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Why a common recession indicator doesn’t seem to be working anymore

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Pedestrians walk along Wall Street near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Thursday, May 16, 2024. 

Alex Kent | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Wall Street’s favorite recession signal started flashing red in 2022 and hasn’t stopped — and thus far has been wrong every step of the way.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has been lower than most of its shorter-dated counterparts since that time — a phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve which has preceded nearly every recession going back to the 1950s.

However, while conventional thinking holds that a downturn is supposed to occur within a year, or at most two years, of an inverted curve, not only did one not occur but there’s also nary a red number in sight for U.S. economic growth.

The situation has many on Wall Street scratching their heads about why the inverted curve — both a signal and, in some respects, a cause of recessions — has been so wrong this time, and whether it’s a continuing sign of economic danger.

“So far, yeah, it’s been a bald-faced liar,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said half-jokingly. “It’s the first time it’s inverted and a recession didn’t follow. But having said that, I don’t think we can feel very comfortable with the continued inversion. It’s been wrong so far, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be wrong forever.”

Depending on which duration point you think is most relevant, the curve has been inverted either since July 2022, as gauged against the 2-year yield, or October of the same year, as measured against the 3-month note. Some even prefer to use the federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for overnight lending. That would take the inversion to November 2022.

Whichever point you pick, a recession should have arrived by now. The inversion had been wrong only once, in the mid-1960s, and has foretold every retrenchment since.

According to the New York Federal Reserve, which uses the 10-year/3-month curve, a recession should happen about 12 months later. In fact, the central bank still assigns about a 56% probability of a recession by June 2025 as indicated by the current gap.

“It’s been such a long time, you have to start to wonder about its usefulness,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist SMBC Nikko Securities. “I just don’t see how a curve can be this wrong for this long. I’m leaning toward it being broken, but I haven’t fully capitulated yet.”

The inversion is not alone

A normalized yield curve eventually is very good for banks, says Gabelli Funds' Macrae Sykes

However, economists have been watching several negative trends.

The so-called Sahm Rule, a fail-safe gauge that posits that recessions happen when the unemployment rate averaged across three months is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, is close to being triggered. On top of that, money supply has been on a steady downward trajectory since peaking in April 2022, and the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has long been negative, suggesting substantial headwinds to growth.

“So many of these measures are being questioned,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “At some point, we’re going to be in recession.”

Yet no recession has appeared on the horizon.

What’s different this time

“We’ve got a number of different indicators that just haven’t panned out,” said Jim Paulsen, a veteran economist and strategist who has worked at Wells Fargo among other firms. “We’ve had a number of things that were recession-like.”

Paulsen, who now writes a Substack blog called Paulsen Perspectives, points out some anomalous occurrences over the past few years that could account for the disparities.

For one, he and others note that the economy actually experienced that technical recession prior to the inversion. For another, he cites the unusual behavior by the Federal Reserve during the current cycle.

Faced with runaway inflation at its highest rate in more than 40 years, the Fed started raising rates gradually in March 2022, then much more aggressively by the middle part of that year — after the inflation peak of June 2022. That’s counter to the way central banks have operated in the past. Historically, the Fed has raised rates early in the inflation cycle then started cutting later.

“They waited until inflation peaked, and then they tightened all the way down. So the Fed’s been completely out of synch,” Paulsen said.

But the rate dynamics have helped companies escape what usually happens in an inverted curve.

One reason why inverted curves can contribute to a recession as well as signal that one is occurring is that they make shorter-term money more expensive. That’s hard on banks, for instance, that borrow short and lend long. With an inverted curve hitting their net interest margins, banks may opt to lend less, causing a pullback in consumer spending that can lead to recession.

But companies this time around were able to lock in at low long-term rates before the central bank starting hiking, providing a buffer against the higher short-term rates.

However, the trend raises the stakes for the Fed, as much of that financing is about to come due.

Companies needing to roll over their debt could face a much harder time if the prevailing high rates stay in effect. This could provide something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for the yield curve. The Fed has been on hold for a year, with its benchmark rate at a 23-year high.

“So it could very well be the case that the curve’s been lying to us up until now. But it could decide to start telling the truth here pretty soon,” said Zandi, the Moody’s economist. “It makes me really uncomfortable that the curve is inverted. This is one more reason why the Fed should be lowering interest rates. They’re taking a chance here.”

