JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon gestures as he speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 6, 2023.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Buried in a roughly 200-page quarterly filing from JPMorgan Chase last month were eight words that underscore how contentious the bank’s relationship with the government has become.
The lender disclosed that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau could punish JPMorgan for its role in Zelle, the giant peer-to-peer digital payments network. The bank is accused of failing to kick criminal accounts off its platform and failing to compensate some scam victims, according to people who declined to be identified speaking about an ongoing investigation.
In response, JPMorgan issued a thinly veiled threat: “The firm is evaluating next steps, including litigation.”
The prospect of a bank suing its regulator would’ve been unheard of in an earlier era, according to policy experts, mostly because corporations used to fear provoking their overseers. That was especially the case for the American banking industry, which needed hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer bailouts to survive after irresponsible lending and trading activities caused the 2008 financial crisis, those experts say.
But a combination of factors in the intervening years has created an environment where banks and their regulators have never been farther apart.
Trade groups say that in the aftermath of the financial crisis, banks became easy targets for populist attacks from Democrat-led regulatory agencies. Those on the side of regulators point out that banks and their lobbyists increasingly lean on courts in Republican-dominated districts to fend off reform and protect billions of dollars in fees at the expense of consumers.
“If you go back 15 or 20 years, the view was it’s not particularly smart to antagonize your regulator, that litigating all this stuff is just kicking the hornet’s nest,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy at Wolfe Research.
“The disparity between how ambitious [President Joe] Biden’s regulators have been and how conservative the courts are, at least a subset of the courts, is historically wide,” Marcus said. “That’s created so many opportunities for successful industry litigation against regulatory proposals.”
Assault on fees
Those forces collided this year, which started out as one of the most consequential for bank regulation since the post-2008 reforms that curbed Wall Street risk-taking, introduced annual stress tests and created the industry’s lead antagonist, the CFPB.
In the final months of the Biden administration, efforts from a half-dozen government agencies were meant to slash fees on credit card late payments, debit transactions and overdrafts. The industry’s biggest threat was the Basel Endgame, a sweeping proposal to force big banks to hold tens of billions of dollars more in capital for activities like trading and lending.
“The industry is facing an onslaught of regulatory and potential legislative change,” Marianne Lake, head of JPMorgan’s consumer bank, warned investors in May.
JPMorgan’s disclosure about the CFPB probe into Zelle comes after years of grilling by Democrat lawmakers over financial crimes on the platform. Zelle was launched in 2017 by a bank-owned firm called Early Warning Services in response to the threat from peer-to-peer networks including PayPal.
The vast majority of Zelle activity is uneventful; of the $806 billion that flowed across the network last year, only $166 million in transactions was disputed as fraud by customers of JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, the three biggest players on the platform.
But the three banks collectively reimbursed just 38% of those claims, according to a July Senate report that looked at disputed unauthorized transactions.
Banks are typically on the hook to reimburse fraudulent Zelle payments that the customer didn’t give permission for, but usually don’t refund losses if the customer is duped into authorizing the payment by a scammer, according to the Electronic Fund Transfer Act.
A JPMorgan payments executive told lawmakers in July that the bank actually reimburses 100% of unauthorized transactions; the discrepancy in the Senate report’s findings is because bank personnel often determine that customers have authorized the transactions.
Amid the scrutiny, the bank began warning Zelle users on the Chase app to “Stay safe from scams” and added disclosures that customers won’t likely be refunded for bogus transactions.
JPMorgan declined to comment for this article.
Dimon in front
The company, which has grown to become the largest and most profitable American bank in history under CEO Jamie Dimon, is at the fore of several other skirmishes with regulators.
Thanks to his reputation guiding JPMorgan through the 2008 crisis and last year’s regional banking upheaval, Dimon may be one of few CEOs with the standing to openly criticize regulators. That was highlighted this year when Dimon led a campaign, both public and behind closed doors, to weaken the Basel proposal.
In May, at JPMorgan’s investor day, Dimon’s deputies made the case that Basel and other regulations would end up harming consumers instead of protecting them.
The cumulative effect of pending regulation would boost the cost of mortgages by at least $500 a year and credit card rates by 2%; it would also force banks to charge two-thirds of consumers for checking accounts, according to JPMorgan.
The message: banks won’t just eat the extra costs from regulation, but instead pass them on to consumers.
