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Weekly jobless claims fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market

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Weekly jobless claims fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market

Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening.

First-time filings for jobless benefits came to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week, a decline of 17,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The report comes with Wall Street on edge amid signs that job growth is slowing and even signaling a potential recession on the horizon. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. ET release while Treasury yields held higher.

While the top-line number helped allay some fears, the level of continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged up to 1.875 million, the highest since Nov. 27, 2021.

Jobless claims have been trending higher for much of the year, though still remain relatively tame. The recent uptick has been attributed to disruptions from Hurricane Beryl as well as summer shutdowns at auto plants. Michigan and Texas reported the two biggest declines on the week, down 7,401 and 4,814 respectively, according to unadjusted numbers.

The four-week average rose to 240,750, the highest in nearly a year. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise.

“Claims pulled back in the latest week, adding to evidence that weather and seasonal auto plant shutdowns were responsible for the previous week’s dramatic rise,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “If you’re looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you’ll need to find it somewhere else.”

Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, triggering the so-called Sahm Rule that gauges recessions by measuring changes in the jobless rate.

Markets have been highly volatile since then, with a huge three-day sell-off starting last Thursday that ignited worries of deeper troubles in the U.S. economy.

In turn, traders expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, with some even calling for an emergency intrameeting reduction to counter the recent weakness. Markets are assigning a strong probability of a half percentage point reduction for the first move and a full percentage point cut by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker of fed funds futures contracts.

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Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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