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Yields on cash ‘well ahead of inflation,’ expert says. How to invest now

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Investors have been able to get the best returns on cash, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to bring down the pace of inflation.

Now that the central bank is lowering rates — with a new quarter point rate cut announced by the Fed on Thursday — experts say having money in cash can still be a competitive strategy.

“The best yields, whether we’re looking at high yield savings accounts, money markets or CDs [certificates of deposit] are well ahead of inflation, and that’s likely to continue for a while,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

“Rates are coming down, but cash is still a pretty good place to be,” he said.

Yet just how much cash to set aside is a question every individual investor needs to determine.

Earlier this year, Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, warned investors may be holding too much cash. That may still be true today, she said Thursday.

“If you’re sitting in cash because the environment doesn’t feel right, then that’s probably not a good reason to be sitting in cash,” Cox said.

Strive for at least a six-month emergency fund

Most financial advisors recommend having cash set aside so that unexpected expenses don’t blow your budget or cause you to rack up credit card debt.

“The rule of thumb is six months of really necessary expenses,” said Natalie Colley, a certified financial planner and partner and senior lead advisor at Francis Financial in New York.

However, having a year’s worth of expenses set aside may also be reasonable, depending on your household budget, she said.

If your savings are not yet at that six-month or one-year mark, start with a goal of setting aside three months’ expenses and then keep building your cash, Colley said.

If you’re behind on emergency savings, you’re not alone.

Almost two-thirds — 62% — of Americans feel behind on emergency savings, a September Bankrate survey found. For many individuals, inflation and having too many expenses has made finding cash to set aside more difficult.

How to build emergency savings

Pay attention to asset allocation

Savers may be at risk of missing out on today’s higher rates if they have not moved their savings to a high-yield online savings or other account paying a more competitive yield.

Yet even if they’re accessing those higher interest rates on cash, investors may still be missing out.

Whether or not that’s true for investors comes down to a person’s time horizon, experts say.

For longer-term goals, stocks pay the best returns on your money, and can best help ensure you have the money you need for your intended milestones.

“Stocks move higher over time,” Cox said. “If you let your emotions get in the way, you could miss out on a rally that’s crucial to you meeting your financial goals.”

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If you have cash on the sidelines that you want to put into the market, it can make sense to add a fixed portion of that money over time, say every month — a strategy called dollar-cost averaging, Colley said.

Having that fixed schedule can help you avoid trying to time the market, which can be difficult to do effectively, she said. Importantly, investors should try to opt for broadly diversified funds rather than individual stocks.

Having a long-term view can pay off.

If you had invested all of your money before the financial crisis, it would have felt like the worst timing in the entire world, Colley said.

Now, your returns look great, provided you let that money grow for the 15-year run, she said.

Revise your cash strategy as conditions shift

To be sure, there are risks that investors need to keep tabs on when it comes to their cash and other investments.

“Rates are going to come down slower than they went up — much slower,” McBride said.

Consequently, cash investors may enjoy returns that have the potential to outpace inflation for longer, he said.

Still, there are risks for savers to watch.

The policies put in place under the next presidential administration may affect both inflation and interest rates, Cox said.

“If inflation picks back up, it could be hard to earn a beatable yield in cash,” Cox said.

In that case, stocks may provide a better way to beat inflation, though there are no guarantees on prospective returns, she said.

Regardless of whether investors opt for cash or stocks, they need to be asking themselves why they’re making those choices and what they need that money for, she said.

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Majority of Americans are financially stressed from tariff turmoil: CNBC survey

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73% of Americans are financially stressed

Americans are growing increasingly uneasy about the state of the U.S. economy and their own personal financial situation in the face of stubborn inflation and tariff wars.

To that point, 73% of respondents said they are “financially stressed,” with 66% of that group pointing to the tariff wars as a main source, according to a new CNBC/Survey Monkey online poll.

The survey of 4,200 U.S. adults was conducted April 3 to 7.