While all of these battles are ongoing, the financial industry has racked up several victories so far.
Some contend the threat of litigation helped convince the Federal Reserve to offer a new Basel Endgame proposal this month that roughly cuts in half the extra capital that the largest institutions would be forced to hold, among other industry-friendly changes.
It’s not even clear if the watered-down version of the proposal, a long-in-the-making response to the 2008 crisis, will ever be implemented because it won’t be finalized until well after U.S. elections.
If Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, the rules might be further weakened or killed outright, and even under a Kamala Harris administration, the industry could fight the regulation in court.
That’s been banks’ approach to the CFPB credit card rule, which aimed to cap late fees at $8 per incident and was set to go into effect in May.
A last-ditch effort from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and bank trade groups successfully delayed its implementation when Judge Mark Pittman of the Northern District of Texas sided with the industry, granting a freeze of the rule.
‘Venue shopping’
A key playbook for banks has been to file cases in conservative jurisdictions where they are likely to prevail, according to Lori Yue, a Columbia Business School associate professor who has studied the interplay between corporations and the judicial system.
The Northern District of Texas feeds into the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, which is “well-known for its friendliness to industry lawsuits against regulators,” Yue said.
“Venue-shopping like this has become well-established corporate strategy,” Yue said. “The financial industry has been particularly active this year in suing regulators.”
Since 2017, nearly two-thirds of the lawsuits filed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce challenging federal regulations have been in courts under the 5th Circuit, according to an analysis by Accountable US.
Industries dominated by a few large players — from banks to airlines, pharmaceutical companies and energy firms — tend to have well-funded trade organizations that are more likely to resist regulators, Yue added.
The polarized environment, where weakened federal agencies are undermined by conservative courts, ultimately preserves the advantages of the largest corporations, according to Brian Graham, co-founder of bank consulting firm Klaros.
“It’s really bad in the long run, because it locks in place whatever the regulations have been, while the reality is that the world is changing,” Graham said. “It’s what happens when you can’t adopt new regulations because you’re terrified that you’ll get sued.”
— With data visualizations by CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes.
Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading. Technology stocks — The group that was under pressure in Monday’s session bounced before the bell, trying to regain some of the lost ground. Nvidia and Palantir climbed more than 1% in Tuesday premarket trading, while AppLovin gained 0.7%. The three names were among the best performers of 2024. KB Home — Shares of the homebuilder jumped by more than 9% after fourth-quarter results topped estimates. KB Home reported $2.52 in earnings per share on $2 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by LSEG were expecting $2.45 per share on $1.99 billion of revenue. The company said home deliveries rose 17% year over year. Signet Jewelers — The parent company of Kay Jewelers and Zales tumbled 16% after lowering its fourth-quarter guidance. Signet said holiday sales were weak as consumers gravitated to lower price points. Teladoc Health — The virtual health care company’s stock jumped 4% in premarket trading after the company announced a partnership with Amazon . Teladoc said its diabetes, hypertension and weight-management programs will be available on the e-commerce’s platform. H & E Equipment Services — Shares soared more than 100% after United Rentals said it would acquire the rental equipment company. United, whose shares popped 2% before the bell, will pay $92 for each H & E share in cash. That values H & E at around $4.8 billion. Applied Digital — The digital infrastructure stock rallied 19.3% on news that Macquarie would invest as much as $5 billion in Applied Digital’s artificial intelligence data centers. Through the deal, Macquarie will take a 15% stake in Applied Digital’s high-performance computing business. Maplebear — Shares of the Instacart parent rose nearly 2% after receiving an upgrade to buy from neutral at BTIG. The firm pointed to accelerating order growth as a catalyst for growth. Additionally, Mizuho initiated coverage of the stock with an outperform rating, saying that its position in grocery delivery is “underappreciated.” Hesai — U.S.-listed shares of the Chinese automaker supplier jumped 6.4% following an upgrade to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs. Analyst Tina Hou said that the market appears to have underestimated the operating leverage from Hesai’s new product cycle, and added that shares are currently trading at “attractive” levels. Celanese — The chemical manufacturer and supplier popped 2.7% following a rare double upgrade at Bank of America to buy from underperform. The bank said Celanese has an enticing valuation and should be able to see demand recover for most products. — CNBC’s Yun Li, Jesse Pound, Lisa Han, Sean Conlon, Michelle Fox and Sarah Min contributed reporting
BEIJING — China’s electric car market is headed for a sharp slowdown in 2025, according to analyst predictions, increasing pressure on companies trying to survive.
