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The Republicans gain control of the Senate

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REPUBLICANS HAVE won control of the Senate, a victory with big ramifications for policy and power in Washington no matter who ultimately wins the presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, where Mr Trump has taken a clear lead.

It became evident that Republicans would control the upper chamber after the party’s candidate in West Virginia quickly flipped a seat held by former Democrat Joe Manchin, which had been long expected. Then networks called the Ohio Senate race—the most expensive in the nation—for Republican Bernie Moreno, who unseated Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent. They secured their 51st seat when Deb Fischer (pictured), a Republican senator in Nebraska, fended off a surprisingly strong challenge from Dan Osborn, an independent.

Democrats’ attempts to flip Republican seats in Texas and Florida failed. As the night wore on, Republicans remained competitive in other close races and could contemplate how large their majority may become when all the votes are counted.

Republicans will find their win particularly satisfying after failing to retake the Senate in two consecutive close elections. Four years ago the contest came down to a pair of run-off races in Georgia, where Democratic candidates won close victories. That allowed Mr Biden to govern with his party in narrow control of the chamber, relying on Ms Harris, as the vice-president, to cast tie-breaking votes.

Republicans were even more optimistic ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. But flawed candidates lost what should have been competitive races against Democratic incumbents in Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire and Nevada. The Republicans also lost an open seat in Pennsylvania, after John Fetterman bested Mehmet Oz, a surgeon and TV personality endorsed by Mr Trump. After also under-performing against expectations in House races that year, Republican leaders decided they needed a new approach in 2024.

Steve Daines, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, aggressively intervened in primaries to weed out unimpressive candidates in favour of wealthy and telegenic nominees like Tim Sheehy in Montana and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. In deep blue Maryland, Larry Hogan, the popular former Republican governor of the state, forced Democrats to commit tens of millions of dollars to a race Mr Hogan was always unlikely to win (and did not).

The price of victory was steep. In Ohio, the two major party campaigns and outside groups spent more than $500m on advertising. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s voters were treated to nearly $350m in unrelenting adverts for the Senate race alone, in addition to more than $400m-worth for the Trump-Harris contest. In Montana—home to just over 1m people—at least $282m was spent on advertising. Arizona, Maryland, Nevada, Texas, Minnesota and Wisconsin all became nine-figure contests.

Why were donors willing to shell out billions of dollars on just a handful of Senate races? The fate of presidencies runs through the chamber: Senators must approve more than 1,000 high-ranking jobs from cabinet officers to generals and ambassadors. New federal judges—including those pegged for the Supreme Court—also require Senate endorsement.

Republican control could be a moderating force if Mr Trump is re-elected. The Senate has welcomed more right-populist Republican members like Mr Moreno in recent years, but still remains a bastion of pre-Trump conservatism. A narrow Republican majority in the Senate could empower moderates to reject Trump nominees outside the political mainstream.

Nothing united Republicans during Mr Trump’s first term quite like his judicial nominations. He enjoyed a Republican-controlled Senate for four years and the body approved 234 of his nominees, including three Supreme Court justices. If he wins, it is plausible that an outright majority of the high court will have been chosen by Mr Trump by the time his second term ends.

Should Ms Harris pull out a late victory, she would struggle to seat a Supreme Court justice so long as the Republicans control the upper chamber. How Republicans would handle lower-court nominees—or even a moderate and older Supreme Court pick—remains an open question. Mitch McConnell, the Republicans’ departing Senate leader, showed in 2016 that the party can obstruct Democratic judicial picks and weather the political backlash.

Mr McConnell, however, will not be leading Republicans next year. On November 13th the Senate will vote in what is currently a three-way race to replace him. John Thune, a South Dakotan and current McConnell leadership deputy, is the frontrunner and recently won a valuable endorsement from Mr Daines. John Cornyn of Texas represents Mr Thune’s biggest threat. Rick Scott of Florida is running a longshot race from the right.

Mr Thune, an establishment figure close to Mr McConnell, once had a rocky relationship with Mr Trump but has since patched it up. He served alongside Ms Harris when she was a senator, but the vice-president did not form any notable bipartisan relationships during her four years in the upper chamber. Mr Thune may not be a pugnacious populist, but he will no doubt be ready for a confrontational relationship if Ms Harris takes the White House.

Key provisions of Mr Trump’s 2017 tax-cutting law will expire absent legislative action next year. Negotiations have yet to begin in earnest, but some battle lines already are being drawn. A Republican-controlled Senate is likely to fight to keep a contentious cap on tax deductions in high-tax states. Whether Ms Harris or Mr Trump wins, the Senate will also have a say on whether to expand the child tax credit; whether to increase or cut corporate and individual rates; whether to fulfil campaign promises such as removing taxes on tips; and myriad other provisions. The final result will come down to presidential priorities and whether Democrats or Republicans control the House (and by how much).

There are other looming fights where a Republican-controlled Senate could be decisive. Amidst recurring fights over America’s debt limit, the lame-duck Congress could pass another in a succession of short-term government funding bills, but at some point in 2025 Congress will be responsible for a proper budget. Republicans agonised over these fiscal matters for much of 2023 and 2024. And the Senate Armed Services Committee will now be led by a Republican who wants to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP—something that neither Ms Harris nor Mr Trump necessarily wants.

If Mr Trump wins the electoral college, a sizeable Senate majority and likely control of the House of Representatives would endow Mr Trump with plenty of political capital. How to spend it would be a subject of factional arguments. But the direction of travel would be clear.

