Finance

Banks aren’t in the clear just yet

Published

7 months ago

October 10, 2024

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Tom Brenner

Tom Brenner | Reuters

Falling interest rates are usually good news for banks, especially when the cuts aren’t a harbinger of recession.

That’s because lower rates will slow the migration of money that’s happened over the past two years as customers shifted cash out of checking accounts and into higher-yielding options like CDs and money market funds.

When the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point last month, it signaled a turning point in its stewardship of the economy and telegraphed its intention to reduce rates by another 2 full percentage points, according to the Fed’s projections, boosting prospects for banks.

But the ride probably won’t be a smooth one: Persistent concerns over inflation could mean the Fed doesn’t cut rates as much as expected and Wall Street’s projections for improvements in net interest income — the difference in what a bank earns by lending money or investing in securities and what it pays depositors — may need to be dialed back.

“The market is bouncing around based on the fact that inflation seems to be reaccelerating, and you wonder if we will see the Fed pause,” said Chris Marinac, research director at Janney Montgomery Scott, in an interview. “That’s my struggle.”

So when JPMorgan Chase kicks off bank earnings on Friday, analysts will be seeking any guidance that managers can give on net interest income in the fourth quarter and beyond. The bank is expected to report $4.01 per share in earnings, a 7.4% drop from the year-earlier period.

Known unknowns

While all banks are expected to ultimately benefit from the Fed’s easing cycle, the timing and magnitude of that shift is unknown, based on both the rate environment and the interplay between how sensitive a bank’s assets and liabilities are to falling rates.

Ideally, banks will enjoy a period where funding costs fall faster than the yields on income-generating assets, boosting their net interest margins.

But for some banks, their assets will actually reprice down faster than their deposits in the early innings of the easing cycle, which means their margins will take a hit in the coming quarters, analysts say.

For large banks, NII will fall by 4% on average in the third quarter because of tepid loan growth and a lag in deposit repricing, Goldman Sachs banking analysts led by Richard Ramsden said in an Oct. 1 note. Deposit costs for large banks will still rise into the fourth quarter, the note said.

Last month, JPMorgan alarmed investors when its president said that expectations for NII next year were too high, without giving further details. It’s a warning that other banks may be forced to give, according to analysts.

“Clearly, as rates go lower, you have less pressure on repricing of deposits,” JPMorgan President Daniel Pinto told investors. “But as you know, we are quite asset sensitive.”

There are offsets, however. Lower rates are expected to help the Wall Street operations of big banks because they tend to see greater deal volumes when rates are falling. Morgan Stanley analysts recommend owning Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup for that reason, according to a Sept. 30 research note.

Regional optimism

Regional banks, which bore the brunt of the pressure from higher funding costs when rates were climbing, are seen as bigger beneficiaries of falling rates, at least initially.

That’s why Morgan Stanley analysts upgraded their ratings on US Bank and Zions last month, while cutting their recommendation on JPMorgan to neutral from overweight.

Bank of America and Wells Fargo have been dialing back expectations for NII throughout this year, according to Portales Partners analyst Charles Peabody. That, in conjunction with the risk of higher-than-expected loan losses next year, could make for a disappointing 2025, he said.

“I’ve been questioning the pace of the ramp up in NII that people have built into their models,” Peabody said. “These are dynamics that are difficult to predict, even if you are the management team.”

