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Checks and Balance newsletter: Joe Biden’s state-of-the-union speech

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This is the introduction to Checks and Balance, a weekly, subscriber-only newsletter bringing exclusive insight from our correspondents in America.

Joe Biden delivered a party-convention (state-of-the-union) speech, writes James Bennet, our Lexington columnist

No one got whacked over the head with a cane, but in other respects Joe Biden’s state-of-the-union speech proved to be one of those moments in which I found myself wondering if American politics is returning to its 19th-century mores—thanks in part to social media and other 21st-century technology. The Progressive era introduced institutions that restrained some of the excesses of partisanship, such as the civil service. It also inculcated ideals of bipartisanship and decorum that are now fading away. They may have been debts vice was paying to virtue—even at its most seemingly decorous, politics is always a rough business—but I think we will miss them if they truly disappear. 

It is a bit melancholy that Mr Biden, with his veneration for the rites of Washington, would find himself compelled to deliver a state-of-the-union address that was in many respects more like a party-convention speech. But this has been coming for years, since even before a Republican congressman shouted “You lie” at President Barack Obama in 2009 during an address to a joint session of Congress. The next year, in a state-of-the-union speech, Mr Obama took the extraordinary step of chiding the Supreme Court, for a decision related to campaign finance—precedent for the shot Mr Biden took Thursday night at the justices for overturning Roe v Wade. In 2020 Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of the House, theatrically tore apart her copy of President Donald Trump’s speech after he finished delivering it.

Mr Trump, with his contempt for what he sees as the pretences of a cynical, transactional business, accelerated the trend towards open partisanship in all aspects of governing. The clownish displays by his minions in the House chamber on Thursday night, with their heckling and their MAGA hats or t-shirts, undermined the subsequent pious outrage of Republicans over Mr Biden’s politicking. 

It is an axiom of American politics that presidential elections are a referendum on the incumbent. But in this campaign Americans have a choice between two presidents, neither of whom they much like. For each man the path to a second term lies through negative partisanship, ie, persuading voters that the other guy is worse. It will be a brutal campaign. 

And that made the more humane moments in the House chamber on Thursday night seem all the more precious, even if they were flashes of old-style senatorial clubbiness. “I know you don’t want to hear any more, Lindsey, but I gotta say a few more things,” Mr Biden said towards the end of his speech, singling out Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina. Mr Graham has remade himself as an acolyte of Mr Trump, but, clearly delighted by the presidential attention, he roared with laughter. 

And Mr Biden drew his most powerful contrast with Mr Trump by closing on a high note. It is another axiom of American politics that presidential campaigns are about the future, and Mr Biden is out to paint Mr Trump as obsessed with grievances from his past. Mr Biden’s refrain at the end of the speech became “I see a future,” as he envisioned more freedom, fairer taxation, less gun violence. “I see a future for all Americans,” he said, and—the partisanship of his speech notwithstanding—he added, “I will always be a president for all Americans.”

Economics

Why the president must not be lexicographer-in-chief

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Who decides what legal terms mean? If it is Donald Trump, God help America

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Economics

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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Economics

German inflation May 2025

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19 May 2025, Berlin: Apricots are sold at a greengrocer for 7.98 euros per kilogram. Grapes and papaya are also on offer.

Photo by Jens Kalaene/picture alliance via Getty Images

Germany’s annual inflation hit 2.1% in May approaching the European Central Bank’s 2% target but coming in slightly hotter than analyst estimates, preliminary data from statistics office Destatis showed Friday.

The print compares with a 2.2% reading in April and with a Reuters projection of 2%.

The print is harmonized across the euro zone for comparability.

So-called core inflation, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, dipped slightly from April’s 2.8% to 2.9% in May. The closely watched services print meanwhile eased sharply, coming in at 3.4% compared to 3.9% in the previous month.

Energy prices fell markedly for the second month in a row, tumbling by 4.6% in May.

Germany’s consumer price index has been closing in on the European Central Bank’s 2% target over recent months, in a positive signal amid ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook for Europe’s largest economy.

Domestic and global issues have mired expectations for Germany’s financial future.

One the one hand, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could damage economic growth, given Germany’s status as an export-reliant country, though the potential impact of such duties on inflation remains unclear. But frequent policy shifts and developments have been muddying the picture.

On the other hand, Germany’s newly minted government is starting to get to work and has made the economy a top priority. Questions linger about when and to what extent the new Berlin administration’s policy plans might be realized.

The ECB is set to make its next interest rate decision on June 5, with traders last pricing in an over 96% chance of a quarter point interest rate reduction, according to LSEG data. Back in April, the central bank had cut its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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