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Amtrak’s ridership is touching record highs

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At 7pm on a Friday night, the Illini service, a train that runs from southern Illinois to Chicago, ought to be pulling into the college city of Champaign. When your correspondent was on it in early March, it stopped short after the train coming in the opposite direction broke down. For three hours, passengers were trapped roughly 200 yards south of the station. At some point a student who had been loudly complaining to the conductor quietly opened the door and walked off into the night. A little after 10pm the train finally shunted its way to the platform and the rest of the passengers alighted. The next morning your by now rather grumpy correspondent proceeded to Chicago by bus.

Such stories of travelling by train in America are sadly common. The world’s biggest economy has fewer miles of electrified railway than Iran. Only in the North East Corridor (NEC) between Boston and Washington, DC, do intercity trains run even vaguely like trains in other rich countries. Elsewhere, Mennonites, who do not use cars or fly, make up a remarkable share of passengers. And yet as bleak as it can seem, Amtrak, the national rail carrier, is in fact recovering well from the pandemic. In the latter half of last year, ridership was just 3% below its levels in 2019—previously the firm’s best-ever year. And through his infrastructure law of 2021 President Joe Biden, an Amtrak superuser as a senator, has put aside $66bn for investment in passenger-rail infrastructure. Is a new golden age of train travel down the tracks?

The biggest recovery at the moment is on the NEC, an electrified track largely-owned and maintained by Amtrak directly. In 2023 trains there carried 12.7m people, a record high, and about 43% of all Amtrak passengers in total. The trains are well used in the north-east because they connect dense city centres and are nicer than the alternatives. “It’s more enjoyable and more comfortable” than flying, says Miles Stanley, a regular passenger between Boston, New York and Washington. Ticket revenues on the corridor easily cover the cost of operating the trains, and generate a surplus used for maintenance.

Elsewhere, rail is either directly subsidised by Congress (for the long-distance lines) or by state governments (for the rest), and trains travel on tracks owned by freight companies, all too infrequently. Passenger numbers are recovering on those trains too, but far less fast than on the NEC. It does not help that ageing rolling stock means those journeys are often getting worse. Derailments are absurdly common, as are crashes at level crossings. Your correspondent was once delayed several hours on the City of New Orleans, a long-distance train, by a frozen whistle.

If Amtrak were a normal company, it would pour money into the NEC and run fewer loss-making long-distance trains. Yet as Jim Mathews, the president of the Rail Passengers Association, a lobby group for riders, is keen to point out, Amtrak is more like a government agency than a company. Its bosses are appointed by the president and each year it has to be funded by Congress. And so the firm has generally tended to spread money around the country to win political support. Already it operates in 46 of the lower 48 states, and in 251 congressional districts. “It is a little cynical,” Mr Mathews admits.

For now, there is so much money around that the firm can invest in both. On the NEC, a civil-war-era tunnel near Baltimore where trains have to slow to a crawl is being rebuilt, something that ought to have happened decades ago. On the long-distance lines, new trains are being procured. But investment spending must be re-authorised in 2026, notes Yonah Freemark, of the Urban Institute, a think-tank. Another risk is that infrastructure-act money by law can be spent only on investment, not operational costs. Last year House Republicans proposed a 64% cut to Amtrak’s day-to-day budget—which if carried out would make investment pointless.

Some rail boosters have bigger ideas. On March 8th Seth Moulton, a congressman from Massachusetts, filed a bill proposing $205bn in investment in high-speed rail. He worries that Amtrak is “trying to recreate services from the 1930s”. Instead, he says it ought to build a brand-new fast train line, of the sort the Japanese or French have. This, he says, should be in Texas. “Showing that high-speed rail can succeed in a red state and get a lot of Republican support would change the conversation,” he says. Indeed Amtrak is working on a proposal to do just that, in partnership with a firm Mr Moulton used to work for. It’s certainly a platform.

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Economics

The euro zone is ready for a new member: Bulgaria

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A worker counts Bulgarian Lev banknotes at a store in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Friday, March 29, 2024.

Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bulgaria on Wednesday secured the green light to join the euro zone, meaning the bloc could soon grow from 20 to 21 members.

The European Commission and European Central Bank both assessed that the country met the requirements to adopt the single currency starting next year.

“This positive assessment of convergence paves the way for Bulgaria to introduce the euro as of 1 January 2026 and become the 21st EU Member State to join the euro area,” Philip Lane, member of the ECB Executive Board, said in a press release.

The European Commission described the assessment as “a critical and historic step on Bulgaria’s journey towards euro adoption” in a statement.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated the country, saying the decision “will mean more investment and trade with euro area partners, and more stability and prosperity for the Bulgarian people.”