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Finance

These are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week

Published

4 hours ago

April 27, 2025

Business Finance News

The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House. Case in point: The S & P 500 sank more than 2% this past Monday as President Donald Trump was attacking Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and providing scant details on tariff talks. Then on Tuesday , things started to turn around. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there “will be a de-escalation” in the trade war with China. It was the first day of what turned out to be a three-session rally for the S & P 500. Wednesday ‘s gains were fueled after Trump said he would not fire Powell and softened his stance on China. Thursday ‘s advance came despite China saying no trade talks were going on with the U.S., and the White House saying otherwise. The market finished higher Friday . When it was all said and done, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 4.6% and 6.7% , respectively, for the week. Nasdaq’s outsized advance last week put it in the green for the month with just three trading days left in April. Our tech stock standouts last week included Broadcom ‘s 12.5% gain and CrowdStrike ‘s 13% advance. The broader market S & P 500, however, was still down 1.5% in April as health care and materials continued to struggle this month. For the week, the Dow rose 2.5%, but that did not put much of a dent in the 30-stock average’s 4.5% monthly decline. .SPX .DJI,.IXIC YTD mountain S & P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq YTD Earnings from consumer-facing companies last week confirmed what the monthly consumer surveys have been reporting: People are worried about the economy and inflation and are not spending as freely. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s final look at April consumer sentiment was a bit better than the prior release on both feelings about the economy and inflation. However, the readings were still dismal. Four Club names delivered their quarterly report cards last week. Depressed Danaher on Tuesday showed signs of life , and the stock picked up nearly 5.5%. The theme of Capital One’s quarter, also out Tuesday, was resilient credit quality heading into next month’s completion of its purchase of credit card company and payment network Discover Financial. Capital One soared more than 12% last week. It was our biggest winner. The portfolio’s other financial stocks — Wells Fargo , Goldman Sachs , and BlackRock — also performed well last week. On Thursday, we lowered our price target on Bristol Myers Squibb because the financials did not resolve lingering issues for the stock, which lost 2.7% for the week. Guidance from Dover , also out Thursday, was prudently conservative , and the market rewarded the stock. Dover shares rose 5% for the week. We sent out four trade alerts last week. On Monday, we made good on Jim Cramer’s call earlier this month to lighten up on Apple and Nvidia because they are so hard to own in Trump’s second administration due to U.S. tensions with China. Apple and Nvidia gained ground last week — more than 6% and 9%, respectively. We also bought more shares of Capital One before the earnings pop because we felt the stock on Monday should have done better following regulator approval for its Discover deal. On Tuesday, we bought more shares of BlackRock and Dover before they jumped last week. We also added to our Starbucks position, which perked up last week but was still losing roughly 15% in April on all the back and forth on China trade talks. We trimmed Linde on Thursday. Shares of the industrial-focused name have been resilient throughout the market turmoil and have maintained gains. There’s plenty on the economic calendar in the week ahead, with pivotal releases on both sides of the Fed’s dual policy mandate of maximum employment (jobs) and price stability (inflation). In that sense, the data in the coming days carries implications for the central bank’s future moves on interest rates and investors’ understanding of where the U.S. economy stands during the trade war more generally. In addition to the usual weekly jobless claims data on Thursday, there are three major labor market reports on tap. Job, jobs, jobs The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March is due out Tuesday morning. The closely watched release, known as JOLTS, measures the tightness or slack in the jobs market. That provides clues on whether businesses are looking to hire and potential wage inflation. As of Friday, the consensus estimate is 7.47 million job openings, according to FactSet. On Wednesday morning, payroll processing firm ADP’s look at private job creation is slated for release. Economists expect private employers added 150,000 jobs in April, a month marked by tariff uncertainty, according to FactSet. ADP is generally seen as a preview of the U.S. government’s official jobs report, though it’s hardly a perfect harbinger. Friday brings that official government jobs data. The nonfarm payrolls report for April also is expected to show the U.S. added 150,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate staying unchanged from the prior month at 4.2%, according to FactSet. Of course, the impact of tariffs on hiring is a key question. Whether the Trump administration’s efforts to downsize the federal workforce shows up in a material way is another question. In the March report, government positions dropped by just 4,000 . Inflation check The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is set to be released Wednesday morning, with economists expecteding that the PCE index rose 2.6% year over year in March and 0.1% on a sequential basis. It bears repeating that this report is for March, so it was before Trump’s steep “reciprocal” tariffs briefly went into effect – then were paused while 10% baseline tariff on most trading partners was left in place. Nevertheless, the personal consumption expenditures index will shine a light on where price pressures in the economy stood before tariffs heated up. Inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target, and central bankers are waiting to see the inflationary impacts of tariffs. Earnings On top of the busy week of jobs and inflation data, the earnings calendar is jam-packed inside and outside the portfolio. We have 10 Club names reporting — headlined by four Big Tech holdings — while other influential companies in the market include Visa on Tuesday, Caterpillar on Wednesday, and Mastercard and McDonald’s on Thursday. Here’s what to watch for when our portfolio names report, along with sales and revenue estimates courtesy of LSEG. All other estimates are from FactSet. Honeywell is the first of the Club stocks to report on Tuesday morning, and as an industrial company with economic sensitivity, the trade war’s impact on customer orders will be a big focus. It’s worth noting: The company’s 2025 guidance offered in early February was already conservative. Its impending breakup into three standalone companies will be another topic of conversation. LSEG estimates: revenue of $9.59 billion and EPS: $2.21. Starbucks on Tuesday night is all about whether CEO Brian Niccol’s turnaround efforts are showing further signs of progress after its last quarter showed early indications that they were. Will they help the coffee chain break its four-quarter streak of declining same-store sales? The current consensus on Wall Street is for a decline of 0.8%. The weakening consumer may have hurt Starbucks during the period (and also could weigh on its outlook). Finally, updates on its China strategy and whether it’s facing anti-American backlash in that struggling market will be noteworthy. LSEG estimates: revenue of $8.86 billion and EPS of 50 cents. The biggest questions around Meta Platforms ‘ report after Wednesday’s close: How did its bread-and-butter advertising perform during