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We need to ‘take our time’ to get rate cuts right

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ECB has a 'fairly stable view' that inflation is on its way to 2%: Central bank's chief economist

The European Central Bank must take its time to get interest rate cuts right and will have a clearer picture of inflationary pressures in June, the institution’s chief economist told CNBC.

“A lot of evidence is accumulating, but what’s also fair to say is that the transition from this holding phase, we’ve been on hold since last September since a substantial hiking cycle, we do have to take our time to get that right, from holding to dialing back restrictions,” Philip Lane told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Thursday.

Lane, a Governing Council member, said the euro zone central bank’s March meeting had been an “important milestone” in the accumulation of evidence, and showed the “disinflation process has been ongoing.” During the meeting, the ECB held rates and released updated macroeconomic projections, which lowered its inflation forecast for this year to 2.3% from 2.7%.

Inflation in the 20-nation bloc eased to 2.6% in February.

In line with the ECB’s March messaging, Lane said that more data was required, particularly around wages, and that the Governing Council would “learn a lot by April, a lot more by June” — the dates of its next two meetings.

In a news conference after the March meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said market pricing on the timing of rate cuts — which indicate a start in June as of Thursday — “seems to be converging better” with the central bank’s view.

Numbers from the ECB were 'reassuring,' and a June rate cut is likely, portfolio manager says

June emerged as a key date in market commentary, as it’s set to mark the first meeting where the ECB can assess spring data on wage negotiations for the year.

Asked about other colleagues on the ECB’s Governing Council who have suggested rate cuts could take place before the summer, Lane said he believed this was a reference to the second quarter, which would include June.

“I think Q2 is a time when we will be far enough into 2024 to see more of the wage dynamic, to see more of the price pressures.”

He stressed that it was important, in his own role, to “avoid trying to provide calendar guidance to the market.”

“Once we are sufficiently confident that we will get back to target in a sustainable manner, in a timely manner, that’s the right time to move to the next phase,” he said.

Room for profits to come down

Policymakers have repeatedly stressed that many of the causes of the inflationary cycle have subsided, such as the energy price spike and supply chain issues. But they remain concerned about domestic inflationary pressures from corporate profits and wage rises.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey caused controversy in 2022 for suggesting workers should not ask for a pay raise in order to avoid stoking inflation.

Lane said Thursday that, while the ECB’s forecast relied on some moderation in wage growth, it was “important” for people’s inflation-adjusted salaries to improve, and that companies should shoulder lower profits to allow this to happen.

“Wages were not the source of this inflation problem. But in terms of making sure we get back to target, the interplay between wages and profits, our forecast is built on a degree of wage deceleration,” he said.

“It’s important to say, we need to see workers’ real incomes improve, to rebuild, not just this year, [but] the year after. So we allow for higher to normal wage increases.”

Lane added, “But we also need to see, essentially, firms absorbing a fair amount of that in lower profits. Profits were quite high in 2022, there is some room for profits to come down. And that is part of the open questions we have.”

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Companies already raise prices or plan to, blaming tariffs, data shows

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Johnson & Johnson manufacturing facility in Wilson, North Carolina.

Courtesy: Johnson & Johnson

Data from the New York Federal Reserve shows a majority of companies have passed along at least some of President Donald Trump’s tariffs onto customers, the latest in a growing body of evidence indicating the policy change is likely to stretch consumers’ wallets.

In May, about 77% of service firms that saw increased costs due to higher U.S. tariffs tariffs passed through at least at least some of the rise to clients, according to a survey conducted by the New York Fed that was released Wednesday. Around 75% of manufacturers surveyed said the same.

In fact, more than 30% of manufacturers and roughly 45% of service firms passed through all of the higher cost to their customers, according to the New York Fed’s statics.

Price hikes happened quickly after Trump slapped steep levies on trading partners, whether large or small. More than 35% of manufacturers and nearly 40% of service firms raised prices within a week of seeing tariff-related cost increases, according to the survey.

Trump announced in early April that he would impose “reciprocal” tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories, sending the stock market into a tailspin. But Trump soon rolled back or paused those levies for three months, unleashing the equity market to claw back most of its initial losses.

