Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening.
First-time filings for jobless benefits came to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week, a decline of 17,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.
The report comes with Wall Street on edge amid signs that job growth is slowing and even signaling a potential recession on the horizon. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. ET release while Treasury yields held higher.
While the top-line number helped allay some fears, the level of continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged up to 1.875 million, the highest since Nov. 27, 2021.
Jobless claims have been trending higher for much of the year, though still remain relatively tame. The recent uptick has been attributed to disruptions from Hurricane Beryl as well as summer shutdowns at auto plants. Michigan and Texas reported the two biggest declines on the week, down 7,401 and 4,814 respectively, according to unadjusted numbers.
The four-week average rose to 240,750, the highest in nearly a year. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise.
“Claims pulled back in the latest week, adding to evidence that weather and seasonal auto plant shutdowns were responsible for the previous week’s dramatic rise,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “If you’re looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you’ll need to find it somewhere else.”
Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, triggering the so-called Sahm Rule that gauges recessions by measuring changes in the jobless rate.
Markets have been highly volatile since then, with a huge three-day sell-off starting last Thursday that ignited worries of deeper troubles in the U.S. economy.
In turn, traders expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, with some even calling for an emergency intrameeting reduction to counter the recent weakness. Markets are assigning a strong probability of a half percentage point reduction for the first move and a full percentage point cut by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker of fed funds futures contracts.
MUCH AS he may wish to, Donald Trump cannot govern through imperial decree alone. Congress is drafting legislation to remake the tax system and alter federal spending—something only it can do. On May 12th Republicans unveiled their new plan. Unfortunately it is a mess.
Customers line up at the check out booth on April 18, 2025 at a Costco branch in Niantic, Connecticut.
Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images
Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday.
The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the 12-month was a bit below the forecast for 2.4%.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. The forecast was for 0.3% and 2.8% respectively.
The monthly readings were a bit higher than in March though price increases remain well off their highs of three years ago.
Shelter prices again were the main culprit in pushing up the inflation gauge. The category, which makes about one-third of the index weighting, increased 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half the overall move, according to the BLS.
After posting a 2.4% slide in March, energy prices rebounded, with a 0.7% gain. Food saw a 0.1% decline.
Used vehicle prices saw their second straight drop, down 0.5%, while new vehicles were flat. Apparel costs also were off 0.2% though medical care services increased 0.5%.
Egg prices tumbled, falling 12.7%, though they were still up 49.3% from a year ago.
While the April CPI figures were relatively tame, the Trump tariffs remain a wild card in the inflation picture, depending on where negotiations go between now and the summer.
In his much-awaited “Liberation Day” announcement, Trump slapped 10% duties on all U.S. imports and said he intended to put additional reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. Recently, though, Trump has backed off his position, with the most dramatic development a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against China while the two sides enter further negotiations.
Markets expect the president’s softening position to lead to less of a chance of interest rate cuts this year. Traders had been expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing in June, with at least three total reductions likely this year.
Since the China developments, the market has pushed out the first cut to September, with just two likely this year as the central bank feels less pressure to support the economy and as inflation has held above the Fed’s 2% target now for more than four years.
The Fed relies more on the Commerce Department’s inflation gauge for policymaking, though CPI figures into that index. The BLS on Thursday will release its April reading on producer prices, which are seen as more of a leading indicator on inflation.
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TEGERNSEE, GERMANY — Top German business leaders, economists and politicians descended onto a small, picturesque Bavarian town situated next to the iconic Tegernsee lake last week to share their hopes and discuss what’s at stake for the new government.
Buoyed by recent positive market sentiment for Europe’s largest economy, attendees at the summit were united in their call for the new administration to step up and honour campaign promises. Any missteps would likely not be tolerated, with some business leaders warning the government cannot allow itself a “lazy summer.”
Despite rain and low hanging clouds providing a somewhat dreary backdrop to the event, which has been dubbed the “Davos of Germany,” the promise of new beginnings enveloped the summit and the atmosphere was buzzing with excitement for potential changes the newly-appointed Chancellor Friedrich Merz could initiate.
The view across the Tegernsee from the Ludwig Erhard Summit
Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC
Big expectations for the government were commonplace, with concerns about Germany’s struggling economy and recent political turmoil seemingly having faded into the background.
The German DAX index is currently up over 18% since the beginning of this year, frequently hitting record highs in recent months. The German economy has however been in stagnation territory for over two years now, with tensions over economic, fiscal and budget policy in the previous ruling coalition and its eventual breakup continuing to weigh on expectations.
“There are very high hopes now on the new government,” Patrick Trutwein, chief risk officer and chief operating officer at the IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, said during a panel moderated by CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.
He said he was feeling positive about Germany’s future considering the announcement of the major fiscal package enshrined in Germany’s constitution, as well as further potential reforms ahead and “an economy that’s pretty robust and can build on its own … productivity and competencies.”
Matthias Voelkel, CEO of Boerse Stuttgart Group, was among those feeling hopeful.
“If we look ahead and if they [the new government] do the right thing, I’m optimistic,” he told CNBC.
Audi CEO Gernot Döllner meanwhile said in a fireside chat that he was hopeful that the new government would “send an impulse into the German economy.”
The mood was also upbeat in Germany’s auto sector, which has long been struggling with competition from China, pressures from the transition to electric vehicles and has recently been hit by U.S. tariffs.
“The Germans are back,” Hildegard Müller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, told CNBC’s Weisbach Friday. “We are competitive,” she added.
A talk at the Ludwig Erhard Summit.
Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC
But amid the positive buzz, it was clear that observers are keeping a close eye on the governments every move.
“This new government in Germany cannot allow itself a political lazy summer, I’m sorry, they’ve got to work and they’ve got to work hard,” said Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, chairman of Spitzberg Partners and former German politician.
Or as Veronika Grimm, member of the German Council of Economic Experts, told CNBC: “A lot lies ahead for the government.”
Overal the message was clear: Germany needs to get its act together.
Alexander Horn, general manager of Eli Lilly‘s Germany arm — Lilly Germany — said the business strongly welcomes the new government’s goals, but won’t tolerate any caveats.
“Specifically we expect that the declarations of intent that are in the coalition agreement will be implemented quickly, speed plays an enormously big role,” he said during a panel, according to a CNBC translation.
Boerse Stuttgart Group’s Voelkel indicated his optimism relied on action from the government, saying he was looking for moves towards “less bureaucracy, less anti-growth regulation, more innovation and particularly strengthening investment.”
The newly minted German government has set itself many of these points as policy goals, making promises to boost the country’s economy, reduce bureaucracy and boost innovation and investment during the election campaign and in its coalition agreement.
“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this,” German economy minister Katherina Reiche told CNBC on the sidelines of the summit.