the quarter as tariff-driven economic uncertainty started to bubble up, and how have more recent trade war developments changed advertisers’ behavior, particularly China-based businesses, if at all? The second theme is Meta’s AI spending plans in the face of elevated uncertainty. Is CEO Mark Zuckerberg standing by its $60 to $65 billion capital expenditures guidance? LSEG estimates: revenue of $41.39 billion and EPS: $5.28. The conversation on AI spending also will be playing out on Microsoft’s earnings call on Wednesday night. For roughly two months now, questions have been swirling about Microsoft’s data center expansion leases, with various reports of lease cancelations and pauses. Hopefully, analysts and investors alike get further clarity on this and the company’s capex intentions more broadly. The most important metric in the report is Azure cloud growth for both the January-to-March period and guidance for the current quarter. LSEG estimates: revenue of $68.44 billion and EPS: $3.22. Shares of Linde , which reports Thursday morning, have acted quite defensively this year for a company sensitive to economic growth. The nature of Linde’s localized industrial gas business makes it so its impact is more indirect — in other words, if an uncertain macro forces its customers to pull back their production, then Linde could see that show up in its volumes. The comforting thing for investors is that Linde’s management team is known for its conservatism with its guidance, and a weaker U.S. dollar could also be a tailwind to earnings growth. LSEG estimates: revenue: of $8.24 billion and EPS: $3.92. For Eli Lilly ‘s results on Thursday morning, the most important drugs remain Zepbound for obesity and Mounjaro for obesity, and analysts see them generating combined revenues of $6.06 billion in the quarter. This time around, though, Lilly’s call may spend a lot more time away from the GLP-1 market, with tariffs and the evolving regulatory regime in Washington — ranging from drug-price negotiations to industry critic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the nation’s top health official — as being major discussion points. To be sure, pipeline commentary, especially expectations for its GLP-1 pill , also will be influential. LSEG estimates: revenue: $12.67 billion and EPS: $3.05. Tariffs will be the dominant story on Thursday night when Apple reports. We’ll finally hear directly from CEO Tim Cook on how the company has responded thus far on production and plans to proceed from here, given it is currently exempt from the most aggressive tariffs on Chinese imports but still faces the looming threat of electronics-specific duties. Last Tuesday, new data showed that American consumers are prepared to remain loyal to the iPhone. On Friday, Reuters reported Apple is trying to make most of its U.S.-sold iPhones in India by the end of 2026. The other main angle is how tariffs have changed customer behavior. Did a lot of purchases get pulled into March quarter to beat tariff price hikes, leading to more subdued demand in the current quarter? LSEG estimates: revenue of $94.3 billion and EPS: $1.62. Amazon ‘s forward commentary on how the tariffs are affecting its ecommerce, Amazon Web Services and advertising businesses will carry greater weight than the first-quarter results themselves. On the retail side, have customers been stocking up to beat tariffs, and how is the company handling supply? Are sellers hiking their prices ? For AWS, is the uncertain environment changing customers’ consumption habits and IT budgets at all? Of course, analysts also will press on Amazon’s data center and AI spending strategy . On the ad front, Amazon has exposure to China-based marketers, like Meta, and weaker consumer spending could generally pressure ad spending. Profitability is a key watch item, too. LSEG estimates: revenue of $154.92 billion and EPS: $1.36. When DuPont reports Friday morning, investors will be in search of updates on what the tariffs mean for customer demand — spanning industries such as electronics, automotive and construction — rather than the company’s own import exposure. DuPont’s business in China, which is almost a fifth of its sales, will be a big focus, and executives will surely get questions about Beijing’s investigation into the firm . DuPont’s electronics spinoff planned for later this year figures to be discussed, as well. LSEG estimates: revenue of $94.3 billion and EPS of 95 cents. Rounding out the week alongside DuPont on Friday morning is electrical equipment supplier Eaton , which has seen its stock hit hard this year as investors questioned the sustainability of data center investments. That crucial business will be a topic of conversation, as well as the company’s direct tariff exposure and the secondary effect on customer demand in businesses including automotive. Order growth, project backlog and margins are important metrics to watch. LSEG estimates: revenue of $6.26 billion and EPS of $2.70. Week ahead Monday, April 28 Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Before the bell: Roper Technologies (ROP), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) After the close: Cadence Design Systems (CDS), Rambus (RMBS), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), Nucor (NUE), Waste Management (WM), Noble Corporation (NE), Leggett & Platt (LEG) Tuesday, April 29 Census Bureau’s Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey at 8:30 a.m. ET The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey at 10 a.m. ET Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: UPS (UPS), Honeywell (HON) , General Motors (GM), Pfizer (PFE), Coca-Cola (KO), JetBlue (JBLU), PayPal (PYPL), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Hilton Hotels (HLT), Deutsche Bank (DB), Adidas (ADS), Spotify (SPOT), Brinker International (EAT), Royal Caribbean (RCL) After the bell: Visa (V), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Starbucks (SBUX) , Mondelez International (MDLZ), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), PPG Industries (PPG), Expand Energy (EXE) Wednesday, April 30 ADP’s Employment Survey at 8:15 a.m. ET Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter Advance Estimate at 8:30 a.m. ET Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index at 10 a.m. ET National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Caterpillar (CAT), Humana (HUM), GSK (GSK), Barclays (BCS), Airbus (AIR), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), GE Healthcare (GEHC), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL), International Paper (IP), Wingstop (WING), ADP (ADP) After the bell: Qualcomm (QCOM), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), eBay (EBAY), Robinhood (HOOD), Teladoc Health (TDOC), KLA Corp (KLA), MGM Resorts (MGM), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Thursday, May 1 Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET ISM’s Manufacturing PMI at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Eli Lilly (LLY), Linde (LIN), CVS Health (CVS), McDonald’s (MCD), Mastercard (MA), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Shake Shack (SHAK), Sirius XM (SIRI), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Biogen (BIIB), Moderna (MRNA), Wayfair (W), Cardinal Health (CAH), Roblox (RBLX) After the bell: Amgen (AMGN), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Roku (ROKU), Airbnb (ABNB), Block (XYZ), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Juniper Networks (JNP), Mohawk Industries (MHK), U.S. Steel (X), Reddit (RDDT), Live Nation (LYV), Stryker (SYK), EOG Resources (EOG), Ingersoll Rand (IR) Friday, May 2 April Nonfarm Payrolls Report at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Eaton (ETN), Cigna (CI), DuPont (DD), FuboTV (FUBO), Wendy’s (WEN), Shell (SHEL), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Apollo Global Management (APO) Saturday, May 3 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