July deadline

Companies and investors alike are now looking to a July 9 deadline for the return of those suspended tariffs, coping in the meantime with continued confusion regarding to trade policy. The U.S. has already announced one trade deal with the United Kingdom, and Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said this week that the Trump administration is “close to the finish line” on some other agreements.

The New York Fed’s survey is the latest in a salvo of data releases and anecdotal reports that have shown companies’ willingness to pass down cost increases despite pressure from Trump not to do so.

Nearly nine out of 10 of the 300 CEOs surveyed in May said they have raised prices or planned to soon, according to data released last week by Chief Executive Group and AlixPartners. About seven out of 10 chief executives surveyed in May said they plan to hike prices by at least 2.5%.

Corporate executives have been careful in how they speak about the impact of Trump’s policies on their business, especially when it comes to trade, to avoid getting caught in the president’s crosshairs. Last month, for example, Trump warned Walmart in a social media post that the retailer should “eat the tariffs” and that he would “be watching.”

Consequently, survey data and anonymous commentary offer insights into how American business leaders are discussing the tariffs behind closed doors.

“The administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of Covid-19,” one respondent said in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey published Monday.

Another respondent said “chaos does not bode well for anyone, especially when it impacts pricing.” While another pointed to the agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily slash tariffs, they said the central question is what the landscape will look like in a few months.

‘Hugely distracting’

“We are doing extensive work to make contingency plans, which is hugely distracting from strategic work,” this respondent said. “It is also very hard to know what plans we should actually implement.”

Responses to the ISM service sector survey released Wednesday revealed a similar focus on the uncertainty stemming from controversial tariffs.

“Tariffs remain a challenge, as it is not clear what duties apply,” one respondent wrote. “The best plan is still to delay decisions to purchase where possible.”

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Fed ‘Beige Book’ economic report cites declining growth, rising prices and slow hiring

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A store closing sign is displayed as customers shop during the last day of a store closing sale at a JOANN Fabric and Crafts location in a shopping mall following the company’s bankruptcy in Torrance, California on May 27, 2025.

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

The U.S. economy contracted over the past six weeks as hiring slowed and consumers and businesses worried about tariff-related price increases, according to a Federal Reserve report Wednesday.

In its periodic “Beige Book” summary of conditions, the central bank noted that “economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report” released April 23.

“All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions,” the report added.

Hiring was “little changed” across most of the Fed’s 12 districts, with seven describing employment as “flat” amid widespread growth in applicants and lower turnover rates.

“All Districts described lower labor demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses, and staff reduction plans. Some Districts reported layoffs in certain sectors, but these layoffs were not pervasive,” the report said.

On inflation, the report described prices as rising “at a moderate pace.”

“There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward. A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial,” it said. “All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices.”

There were disparities, though, over expectations for how much prices would rise, with some businesses saying they might reduce profit margins or add “temporary fees or surcharges.”

“Contacts that plan to pass along tariff-related costs expect to do so within three months,” the report said.

The report covers a period of a shifting landscape for President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

In early May, Trump said he would relax so-called reciprocal tariffs against China, which responded in kind, helping to set off a rally on Wall Street amid hopes that the duties would not be as draconian as initially feared.

However, fears linger over the inflationary impact as well as whether hiring and the broader economy would slow because of slowdowns associated with the tariffs.

Tariffs were mentioned 122 times in Thursday’s report, compared to 107 times in April.

Regionally, Boston, New York and Philadelphia all reported declining economic activity. Richmond, Atlanta and Chicago were among the districts reporting better growth.

In New York specifically, the Fed found “heightened uncertainty” and input prices that “grew strongly with tariff-inducted cost increases. Richmond reported a slight increase in hiring despite Trump’s efforts to trim the federal government payroll.

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Economics

Meet SCOTUSbot, our AI tool to predict Supreme Court rulings

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This June may be the most harried for the Supreme Court’s justices in some time. On top of 30-odd rulings due by Independence Day, the court faces a steady stream of emergency pleas. Over 16 years, George W. Bush and Barack Obama filed a total of eight emergency applications in the Supreme Court (SCOTUS). In the past 20 weeks, as many of his executive orders have been blocked by lower courts, Donald Trump has filed 18.

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