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Nikki Haley became the first woman to win a Republican presidential primary on March 3rd, when she earned 63% of the roughly 2,000 votes cast in the District of Columbia. Donald Trump’s campaign quickly sent out a press release knocking Ms Haley for being “crowned Queen of the Swamp by the lobbyists and DC insiders”. Mr Trump is busy creating a new Republican establishment anyway.
Ms Haley notched up a second win, in Vermont, on March 5th, but that came amid an avalanche of defeats. Fifteen states and one territory held primaries, with 854 of the 1,215 delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination up for grabs. Known as Super Tuesday, the typically important day proved unusually sleepy. As expected, Mr Trump dominated, as he has throughout the primary process. The front-runner won every Super Tuesday primary but Vermont’s.
Before Ms Haley dropped out of the race on Wednesday morning, Mr Trump wrote that many of her supporters were “Radical Left Democrats” but he “would further like to invite all of the Haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our Nation”. Ms Haley declined to endorse Mr Trump, who is now running unopposed and will soon officially clinch the delegates needed to become the party’s presumptive nominee.
Mr Trump did receive an endorsement from Mitch McConnell, the veteran Republican leader in the Senate and one of the last prominent holdouts. But the former president was already flexing his influence over the national party before Super Tuesday. The Republican National Committee (RNC), a 168-member body, is convening in Houston on March 7th and 8th, and merging the institution with Mr Trump’s campaign will be at the top of the agenda. Ronna McDaniel, the RNC’s chair since 2017, will finish her two-year term early after Mr Trump grew dissatisfied. Mr Trump has picked Michael Whatley, chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, to replace her. Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, is expected to join as co-chair. And Chris LaCivita, a top campaign official, will oversee day-to-day operations at the national committee.
Last month Ms Haley criticised these moves as premature, but presidential campaigns always integrate with the national committee eventually. “Of course he’s going to take over the building and the party,” says Sean Spicer, who worked at the RNC before joining the Trump administration. “It unifies the effort. You don’t need people swimming against the stream.”
Mr Trump was able to move faster than usual because he remains extremely popular with Republicans, and even his critics could see that only he could win the nomination. Both organisations will now co-ordinate strategy and spending that could pass $1bn. The committee traditionally focuses on get-out-the-vote operations and could take on some campaign expenses. Then there are Mr Trump’s legal bills, which continue to mount as he fights multiple criminal indictments.
Henry Barbour, a longtime committeeman, sought to pass a resolution preventing the RNC from picking up a legal tab that could run into tens of millions of dollars. He said ahead of the Houston meeting that the effort could not muster enough support even to come up for a vote by the full committee, though Mr LaCivita has said that Mr Trump will not rely on the RNC funds for legal liabilities.
A Trumpified RNC today does not guarantee one in perpetuity. The institution typically shrinks as it comes under financial pressure after presidential elections, and many Trump appointees will depart. The newly installed chair and co-chair will be up for re-election next year. Their successors will be chosen by RNC members, who generally support Mr Trump, but Republicans who have witnessed such transitions before say they can be unpredictable.
The presidential candidate will have greater influence over the future of the party by wading into congressional races. More than 90% of Trump-endorsed candidates won their primaries in 2022, and his endorsement remains potent in 2024. A Republican pursuing a US Senate seat in Montana dropped out days after Mr Trump endorsed his rival. A House Republican strategist declines to share details on discussions with the Trump campaign, but says Mr Trump wants to see the party’s majority grow: “He’s definitely a team player.”
Even a Trump loss in 2024 would not necessarily diminish the appetite for Trump-aligned populists in the future. “That is where the energy is in the party,” says Alex Conant, a Republican operative. “I expect it will remain that way for a while regardless of what happens to Trump.”
Mr Trump’s strength among primary voters should surprise no one, but some of the party’s money men have shown less enthusiasm. Many donors preferred Ms Haley or Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor whose $168m effort ended after the Iowa caucuses. Last year was the RNC’s worst fundraising year, adjusting for inflation, since 1993—and its Democratic rival brought in over $30m more. The DNC started 2024 with more than $21m cash on hand compared with just over $8m for the RNC.
Money is not all that matters. Hillary Clinton spent nearly twice as much as Mr Trump in 2016 and still lost. But in a close race, any extra advantage could decide the outcome. Mr Trump is a potent small-dollar fundraiser, but he appears to know he will need more billionaires onside.
The Club for Growth, an influential anti-tax group that fell out with Mr Trump in recent years, has begun to reconcile with him lately. Jeff Yass, a billionaire trader, gave the group’s Super PAC $10m as it sought a Trump alternative. He later donated to the Super PAC for Chris Christie, a former New Jersey governor. On March 1st Mr Trump called Mr Yass “fantastic”.
Whether Mr Trump can win over donors—and more moderate Republicans—may depend on how he adapts his tone in the coming months. Most presidential nominees undergo a shift after securing their base, adopting a more moderate message during the general election. Mr Trump has been notably more circumspect on abortion and other social issues than his Republican rivals. But his broader strategy is unlikely to change: hammering Mr Biden for his handling of immigration and the economy while pointing to increasing chaos around the world.
“Winning campaign messaging requires a few key ingredients: being simple, compelling and able to draw a clean contrast against the opposition,” says Rob Lockwood, a former RNC strategist. “Biden’s political prospects are primarily haunted by his record,” and Mr Trump can point to four years in office that polls suggest many voters recall fondly.