Economics

The euro zone is ready for a new member: Bulgaria

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A worker counts Bulgarian Lev banknotes at a store in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Friday, March 29, 2024.

Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bulgaria on Wednesday secured the green light to join the euro zone, meaning the bloc could soon grow from 20 to 21 members.

The European Commission and European Central Bank both assessed that the country met the requirements to adopt the single currency starting next year.

“This positive assessment of convergence paves the way for Bulgaria to introduce the euro as of 1 January 2026 and become the 21st EU Member State to join the euro area,” Philip Lane, member of the ECB Executive Board, said in a press release.

The European Commission described the assessment as “a critical and historic step on Bulgaria’s journey towards euro adoption” in a statement.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated the country, saying the decision “will mean more investment and trade with euro area partners, and more stability and prosperity for the Bulgarian people.”

“Bulgaria will also take its rightful place in shaping euro area decisions,” she added in a social media post.

This marks a shift from last year’s reports, which concluded that Sofia did not meet the so-called convergence criteria to adopt the currency on the grounds that the country’s inflation rate was too high.

One of the obstacles to cross was inflation. Bulgaria’s harmonized consumer price index — which is comparable across European countries — came in at 2.8% in April according to statistics agency Eurostat.

Price stability is just one of the requirements a country needs to fulfil in order to join the euro zone, and thereby the European Central Bank. Others include limitations on the size of a nation’s government deficit and debt ratio, its average nominal long-term interest rate and its exchange rate stability.

There is also a legal requirement that covers central bank independence.

Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007 and committed at the time to also join the euro zone and relinquish the Bulgarian lev as its official currency. Around 341 million people use the euro across the current 20 euro zone countries, according to the European Union. The ECB says over 29 billion euro bank notes with a value of more than 1.5 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion) are in circulation.

One euro is equivalent to 1.96 lev, a rate set when Bulgaria became part of the board which anchors the currencies.

There are mixed attitudes about joining the euro within Bulgaria. A survey published last year by the EU suggested 49% of the public was in favor of the becoming part of the euro bloc. Political opinion is also split, with several nationalist parties and the country’s president advocating against it, while Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov is supportive.

The European Commission said that alongside its assessment, it had also adopted proposals for a council decision and council regulation on Bulgaria’s euro adoption at the start of next year. The council of the EU has the final say on countries joining the euro zone.

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Economics

ADP jobs report May 2025:

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A sign promoting the benefits of working for McDonald’s hangs in the window of a restaurant on May 13, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

Private sector job creation slowed to a near-standstill in May, hitting its lowest level in more than two years as signs emerged of a weakening labor market, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Payrolls increased just 37,000 for the month, below the downwardly revised 60,000 in April and the Dow Jones forecast for 110,000. It was the lowest monthly job total from the ADP count since March 2023.

The report comes two days before the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to show a gain of 125,000 and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.

While the two reports often differ, occasionally by large margins, the ADP count provides another snapshot of the jobs picture at a time when questions are being raised over broader economic conditions.

“After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist for ADP.

Goods-producing industries lost a net 2,000 positions for the month, with natural resources and mining off 5,000 and manufacturing down 3,000, offset by a gain of 6,000 in construction.

On the services side, leisure and hospitality (38,000) and financial activities (20,000) provided some signs of strength. However, declines of 17,000 in professional and business services, 13,000 in education and health services and 4,000 in trade, transportation and utilities weighed on the total.

Companies employing fewer than 50 workers saw a loss of 13,000 while those with 500 or more employees reported a drop of 3,000. Mid-size firms gained 49,000.

Regarding wages, annual pay grew at a 4.5% rate for those remaining in their positions and 7% for job changers, both little changed from April and still “robust” levels, Richardson said.

Economic data has provided a mixed bag of late for the labor market. The BLS reported Tuesday that job openings rose more than expected in April, though other indicators, such as surveys from employment site Indeed and the National Federation of Independent Business, show weaker levels of openings and hiring intentions.

“The market remains distressingly gridlocked, with limited hiring and low quits, and the market can’t keep steadily cooling off forever before it just turns cold,” Indeed economist Allison Shrivastava said after Tuesday’s job openings report.

Federal Reserve officials have been generally optimistic about economic conditions, though in recent days they have expressed concern about the potential impact from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on both inflation and employment.

“I see the U.S. economy as still being in a solid position, but heightened uncertainty poses risks to both price stability and unemployment,” Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Tuesday.

Fed officials are expected to stay on hold regarding interest rates when they meet in two weeks.

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Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April

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JOLTS beats estimates, posts best number since February

Employers increased job openings more than expected in April while hiring and layoffs also both rose, according to a report Tuesday that showed a relatively steady labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available jobs totaled nearly 7.4 million, an increase of 191,000 from March and higher than the 7.1 million consensus forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On an annual basis, the level was off 228,000, or about 3%.

The ratio of available jobs to unemployed workers was down close to 1.03 to 1 for the month, close to the March level.

Hiring also increased for the month, rising by 169,000 to 5.6 million, while layoffs fell by 196,000 to 1.79 million.

Quits, an indicator of worker confidence in their ability to find another job, edged lower, falling by 150,000 to 3.2 million.

“The labor market is returning to more normal levels despite the uncertainty within the macro outlook,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Research. “Underlying patterns in hirings and firings suggest the labor market is holding steady.”

In other economic news Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell more than expected in April. Orders fell 3.7% on the month, more than the 3.3% Dow Jones forecast and indicative of declining demand after swelling 3.4% in March as businesses sought to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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