Americans feeling financially stressed

CNBC/Survey Monkey polls from 2023, 2024, and this year have found that, on average, more than 70% of Americans said that they are stressed about their personal finances. This year’s survey found that 38% of respondents overall said they are “very stressed,” and 29% of high-earners with incomes of $100,000 or more also shared that sentiment.

Consumers are, of course, increasingly stressed by rising prices for essentials like food, energy, and shelter. This is due to a number of factors, including rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events.

In the new CNBC survey, 86% of Americans cite inflation as the top reason for their financial stress, while 75% pointed to interest rates and 66% cited tariffs. 

While inflation peaked at 8% in 2022, a 40-year high, it has since cooled significantly, reaching 2.4% in March. Despite this decline, the increased prices during 2022 have led to a loss of purchasing power for Americans, meaning they can buy less with the same amount of money than before.

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It would take nearly $114 today to buy what would have cost $100 in January of 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And while Inflation has eased, experts do say the fallout from President Trump’s trade war threatens to put upward pressure on prices in the months to come.

Tariffs are generally considered to be inflationary, economists say. This is because tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can then be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This can lead to a temporary increase in the overall inflation rate.

“We know that tariffs are inflationary,” said David McWilliams, an economist, podcaster and author. “We know that’s hitting on people’s expectations of how much money they’re going to have in their pocket in a couple of months time.”

So, when it comes to financial stress caused by tariffs, 59% of those surveyed by CNBC oppose President Trump’s tariff policy, with 72% concerned about the impact on their personal financial situation.

As a result, 32% said they have delayed or avoided making retail purchases, and 15% said they have “stocked up.”

What’s more, 34% of those surveyed said they have made changes to their investments due to recent stock market volatility from tariffs.

Managing your money through volatility

Handling financial stress

Many investors are concerned about their retirement savings, but financial experts say it’s important for those with a long-term perspective to understand that short-term market volatility is a distraction that’s better off ignored.

“The biggest thing is that it’s unknown, and when we don’t know things, and we can’t control things, that’s when our anxiety and our worry can spike, and it’s contagious,” said licensed therapist and executive coach George James, CNBC Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board member, a licensed therapist and executive coach.

While the market could be in for a bumpy ride over the next few months, experts say it’s best to stay the course and avoid making major portfolio changes based on the latest news.

To manage investments during the latest tariff volatility, for example, financial advisors urge investors to maintain a long-term perspective, review and potentially adjust their asset allocation, and consider diversification to mitigate risk. It’s also smart to bolster emergency funds, review your risk tolerance, and explore opportunities for tax-loss harvesting.

Financial experts also urge investors to focus on their risk appetite — and their goals.

“This is the time to evaluate short-, mid-, and long-term financial needs, concerns, and goals. Evaluation before action or inaction is essential,” said Michael Liersch, head of advice and planning at Wells Fargo, said in an e-mail to CNBC. “Getting specific on exact dollar targets, timelines around these targets, and their level of importance [priority] can create clarity around what should be done, if anything.”

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What advisors are telling their clients after the bond market sell-off

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As investors digest the latest bond market sell-off, advisors have tips about portfolio allocation amid continued market volatility.

Typically, investors flock to fixed income like U.S. Treasurys when there’s economic turmoil. The opposite happened this week with a sharp sell-off of U.S. government bonds, which dropped bond prices as yields soared. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. 

Treasury yields then retreated Wednesday afternoon when President Donald Trump temporarily dropped tariffs to 10% for most countries but increased levies on Chinese goods. That duty now stands at 145%.

As of Thursday afternoon, Treasury yields were down slightly.

Still, “there’s a massive amount of uncertainty,” Kent Smetters, a professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, told CNBC.

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Experts closely watch the 10-year Treasury yield because it’s tied to borrowing rates for products like mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. The yield climbed above 4.5% overnight on Tuesday as investors offloaded the asset. As of Thursday afternoon, the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.4%.

Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, told CNBC on Thursday that bond market volatility likely added “a little more urgency” to Trump’s tariff decision. 

As some investors question their bond allocations, here’s what advisors are telling their clients.

Take the ‘proactive approach’

Despite the latest bond market sell-off, there hasn’t been a recent shift in client portfolios for certified financial planner Lee Baker, owner of Apex Financial Services in Atlanta. 

“I’ve been taking a proactive approach” by shifting allocations early based on the threat of future tariffs, said Baker, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

With concerns about future inflation triggered by tariffs, Baker has increased client allocations of Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, which can provide a hedge against rising prices.

Consider ‘guardrails’

Ivory Johnson, a CFP and founder of Delancey Wealth Management in Washington, D.C., has also been defensive with client portfolios. 

“I’ve used instruments to give me guardrails,” such as buffer exchange-traded funds to limit losses while capping upside potential, said Johnson, who is also a member of CNBC’s FA Council.

Buffer ETFs use options contracts to provide a pre-defined range of outcomes over a set period. The funds are tied to an underlying index, such as the S&P 500. These assets typically have higher fees than traditional ETFs.

Seeking safety amid market volatility: Strategies to keep your money safe

Take a ‘temperature check’

With future stock market volatility expected, investors should revisit risk tolerance and portfolio allocations, Baker said. 

“This is a good time for a temperature check,” he said.

Market turmoil has happened before and will happen again. If you can’t stomach the latest drawdowns — in stocks or bonds — this is a chance to shift to more conservative holdings, Baker said. 

“We’re not selling because I’m concerned about the market,” he added. “I’m concerned about comfort level.”

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Social Security COLA projected to be lower in 2026. Tariffs may change that

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The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 is projected to be the lowest increase that millions of beneficiaries have seen in recent years.

This could change, however, due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs. 

Recent estimates for the 2026 COLA, based latest government inflation data, place the adjustment to be around 2.2% to 2.3%, which are below the 2.5% increase that went into effect in 2025.

The COLA for 2026 may be 2.2%, estimates Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst. Meanwhile, the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, estimates next year’s adjustment could be 2.3%.

If either estimate were to go into effect, the COLA for 2026 would be the lowest increase since 2021, when beneficiaries saw a 1.3% increase.

As the Covid pandemic prompted inflation to rise, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustments rose to four-decade highs. In 2022, the COLA was 5.9%, followed by 8.7% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.

The 2.5% COLA for 2025, while the lowest in recent years, is closer to the 2.6% average for the annual benefit bumps over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League.

To be sure, the estimates for the 2026 COLA are indeed preliminary and subject to change, experts say.

The Social Security Administration determines the annual COLA based on third-quarter data for Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.

New government inflation data released on Thursday shows the CPI-W has increased 2.2% over the past 12 months. As such, the 2.5% COLA is currently outpacing inflation.

Yet that may not last depending on whether the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs go into effect. Trump announced on Wednesday that tariff rates for many countries will be dropped to 10% for 90 days to allow more time for negotiations.

Tariffs may affect 2026 Social Security COLA

If the tariffs are implemented as planned, economists expect they will raise consumer prices, which may prompt a higher Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 than currently projected.

“We could see the effect of inflation in the coming months, and it could very well be by the third quarter,” Johnson said.

If that happens, the 2026 COLA could go up to 2.5% or higher, she said.

Retirees are already struggling with higher costs for day-to-day items like eggs, according to the Senior Citizens League. Meanwhile, new tariff policies may keep food prices high and increase the costs of prescription drugs, medical equipment and auto insurance, according to the senior group.

Most seniors do not feel Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustments keep up with the economic realities of the inflation they personally experience, the Senior Citizens League’s polls have found, according to Alex Moore, a statistician at the senior group.

“Seniors generally feel that that the inflation they experience is higher than the inflation reported by the CPI-W,” Moore said.

When costs are poised to go up and the economic outlook is uncertain, seniors may be more likely to feel financial stress because their resources are more fixed and stabilized, he said.

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