Sales of new energy vehicles, a category which includes battery-only and hybrid-powered cars, surged last year by 42% to nearly 11 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Market leader BYD‘s NEV sales skyrocketed — up by more than 40% last year to nearly 4.3 million units, far above its internal target of at least 20% growth from 2023.
But looking ahead, HSBC analysts forecast only a 20% increase in China’s new energy vehicle sales this year, alongside heightened industry consolidation. They predict BYD unit sales growth of around 14%.
Strong sales volumes have enabled “strugglers and stragglers” to hang on despite falling margins, Yuqian Ding, head of China autos research at HSBC, said in a report last week. She pointed out that only BYD, Tesla and Li Auto made a profit in 2023.
“In our view, this situation is unsustainable and we expect the pace of industry consolidation to accelerate rapidly,” Ding said.
China’s mix of subsidies and consumer purchase incentives have supported the rapid growth of new energy vehicles in recent years.
Shenzhen-based laser display company Appotronics didn’t even have an autos business until it started making an in-car projector screen that began deliveries in China early last year. The company shipped more than 170,000 units last year.
But in a sign of a changing market, the company only expects similar volumes in 2025, Appotronics Chairman and CEO Li Yi told CNBC last week. He predicted the market wouldn’t pick back up until 2026.
“A lot of customers, the automakers, they’re not in a good financial state. They cut the R&D budget. That will definitely have a negative impact on this industry,” Li said, also noting overcapacity issues.
As automakers piled into China’s fast-growing electric car market, they began a price war in a bid to attract customers. Smartphone company Xiaomi launched its SU7 electric sedan last year at $4,000 less than Tesla’s Model 3, and with claims of a longer driving range.
“When BYD and Tesla cut prices, most rivals have little choice but to follow suit. This has clearly squeezed the overall profit pool in the auto industry, especially now that EVs have all the momentum,” HSBC’s Ding said, noting that BYD has a net profit margin of only 5%, less than the low teens for top automakers when the traditional fossil fuel car was at its peak.
NEV penetration of new cars sold had exceeded 50% by the second half of the year, association data showed.
Because of the high penetration rate, the growth rate of new NEV car sales will likely slow to 15% to 20% in 2025, according to Fitch Bohua analyst Wenyu Zhou and a team. They expect so-called smart features will increasingly become a major point of competition.
While the electric car market moderates its growth, Appotronics plans to bring a 4K-resolution projector to cars in China this year, along with a screen that has better contrast and privacy features, Li said.
As for the longer term, the company intends to spend the next two to three years on developing new, laser-based uses for car headlights, Li said. He added the company is in talks with Tesla for a projector-type product in a next-generation vehicle, but could not say more because of a non-disclosure agreement.
Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management, believes bitcoin is in a speculative bubble after the cryptocurrency’s swift rally carried it above $100,000 following the November presidential election.
“I’m on the bubble side, on net,” Asness said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Monday. “To move me off that, you really need not a price change, but a use case. That’s what could convince me to become maybe more of a crypto person when I find any use for it, aside from speculation and criminality.”
Asness said there are three uses for crypto that he has identified: speculation, use in war-torn countries and paying cyber ransom.
Bitcoin rallied 120% in 2024 after a huge year-end pop on the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s election. Investors hoped Trump would usher in a golden age of crypto, including supportive deregulation of the industry and a national strategic bitcoin reserve. The digital coin has dipped 3% in the new year, last trading near $90,000.
“There’s no fundamental trend for crypto because I don’t know what the fundamentals are, but there is a price trend,” Asness said. “So I would guess most trend followers who have it in their universe are actually long.”
Bitcoin over the past year.
Although Asness is bearish on crypto, he noted that he would not bet against it due to its volatility.
“I wouldn’t short crypto only because shorting things with 100% annual volatility can be a little scary. I think we’ve all discovered what concentrated shorts can do to a portfolio,” he added.
Asness co-founded AQR in 1998 after a stint at Goldman Sachs. He and his partners established the quant-driven firm’s investment philosophy at the University of Chicago’s Ph.D. program, focusing on value and momentum strategies.