“Bulgaria will also take its rightful place in shaping euro area decisions,” she added in a social media post.

This marks a shift from last year’s reports, which concluded that Sofia did not meet the so-called convergence criteria to adopt the currency on the grounds that the country’s inflation rate was too high.

One of the obstacles to cross was inflation. Bulgaria’s harmonized consumer price index — which is comparable across European countries — came in at 2.8% in April according to statistics agency Eurostat.

Price stability is just one of the requirements a country needs to fulfil in order to join the euro zone, and thereby the European Central Bank. Others include limitations on the size of a nation’s government deficit and debt ratio, its average nominal long-term interest rate and its exchange rate stability.

There is also a legal requirement that covers central bank independence.

Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007 and committed at the time to also join the euro zone and relinquish the Bulgarian lev as its official currency. Around 341 million people use the euro across the current 20 euro zone countries, according to the European Union. The ECB says over 29 billion euro bank notes with a value of more than 1.5 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion) are in circulation.

One euro is equivalent to 1.96 lev, a rate set when Bulgaria became part of the board which anchors the currencies.

There are mixed attitudes about joining the euro within Bulgaria. A survey published last year by the EU suggested 49% of the public was in favor of the becoming part of the euro bloc. Political opinion is also split, with several nationalist parties and the country’s president advocating against it, while Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov is supportive.

The European Commission said that alongside its assessment, it had also adopted proposals for a council decision and council regulation on Bulgaria’s euro adoption at the start of next year. The council of the EU has the final say on countries joining the euro zone.

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Economics

ADP jobs report May 2025:

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A sign promoting the benefits of working for McDonald’s hangs in the window of a restaurant on May 13, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

Private sector job creation slowed to a near-standstill in May, hitting its lowest level in more than two years as signs emerged of a weakening labor market, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Payrolls increased just 37,000 for the month, below the downwardly revised 60,000 in April and the Dow Jones forecast for 110,000. It was the lowest monthly job total from the ADP count since March 2023.

The report comes two days before the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to show a gain of 125,000 and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.

While the two reports often differ, occasionally by large margins, the ADP count provides another snapshot of the jobs picture at a time when questions are being raised over broader economic conditions.

“After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist for ADP.

Goods-producing industries lost a net 2,000 positions for the month, with natural resources and mining off 5,000 and manufacturing down 3,000, offset by a gain of 6,000 in construction.

On the services side, leisure and hospitality (38,000) and financial activities (20,000) provided some signs of strength. However, declines of 17,000 in professional and business services, 13,000 in education and health services and 4,000 in trade, transportation and utilities weighed on the total.

Companies employing fewer than 50 workers saw a loss of 13,000 while those with 500 or more employees reported a drop of 3,000. Mid-size firms gained 49,000.

Regarding wages, annual pay grew at a 4.5% rate for those remaining in their positions and 7% for job changers, both little changed from April and still “robust” levels, Richardson said.

Economic data has provided a mixed bag of late for the labor market. The BLS reported Tuesday that job openings rose more than expected in April, though other indicators, such as surveys from employment site Indeed and the National Federation of Independent Business, show weaker levels of openings and hiring intentions.

“The market remains distressingly gridlocked, with limited hiring and low quits, and the market can’t keep steadily cooling off forever before it just turns cold,” Indeed economist Allison Shrivastava said after Tuesday’s job openings report.

Federal Reserve officials have been generally optimistic about economic conditions, though in recent days they have expressed concern about the potential impact from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on both inflation and employment.

“I see the U.S. economy as still being in a solid position, but heightened uncertainty poses risks to both price stability and unemployment,” Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Tuesday.

Fed officials are expected to stay on hold regarding interest rates when they meet in two weeks.

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Economics

Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April

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JOLTS beats estimates, posts best number since February

Employers increased job openings more than expected in April while hiring and layoffs also both rose, according to a report Tuesday that showed a relatively steady labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available jobs totaled nearly 7.4 million, an increase of 191,000 from March and higher than the 7.1 million consensus forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On an annual basis, the level was off 228,000, or about 3%.

The ratio of available jobs to unemployed workers was down close to 1.03 to 1 for the month, close to the March level.

Hiring also increased for the month, rising by 169,000 to 5.6 million, while layoffs fell by 196,000 to 1.79 million.

Quits, an indicator of worker confidence in their ability to find another job, edged lower, falling by 150,000 to 3.2 million.

“The labor market is returning to more normal levels despite the uncertainty within the macro outlook,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Research. “Underlying patterns in hirings and firings suggest the labor market is holding steady.”

In other economic news Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell more than expected in April. Orders fell 3.7% on the month, more than the 3.3% Dow Jones forecast and indicative of declining demand after swelling 3.4% in March as businesses sought to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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