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Economics

EC President von der Leyen

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The European Union is preparing further countermeasures against U.S. tariffs if negotiations fail, according to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed 20% tariffs on the bloc on Wednesday.

Von der Leyen’s comments come after retaliatory duties were announced by the bloc after the U.S. imposed tariffs on  last month in a bid to protect European workers and consumers. The EU at the time said it would introduce counter-tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28 billion) worth of U.S. goods.

Previously suspended duties — which were at least partially in place during Trump’s first term as president — are set to be re-introduced alongside a slew of additional duties on further goods.

Industrial-grade steel and aluminum, other steel and aluminum semi-finished and finished products, along with their derivative commercial products, such as machinery parts and knitting needles were set to be included. A range of other products such as bourbon, agricultural products, leather goods, home appliances and more were also on the EU’s list.

Following a postponement, these tariffs are expected to come into effect around the middle of April.

This is a developing story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

ADP jobs report March 2025:

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Attendees check in during a job fair at the YMCA Gerard Carter Center on March 27, 2025 in the Stapleton Heights neighborhood of the Staten Island borough in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Private payroll gains were stronger than expected in March, countering fears that the labor market and economy are slowing, according to a report Wednesday from ADP.

Companies added 155,000 jobs for the month, a sharp increase from the upwardly revised 84,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 120,000, the payrolls processing firm said.

The upside surprise comes amid worries that President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs could deter firms from adding to headcount and in turn slow business and consumer activity. Trump is set to announce the next step in his trade policy Wednesday at 4 p.m.

Hiring was fairly broad based, with professional and business services adding 57,000 workers while financial activities grew by 38,000 as tax season heats up. Manufacturing contributed 21,000 and leisure and hospitality added 17,000.

Service providers were responsible for 132,000 of the positions. On the downside, trade, transportation and utilities saw a loss of 6,000 jobs and natural resources and mining declined by 3,000.

On the wage side, earnings rose by 4.6% year over year for those staying in their positions and 6.5% for job changers. The gap between the two matched a series low last hit in September, suggesting a lower level of mobility for workers wanting to switch jobs.

Still, the overall numbers indicate a solid labor market. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the level of open positions is now almost even with available workers, reversing a trend in which openings outnumbered the unemployed by 2 to 1 a couple years ago.

The ADP report comes ahead of the more closely watched BLS measure of nonfarm payrolls. The BLS report, which unlike ADP includes government jobs, is expected to show payroll growth of 140,000 in March, down slightly from 151,000 in February. The two counts sometimes show substantial disparities due to different methodologies.

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Economics

Trump tariffs’ effect on consumer prices debated by economists

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The U.S. government is set to increase tariff rates on several categories of imported products. Some economists tracking these trade proposals say the higher tariff rates could lead to higher consumer prices.

One model constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston suggests that in an “extreme” scenario, heightened taxes on U.S. imports could result in a 1.4 percentage point to 2.2 percentage point increase to core inflation. This scenario assumes 60% tariff rates on Chinese imports and 10% tariff rates on imports from all other countries.

The researchers note that many other tariff proposals have surfaced since they published their findings in February 2025. 

Price increases could come across many categories, including new housing and automobiles, alongside consumer services such as nursing, public transportation and finance. 

“People might think, ‘Oh, tariffs can only affect the goods that I buy. It can’t affect the services,'” said Hillary Stein, an economist at the Boston Fed. “Those hospitals are buying inputs that might be, for example, … medical equipment that comes from abroad.” 

White House economists say tariffs will not meaningfully contribute to inflation. In a statement to CNBC, Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said that “as the world’s largest source of consumer demand, the U.S. holds all the leverage, which means foreign suppliers will have to eat the economic burden or ‘incidence’ of the tariffs.” 

Assessing the impact of the administration’s full economic agenda has been a challenge for central bank leaders. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at the meeting in March. 

The Fed targets its overnight borrowing rate at between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the effective federal funds rate at 4.33% on March 31, according to the New York Fed. The core personal consumption expenditures price index inflation rate rose to 2.8% in February, according to the Commerce Department. Forecasts of U.S. gross domestic product suggest that the economy will continue to grow at a 1.7% rate in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than what was forecast in January.  

Consumers in the U.S. and businesses around the world are bracing for impact. 
 
“There is a reason why companies went outside of the U.S.,” said Gregor Hirt, chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors. “Most of the time it was because it was cheaper and more productive.” 

Watch the video above to learn how much inflation tariffs may cause.

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