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Here’s what a ‘buffalo’ market means for investors

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The Charging Bull in the Financial District in New York City.

Mairo Cinquetti | Nurphoto | Getty Images

After weeks of hitting new highs, the S&P 500 index on Wednesday suffered its worst trading session since 2022.

The market broadly began to recover Thursday amid a sell-off in technology stocks. Experts say those stock moves and shuffling sectors are common during a bull market.

But Bank of America is calling today’s conditions something else — a buffalo market — which is still in the bull family. But unlike the bull market, it may get tired after a strong runup.

“It might roam, it might wander in the summer months,” said Marci McGregor, head of portfolio strategy at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “But ultimately, what will turn the buffalo back to a proper bull is fundamentals.”

The firm’s outlook sees markets finishing higher this year, based on factors including earnings, the investment cycle, financial conditions, interest rates and generative artificial intelligence.

“We think those fundamental ingredients are in place for the uptrend to continue,” McGregor said. “But you may get some choppiness.”

Expect a pickup in volatility around the election

Election years also tend to come with distinct market patterns.

From July through November, investors can expect a choppy feeling to the markets, McGregor said.

Once the election is over, there may be a strong broader direction in November and December.

Bank of America therefore expects U.S. equities to end the year higher than where they are today, she said.

Those patterns tend to hold true regardless of the outcome on Election Day, according to McGregor.

Expect to see a lot of market volatility for the next several months: Hightower's Stephanie Link

To best forecast how investments will fare under the next presidential administration, it is wise to pay more attention to policy than politics, McGregor said. The policies that are actually put into effect will have a bigger influence on sectors, industries and companies than which party is elected to power.

The current earnings recovery — following an earnings recession in the first half of last year — is a bigger factor to watch now, McGregor said.

“Ultimately, I think this really comes back to earnings,” McGregor said. “That’s what I really see as the catalyst for the next rotation of the market, more so than the election.”

Resist the temptation to hold too much cash

Higher interest rates put in place by the Federal Reserve have provided the best returns on cash in years.

Yet, experts have started to signal that some investors may be making the mistake of holding too much cash.

“Under-investing is a risk,” Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, recently told CNBC.com.

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Likewise, McGregor said she has started to warn clients that the current higher returns on cash will not always be available and sitting out the market gains carries risks. Bank of America expects the Fed to start cutting rates this year, with a first cut in September followed by another in December.

Sitting out of the markets may have lasting lifetime consequences for investors who are working to meet long-term goals. That goes particularly as the markets are up more than 60% since October 2022, according to McGregor.

“If we get a pullback and we get a pause in the market, we will view it as a buying opportunity if clients are not at their target allocation,” McGregor said.

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Student loan borrowers still at risk of wage garnishment

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The Trump administration paused its plan to garnish Social Security benefits for those who have defaulted on their student loans — but says borrowers’ paychecks are still at risk.

“Wage garnishment will begin later this summer,” Ellen Keast, a U.S. Department of Education spokesperson, told CNBC.

Since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020, collection activity on federal student loans had mostly been on hold. The Biden administration focused on extending relief measures to struggling borrowers in the wake of the public health crisis and helping them to get current.

The Trump administration’s move to resume collection efforts and garnish wages of those behind on their student loans is a sharp turn away from that strategy. Officials have said that taxpayers shouldn’t be on the hook when people don’t repay their education debt.

“Borrowers should pay back the debts they take on,” said U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon in a video posted on X on April 22.

Here’s what borrowers need to know about the Education Department’s current collection plans.

Social Security benefits are safe, for now

Keast said on Monday that the administration was delaying its plan to offset Social Security benefits for borrowers with a defaulted student loan.

Some older borrowers who were bracing for a reduced benefit check as early as Tuesday.

The Education Department previously said Social Security benefits could be garnished starting in June. Depending on details like their birth date and when they began receiving benefits, a recipient’s monthly Social Security check may arrive June 3, 11, 18 or 25 this year, according to the Social Security Administration.

More than 450,000 federal student loan borrowers age 62 and older are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

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The administration’s announcement gives borrowers more time to try to get current, and to avoid a reduced benefit check down the line.

“The Trump Administration is committed to protecting Social Security recipients who oftentimes rely on a fixed income,” said Keast.

Wages are still at risk

The Education Dept. says defaulted student loan borrowers could see their wages garnished later this summer.

The agency can garnish up to 15% of your disposable, or after-tax, pay, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. By law, you must be left with at least 30 times the federal minimum hourly wage ($7.25) a week, which is $217.50, Kantrowitz said.

Borrowers in default will receive a 30-day notice before their wages are garnished, a spokesperson for the Education Department previously told CNBC.

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Trump pauses Social Security benefit cuts over defaulted student loans

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The U.S. Department of Education is seen on March 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to sign an executive order to abolish the Department of Education. 

Win Mcnamee | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of Education is pausing its plan to garnish people’s Social Security benefits if they have defaulted on their student loans, a spokesperson for the agency tells CNBC.

“The Trump Administration is committed to protecting Social Security recipients who oftentimes rely on a fixed income,” said Ellen Keast, an Education Department spokesperson.

