. government debt has been rising steadily and is hovering near its highest level in two years, according to LSEG data.

Spreads or premiums on U.S. 1-year credit default swaps were up at 52 basis points as of Wednesday from 16 basis points at the start of this year, LSEG data showed.

Credit default swaps are like insurance for investors. Buyers pay a fee to protect themselves in case the borrower — in this case the U.S. government — can’t repay their debt. When the cost of insuring the U.S. debt goes up, it’s a sign that investors are getting nervous.

Spreads on the CDS with 5-year tenor were at nearly 50 basis points compared with about 30 basis points at the start of the year. In a CDS contract, the buyer pays a recurring premium known as the spread to the seller. If a borrower, in this case, the U.S. government defaults on its debt, the seller must compensate the buyer.

chart visualization

CDS prices reflect how risky a borrower seems and are used to guard against signs of financial trouble, not just a full-blown default, said Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager in Eastspring Investments’ fixed income team.

The recent surge in demand for CDS contracts is a “hedge against political risk, not insolvency,” said Goh, underscoring the broader anxiety about U.S. fiscal policy and “political dysfunction,” rather than a market view that the government is verging on failing to meet its obligation.

Investors are pricing in the increased concerns around the unresolved debt ceiling, several industry watchers said.

“The credit default swaps have become popular again as the debt ceiling remains unresolved,” said Freddy Wong, head of Asia Pacific at Invesco fixed income, pointing out that the U.S. Treasury has reached the statutory debt limit in January 2025.

The Congressional Budget Office said in a March notice that the Treasury had already reached the current debt limit of $36.1 trillion and had no room to borrow, “other than to replace maturing debt.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that his department was tallying the federal tax receipts collected around April 15 filing deadline to come up with a more precise forecast for the so-called “X-date,” referring to when the U.S. government will exhaust its borrowing capacity.

Data from Morningstar shows that spikes in CDS spreads on U.S. government debt have typically aligned with periods of heightened worries around U.S. government’s debt limit, particularly in 2011, 2013 and in 2023.

Wong pointed out that there are still several months before the U.S. reaches the X-date.

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a major tax cut package which could reportedly see the debt ceiling raised by $4 trillion, pending approval from the Senate.

In a May 9 letter, Bessent urged congressional leaders to extend the debt ceiling by July, before Congress leaves for its annual August recess, in order to avert economic calamity, but warned “significant uncertainty” in the exact date.

“There is still enough time for the Senate to pass its version of the bill by late July to avoid a technical default in U.S. Treasury,” added Wong.

During the debt ceiling crisis in 2023, the U.S. Congress passed a bill suspending the debt ceiling just days before the U.S. government entered into a technical default.

In the past, the U.S. has come dangerously close to a default but in each case, Congress acted last minute to raise or suspend the ceiling.

Fiscal reckoning

The surge in CDS prices is likely a “short-lived” reaction while investors wait for a new budget deal to raise the debt limit. It is unlikely a sign of an impending financial crisis, according to industry watchers.

During the 2008 financial meltdown, institutions and investors actively traded CDS linked to mortgage-backed securities, many of which were filled with high-risk subprime loans. When mortgage defaults soared, these securities plummeted in value, resulting in enormous CDS payout obligations.

However, the implications for soaring demand for sovereign CDS are very different compared to demand for corporate CDS which was the case in 2008, where investors were making an actual call about growing default risk at corporations, said Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management.

“Traders seem to believe that CDS provides a speculative instrument for betting on a government debt crisis, which I view as extremely unlikely,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, who added that the the U.S. will “always prioritize” paying interest on its debt.

“The U.S. government won’t default on its debt. The fear that it might do so is not justified,” he told CNBC.

Moody’s earlier this month downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing the government’s deteriorating fiscal health. 

Should the Senate pass the bill in time, the massive ceiling increase will push up the Treasury supply, putting the U.S. fiscal deficit condition back in the spotlight, Wong warned.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

Published

on

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

Continue Reading

Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

Published

on

Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

Continue Reading

Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

Published

on

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

Continue Reading

Trending