A security guard works outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the Federal Reserve announcement in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024.

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House.

Finance

These U.S. consumer stocks face higher China risks

Published

5 hours ago

April 27, 2025

Business Finance News

Finance

Apple iPhone assembly in India won’t cushion China tariffs: Moffett

Published

1 day ago

April 26, 2025

Business Finance News

Street's biggest Apple bear says a production move to India is unrealistic

Leading analyst Craig Moffett suggests any plans to move U.S. iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic.

Moffett, ranked as a top analyst multiple times by Institutional Investor, sent a memo to clients on Friday after the Financial Times reported Apple was aiming to shift production toward India from China by the end of next year.

He’s questioning how a move could bring down costs tied to tariffs because the iPhone components would still be made in China.

“You have a tremendous menu of problems created by tariffs, and moving to India doesn’t solve all the problems. Now granted, it helps to some degree,” the MoffettNathanson partner and senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday. “I would question how that’s going to work.”

Moffett contends it’s not so easy to diversify to India — telling clients Apple’s supply chain would still be anchored in China and would likely face resistance.

“The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he wrote to clients.

Moffett cut his Apple price target on Monday to $141 from $184 a share. It implies a 33% drop from Friday’s close. The price target is also the Street low, according to FactSet.

“I don’t think of myself as the biggest Apple bear,” he said. “I think quite highly of Apple. My concern about Apple has been the valuation more than the company.”

Moffett has had a “sell” rating on Apple since Jan. 7. Since then, the company’s shares are down about 14%.

“None of this is because Apple is a bad company. They still have a great balance sheet [and] a great consumer franchise,” he said. “It’s just the reality of there are no good answers when you are a product company, and your products are going to be significantly tariffed, and you’re heading into a market that is likely to have at least some deceleration in consumer demand because of the macro economy.”

Moffett notes Apple also isn’t getting help from its carriers to cushion the blow of tariffs.

“You also have the demand destruction that’s created by potentially higher prices. Remember, you had AT&T, Verizon and T. Mobile all this week come out and say we’re not going to underwrite the additional cost of tariff [on] handsets,” he added. “The consumer is going to have to pay for that. So, you’re going to have some demand destruction that’s going to show up in even longer holding periods and slower upgrade rates — all of which probably trims estimates next year’s consensus.”

According to Moffett, the backlash against Apple in China over U.S. tariffs will also hurt iPhone sales.

“It’s a very real problem,” Moffett said. “Volumes are really going to the Huaweis and the Vivos and the local competitors in China rather than to Apple.”

Apple stock is coming off a winning week — up more than 6%. It comes ahead of the iPhone maker’s quarterly earnings report due next Thursday after the market close.

To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5, at the Nasdaq in Times Square.