Finance

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping to speak after rare U.S. security advisor trip to China

Published

4 months ago

August 29, 2024

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) shakes hands with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at Yanqi Lake in Beijing on August 27, 2024.

Ng Han Guan | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING — U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to speak over the phone in “coming weeks,” the White House said Wednesday.

The announcement came amid U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan’s trip to Beijing this week to meet with Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat.

Both sides said their military leaders would also hold a call in the near future.

Chin added that plans for the second round of U.S.-China talks on artificial intelligence are underway. The White House noted John Podesta, senior advisor to the president for international climate policy, would soon travel to China, without specifying a date.

In official readouts of Sullivan’s trip, the two nations maintained their positions on tech restrictions, Taiwan, the South China Sea and Ukraine.

China's 'appetite and dreams' about Taiwan are still there, says CFR's Richard Haass

Biden is not running for reelection in November after this summer, ceding the nomination to his vice president, Kamala Harris. The White House statement did not name the presidents, instead it noted plans for a “leader-level call.”

The Chinese side’s statement used its typical language of “two heads of state,” and said both sides were discussing “a new round of interaction,” according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

Biden and Xi held a nearly two-hour phone call in early April, after the two leaders had met in November 2023 on the sidelines of a summit in Woodside, California.

High-level communication between the world’s two largest economies hasn’t been easy in recent years amid heightened tensions and Covid-19 restrictions.

Then-U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August 2022 and a high-profile “balloon incident” in February 2023 had further strained their relationship, suspending some planned talks.

First U.S. security advisor visit since 2016

Sullivan arrived in Beijing Tuesday, wrapped up two days of meetings with Wang on Wednesday and is set to depart Thursday. This is his first trip to China as national security advisor, despite multiple meetings with Wang in recent years.

The last official trip to China by a U.S. president’s national security advisor was in 2016, when Susan Rice traveled to Beijing under the Obama administration.

While the outcome of November’s presidential election remains unclear, being tough on Beijing is a rare issue that both U.S. political parties agree on.

Harris’ current national security advisor, Phil Gordon, said in May at a Council on Foreign Relations event that the “China challenge” is much greater than Taiwan, and requires ensuring that Beijing “doesn’t have the advanced technology, intelligence and military capabilities that can challenge us.”

Finance

Slower pace ahead for rate cuts

Published

2 hours ago

January 8, 2025

Business Finance News

Federal Reserve officials at their December meeting expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump‘s policies could have, indicating that they would be moving more slowly on interest rate cuts because of the uncertainty, minutes released Wednesday showed.

Without calling out Trump by name, the meeting summary featured at least four mentions about the impact that changes in immigration and trade policy could have on the U.S. economy.

Since Trump’s November election victory, he has signaled plans for aggressive, punitive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada as well as the other U.S. trading partners. In addition, he intends to pursue more deregulation and mass deportations.

However, the extent of what Trump’s actions will be and specifically how they will be directed creates a band of ambiguity about what is ahead, which Federal Open Market Committee members said would require caution.

“Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased,” the minutes said. “As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.”

FOMC members voted to lower the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%.

However, they also reduced their outlook for expected cuts in 2025 to two from four in the previous estimate at September’s meeting, assuming quarter-point increments. The Fed cut a full point off the funds rate since September, and current market pricing is indicating just one or two more moves lower this year.

Minutes indicated that the pace of cuts ahead indeed is likely to be slower.

“In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants indicated that the Committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing,” the document said.

Moreover, members agreed that “the policy rate was now significantly closer to its neutral value than when the Committee commenced policy easing in September. In addition, many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters.”

Those conditions include inflation readings that remain above the Fed’s 2% annual target, a solid pace of consumer spending, a stable labor market and otherwise strong economic activity in which gross domestic product had been growing at an above-trend clip through 2024.

“A substantial majority of participants observed that, at the current juncture, with its policy stance still meaningfully restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity and inflation, including the economy’s responses to the Committee’s earlier policy actions,” the minutes said.

Officials stressed that future policy moves will be dependent on how the data unfolds and are not on a set schedule. The Fed’s preferred gauge showed core inflation running at 2.4% rate in November, and 2.8% when including food and energy prices, compared with the prior year. The Fed target’s inflation at 2%.

In documents handed out at the meeting, most officials indicated that while they see inflation gravitating down to 2%, they don’t forecast that happening until 2027 and expect that near-term risks are to the upside.

At his news conference following the Dec. 18 rate decision, Chair Jerome Powell likened the situation to “driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down.”

That statement reflected that mindset of meeting participants, many of whom “observed that the current high degree of uncertainty made it appropriate for the Committee to take a gradual approach as it moved toward a neutral policy stance,” the minutes said.

The “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations showed that they expect two more rate cuts in 2026 and possibly another one or two after, ultimately taking the long-run fed funds rate down to 3%.