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US Consumer Sentiment Rising: A Mixed Bag of Optimism and Uncertainty

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US Economy

Consumer confidence in the US economy has perked up, reaching a six-month high in October. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index climbed to 71.5, a notable increase from September’s 68.1. This positive shift marks the highest level of consumer sentiment since April.

The surge in optimism can be largely attributed to the widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady. Consumers seem to be breathing a sigh of relief, anticipating that borrowing costs will remain manageable. This sense of stability is likely contributing to a more positive outlook on the overall economic landscape.

Further fueling the positive sentiment is the perception that inflation has peaked. Consumers are increasingly confident that the relentless price increases of the past year are finally easing. They anticipate continued declines in inflation in the coming months, which would alleviate pressure on household budgets and contribute to a more favorable economic environment.

However, it’s important to note that this wave of optimism is happening against a backdrop of lingering economic concerns. While the recent rise in consumer sentiment is encouraging, it remains below its historical average. This suggests that consumers are still proceeding with a degree of caution, acknowledging that potential challenges could lie ahead.

One area where caution is evident is in the assessment of current economic conditions. The survey revealed a slight dip in views on this front, indicating a degree of uncertainty about the immediate state of the economy. Consumers may be grappling with mixed signals, such as a strong labor market juxtaposed with persistent inflation in certain sectors.

Adding to the sense of measured optimism, the survey also showed a slight decrease in optimism regarding the long-term economic outlook. This could stem from a variety of factors, including global economic uncertainty or domestic political concerns. The complexities of the global landscape, including geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, may be weighing on consumers’ minds, leading to a more tempered outlook on the future.

In conclusion, the recent rise in consumer sentiment is a welcome development, but it’s essential to view it within a broader context of ongoing economic complexities. Consumers are cautiously optimistic, buoyed by the expectation of stable interest rates and easing inflation. However, they remain aware of lingering uncertainties, reflected in their views on current economic conditions and the long-term outlook. The coming months will reveal whether this newfound optimism can be sustained or whether it will be tempered by economic headwinds.

Economics

Job openings jumped and hiring slumped in October, key labor report for the Fed shows

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October job openings data beats expectations while new hires fall monthly

Available jobs rose in October while hiring fell during a month in which payrolls growth hit their lowest level in nearly four years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.

Job openings totaled 7.74 million on the month, up 372,000 from September and more than the Dow Jones estimate for 7.5 million, the BLS said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The rate of openings as a share of the labor force rose to 4.6% from 4.4%.

That brought the ratio of available positions to unemployment workers up to 1.1, about half of where it was during the peak of a massive gap between supply and demand in 2022.

Hiring also tailed off at a time when the labor market was disrupted by violent storms in the Southeast as well as two major labor strikes involving dock workers and Boeing. Hires totaled 5.31 million, down 269,000 on the month, lowering the hiring rate to 3.3%. That’s also a decline of 0.2 percentage point.

Layoffs, though, fell to 1.63 million, a decrease of 169,000 from September.

The data comes for a month in which the BLS reported nonfarm payroll growth of just 12,000, the worst month since December 2020.

The Federal Reserve watches the JOLTS report closely for signs of tightness or slack in the labor market. Markets expect the Fed to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point when it meets later this month, in part an effort to head off any potential weakness in the labor market.

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Economics

Fed’s Waller ‘leaning toward’ a rate cut, but worries about inflation

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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks during The Clearing House Annual Conference in New York City, U.S. November 12, 2024. 

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday he is anticipating an interest rate cut in December but is concerned about recent trends on inflation that could change his mind.

“Based on the economic data in hand today and forecasts that show that inflation will continue on its downward path to 2 percent over the medium term, at present I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting,” Waller said in remarks before a monetary policy forum in Washington.

However, he noted that the “decision will depend on whether data that we will receive before then surprises to the upside and alters my forecast for the path of inflation.”

Waller cited recent data indicating that progress on inflation may be “stalling.”

In October, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures price index, showed headline inflation moving up to 2.3% annually and core prices, which exclude the cost of food and energy, moving up to 2.8%. The Fed targets a 2% rate.

Though the data was in line with Wall Street expectations, it showed an increase from the prior month and was evidence that despite the progress, the central bank’s goal has proved elusive.

“Overall, I feel like an MMA fighter who keeps getting inflation in a choke hold, waiting for it to tap out yet it keeps slipping out of my grasp at the last minute,” Waller said, referring to mixed martial arts. “But let me assure you that submission is inevitable — inflation isn’t getting out of the octagon.”

Markets expect the Fed to lop another quarter percentage point off its benchmark overnight borrowing rate when it meets Dec. 17-18. That would follow a half-point cut in September and a quarter-point reduction in November.

“As of today, I am leaning toward continuing the work we have started in returning monetary policy to a more neutral setting,” Waller said.

Waller said he will watch incoming employment and inflation data closely. The Bureau of Labor Statistics this week will release reports on job openings and nonfarm payrolls, the latter coming after gains in October came in at a paltry 12,000, due largely to labor strikes and weather issues.

Even with the slowing progress on inflation, Waller said broader economic health has him feeling like it will be appropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.

“After we cut by 75 basis points, I believe the evidence is strong that policy continues to be significantly restrictive and that cutting again will only mean that we aren’t pressing on the brake pedal quite as hard,” he said.

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Economics

A big transgender-rights case heads to America’s Supreme Court

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A case to be heard by the Supreme Court on December 4th is set to reignite debate about one of the election’s most controversial issues: the rights of transgender people, and specifically the medical transitioning of minors. In 2023, Tennessee enacted Senate Bill 1 (SB1), which bans puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones and surgery for minors who identify as trans. It is one of 26 states that have done so. Now, in United States v Skrmetti, the federal government, supported by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), is suing Tennessee on behalf of the parents of three teenagers, claiming the ban violates the equal-protection clause of the constitution’s 14th Amendment.

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