The development is an abrupt change in policy by the administration.

The Trump administration announced on April 21 that it would resume collection activity on the country’s $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio. For nearly half a decade, the government did not go after those who’d fallen behind as part of Covid-era policies.

The federal government has extraordinary collection powers on its student loans and it can seize borrowers’ tax refundspaychecks and Social Security retirement and disability benefits. Social Security recipients can see their checks reduced by up to 15% to pay back their defaulted student loan.

More than 450,000 federal student loan borrowers age 62 and older are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

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What the national debt, deficit mean for your money

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Annabelle Gordon/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The massive package of tax cuts House Republicans passed in May is expected to increase the U.S. debt by trillions of dollars — a sum that threatens to torpedo the legislation as the Senate starts to consider it this week.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill, as written, would add about $3.1 trillion to the national debt over a decade with interest, to a total $53 trillion. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates a higher tally: $3.8 trillion, including interest and economic effects.

Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky was one of two Republicans to vote against the House measure, calling it a “debt bomb ticking” and noting that it “dramatically increases deficits in the near term.”

“Congress can do funny math — fantasy math — if it wants,” Massie said on the House floor on May 22. “But bond investors don’t.”

A handful of Republican Senators have also voiced concern about the bill’s potential addition to the U.S. debt load and other aspects of the legislation.

“The math doesn’t really add up,” Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, said Sunday on CBS.

The legislation comes as interest payments on U.S. debt have surpassed national spending on defense and represent the second-largest outlay behind Social Security. Federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, a measure of U.S. economic output, is already at an all-time high.

The notion of rising national debt may seem unimportant for the average person, but it can have a significant impact on household finances, economists said.

“I don’t think most consumers think about it at all,” said Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. “They think, ‘It doesn’t really impact me.’ But I think the truth is, it absolutely does.”

Consumer loans would be ‘a lot more’ expensive

A much higher U.S. debt burden would likely cause consumers to “pay a lot more” to finance homes, cars and other common purchases, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

“That’s the key link back to us as consumers, businesspeople and investors: The prospect that all this borrowing, the rising debt load, mean higher interest rates,” he said.

Sen. MarkWayne Mullin: Overall structure of House GOP reconciliation bill will stay intact

The House legislation cuts taxes for households by about $4 trillion, most of which accrue for the wealthy. The bill offsets some of those tax cuts by slashing spending for safety-net programs like Medicaid and food assistance for lower earners.

Some Republicans and White House officials argue President Trump’s tariff policies would offset a big chunk of the tax cuts.

But economists say tariffs are an unreliable revenue generator — because a future president can undo them, and courts may take them off the books.

How rising debt impacts Treasury yields

U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) speaks to the media after the House narrowly passed a bill forwarding President Donald Trump’s agenda at the U.S. Capitol on May 22, 2025.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Ultimately, higher interest rates for consumers ties to perceptions of U.S. debt loads and their effect on U.S. Treasury bonds.

Common forms of consumer borrowing like mortgages and auto loans are priced based on yields for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year Treasury.

Yields (i.e., interest rates) for long-term Treasury bonds are largely dictated by market forces. They rise and fall based on supply and demand from investors.

The U.S. relies on Treasury bonds to fund its operations. The government must borrow, since it doesn’t take in enough annual tax revenue to pay its bills, what’s known as an annual “budget deficit.” It pays back Treasury investors with interest.

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If the Republican bill — called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — were to raise the U.S. debt and deficit by trillions of dollars, it would likely spook investors and Treasury demand may fall, economists said.

Investors would likely demand a higher interest rate to compensate for the additional risk that the U.S. government may not pay its debt obligations in a timely way down the road, economists said.

Interest rates priced to the 10-year Treasury “also have to go up because of the higher risk being taken,” said Philip Chao, chief investment officer and certified financial planner at Experiential Wealth based in Cabin John, Maryland.

Moody’s cut the U.S.’ sovereign credit rating in May, citing the increasing burden of the federal budget deficit and signaling a bigger credit risk for investors. Bond yields spiked on the news.

How debt may impact consumer borrowing

The bond market is 'sounding the alarm' on U.S. and global fiscal situations, says Subadra Rajappa

A fixed 30-year mortgage would rise from almost 7% to roughly 7.6%, all else equal — likely putting homeownership further “out of reach,” especially for many potential first-time buyers, he said.

The debt-to-GDP ratio would swell from about 101% at the end of 2025 to an estimated 148% through 2034 under the as-written House legislation, said Kent Smetters, an economist and faculty director for the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Bond investors get hit, too

‘Pouring gasoline on the fire’

“But it’s not going out on too much of a limb to suggest financial markets the last couple years have grown increasingly concerned about debt levels,” Quinlan said.

Absent action, the U.S. debt burden would still rise, economists said. The debt-to-GDP ratio would swell to 138% even if Republicans don’t pass any legislation, Smetters said.

But the House legislation would be “pouring gasoline on the fire,” said Chao.

“It’s adding to the problems we already have,” Chao said. “And this is why the bond market is not happy with it,” he added.

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