Mr Trump still faces the challenge of healing wounds within his own party. After Iowa, he opted for a unifying message. A week later in New Hampshire, visibly annoyed, he departed from his script and delivered a lengthy personal attack on Ms Haley. As the results came in on Super Tuesday, Mr Trump said: “We want to have unity, and we’re going to have unity, and it’s going to happen very quickly.” ■
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Customers shop for fresh fruits and vegetables in a supermarket in Munich, Germany, on March 8, 2025.
Michael Nguyen | Nurphoto | Getty Images
German inflation came in at a lower-than-expected 2.3% in March, preliminary data from the country’s statistics office Destatis showed Monday.
It compares to February’s 2.6% print, which was revised lower from a preliminary reading, and a poll of Reuters economists who had been expecting inflation to come in at 2.4% The print is harmonized across the euro area for comparability.
On a monthly basis, harmonized inflation rose 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 2.5%, below February’s 2.7% reading.
Meanwhile services inflation, which had long been sticky, also eased to 3.4% in March, from 3.8% in the previous month.
The data comes at a critical time for the German economy as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs loom and fiscal and economic policy shifts at home could be imminent.
Trade is a key pillar for the German economy, making it more vulnerable to the uncertainty and quickly changing developments currently dominating global trade policy. A slew of levies from the U.S. are set to come into force this week, including 25% tariffs on imported cars — a sector that is key to Germany’s economy. The country’s political leaders and car industry heavyweights have slammed Trump’s plans.
Meanwhile Germany’s political parties are working to establish a new coalition government following the results of the February 2025 federal election. Negotiations are underway between the Christian Democratic Union, alongside its sister party the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Union.
While various points of contention appear to remain between the parties, their talks have already yielded some results. Earlier this month, Germany’s lawmakers voted in favor of a major fiscal package, which included amendments to long-standing debt rules to allow for higher defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($541 billion) infrastructure fund.
This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One before landing in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., March 28, 2025.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.
The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.
Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.
Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.
“Signs of slowing in hard activity data are becoming more convincing, following an earlier worsening in sentiment,” wrote Barclays over the weekend.
Another factor: a surge of imports (which subtract from GDP) that appear to have poured into the U.S. ahead of tariffs.
The good news is the import effect should abate and only two of the 12 economists surveyed see negative growth in Q1. None forecast consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Oxford Economics, which has the lowest Q1 estimate at -1.6%, expects a continued drag from imports but sees second quarter GDP rebounding to 1.9%, because those imports will eventually end up boosting growth when they are counted in inventory or sales measures.
Recession risks rising
On average, most economists forecast a gradual rebound, with second quarter GDP averaging 1.4%, third quarter at 1.6% and the final quarter of the year rising to 2%.
The danger is an economy with anemic growth of just 0.3% could easily slip into negative territory. And, with new tariffs set to come this week, not everyone is so sure about a rebound.
“While our baseline doesn’t show a decline in real GDP, given the mounting global trade war and DOGE cuts to jobs and funding, there is a good chance GDP will decline in the first and even the second quarters of this year,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “And a recession will be likely if the president doesn’t begin backtracking on the tariffs by the third quarter.”
Moody’s looks for anemic Q1 growth of just 0.4% that rebounds to 1.6% by year end, which is still modestly below trend.
Stubborn inflation will complicate the Fed’s ability to respond to flagging growth. Core PCE is expected at 2.8% this quarter, rising to 3% next quarter and staying roughly at that level until in drops to 2.6% a year from now.
While the market looks to be banking on rate cuts, the Fed could find them difficult to justify until inflation begins falling more convincingly at the end of the year.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces that his administration has reached a deal with elite law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom during a swearing-in ceremony in the Oval Office at the White House on March 28, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
With decision day looming this week for President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs, Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill.
The investment bank now expects that tariff rates will jump 15 percentage points, its previous “risk-case” scenario that now appears more likely when Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. However, Goldman did note that product and country exclusions eventually will pull that increase down to 9 percentage points.
When the new trade moves are enacted, the Goldman economic team led by head of global investment research Jan Hatzius sees a broad, negative impact on the economy.
In a note published on Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed.”
Inflation above goal
On inflation, the firm sees its preferred core measure, excluding food and energy prices, to hit 3.5% in 2025, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the prior forecast and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
That in turn will come with weak economic growth: Just a 0.2% annualized growth rate in the first quarter and 1% for the full year when measured from the fourth quarter of 2024 to Q4 of 2025, down 0.5 percentage point from the prior forecast. In addition, the Wall Street firm now sees unemployment hitting 4.5%, a 0.3 percentage point raise from the previous forecast.
Taken together, Goldman now expects a 35% chance of recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% in the prior outlook.
The forecast paints a growing chance of a stagflation economy, with low growth and high inflation. The last time the U.S. saw stagflation was in the late 1970s and early ’80s. Back then, the Paul Volcker-led Fed dramatically raised interest rates, sending the economy into recession as the central bank chose fighting inflation over supporting economic growth.
Three rate cuts
Goldman’s economists do not see that being the case this time. In fact, the firm now expects the Fed to cut its benchmark rate three times this year, assuming quarter percentage point increments, up from a previous projection of two rate cuts.
“We have pulled the lone 2026 cut in our Fed forecast forward into 2025 and now expect three consecutive cuts this year in July, September, and November, which would leave our terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%,” the Goldman economists said, referring to the fed funds rate, down from 4.25% to 4.50% today.
Though the extent of the latest tariffs is still not known, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump is pushing his team toward more aggressive levies that could mean an across-the-board hit of 20% to U.S. trading partners.
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