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A 20% S&P 500 ‘three-peat’ is unlikely in 2025, market strategist says

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Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the opening bell in New York City on Feb. 12, 2025. 

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

Stock market investors enjoyed lofty annual returns over the past two years. However, 2025 may not offer a “three-peat,” investment analysts say.

The S&P 500 stock market index yielded a 23% return for investors in 2024 and 24% in 2023. (Those returns were 25% and 26%, respectively, with dividends.)

Three consecutive years of total returns of more than 20% for U.S. stocks is a historical rarity. It has only happened once — in the late 1990s — dating back to 1928, according to Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

“Do we expect an S&P 500 Index three-peat in 2025? In short, no,” Wren wrote in a market commentary Wednesday.

S&P 500 could still see double-digit gains despite higher yields: Strategist

The U.S. stock market has delivered average annual returns of roughly 10% since 1926, according to Dimensional, an asset manager. After accounting for inflation, stocks have consistently returned an average 6.5% to 7% per year dating to about 1800, according to a McKinsey analysis.

“We have been spoiled as investors” the past two years, said Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

“Twenty-percent gains haven’t been the norm,” Cox said. “Twenty percent gains are the exception.”

What might ruin the party?

While history “isn’t gospel,” there are reasons to think the stock market may not perform as well in 2025, Cox said.

For one, there are many uncertainties that could negatively impact the stock market, including tariffs and a potential rebound in inflation, Wren said. A surge in bond yields might also pose a headwind, Wren wrote in a market commentary. (Higher yields could dampen demand for U.S. stocks.)

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Additionally, technology companies have been a major driver of S&P 500 returns in recent years but may not be poised for the same outperformance this year, Cox said.

Tech stocks suffered a rout in late January, for example, amid fears of a Chinese artificial intelligence startup called DeepSeek undercutting major U.S. players. Those stocks have largely recovered since then, however.

In all, a rosy backdrop of solid economic growth and consumer spending, coupled with relatively low unemployment, may push the S&P 500 up by about 12% in 2025, Wren wrote. That would be slightly better than the long-term historical average, he said.

“So do not be disappointed,” Wren wrote. “We think investors should be optimistic.”

However, investors shouldn’t let high expectations cloud judgment about market risks, Cox said.  

The current environment is one in which investors should “prioritize portfolio balance” and long-term investors should ensure their portfolio is in line with their targets, she said.

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Personal Finance

Maximizing Returns in High Rate Climate and market uncertainty

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Maximizing Returns in High-Rate Climate

In the macroeconomic environment of late July 2026, personal cash management requires an active, structured approach to wealth preservation. With central bank benchmark rates remaining elevated to ensure long-term disinflation, conservative yield-bearing vehicles—such as short-term U.S. Treasury bills, money market funds, and high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs)—continue to offer reliable nominal returns between 4% and 5%. For individual investors, maximizing net returns requires moving beyond passive checking accounts and executing a disciplined cash laddering strategy.

Leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional bank deposits creates an invisible drag on personal net worth due to ongoing inflation. By implementing a tiered liquidity framework, individuals can split emergency cash reserves and short-term capital allocations across rolling maturities. Allocating cash into 4-week, 8-week, and 13-week Treasury bills creates a continuous cycle of maturing liquidity, allowing investors to continuously reinvest capital at prevailing market yields while maintaining immediate access to emergency funds.

Tax efficiency represents a critical dimension of high-yield cash optimization. For high-earning individuals residing in states with substantial local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury instruments often deliver superior net post-tax yields compared to standard commercial bank HYSAs. Because interest earned on federal Treasury bills is strictly exempt from state and local taxation, investors can retain a larger portion of their compounding interest gains without taking on additional credit or market risk.

Ultimately, personal wealth accumulation in mid-2026 relies on intentional capital deployment. Cash should be managed as a productive asset class that generates consistent, risk-free returns. Regularly auditing account yield terms, automating recurring transfers, and leveraging tax-advantaged fixed-income instruments ensures that personal liquidity remains fully optimized against macroeconomic fluctuations.

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Personal Finance

Algorithmic Wealth Management: Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

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Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

The personal finance industry in July 2026 is experiencing a technological evolution, driven by the wide deployment of next-generation algorithmic wealth management tools. Modern digital financial platforms have expanded far beyond basic automated index investing; today’s robo-advisors utilize real-time tax-loss harvesting, dynamic portfolio rebalancing, and hyper-personalized spending analysis to optimize retail investor outcomes. However, as these digital solutions become ubiquitous, investors face the crucial challenge of balancing automated execution with human strategic judgment.

The core advantage of automated financial planning platforms lies in their ability to remove emotional bias from investment execution. During periods of market volatility or localized sector realignments, automated algorithms systematically rebalance portfolios back to target asset allocations without falling victim to panic selling or speculative enthusiasm. Furthermore, integrated cash-flow monitoring algorithms analyze individual spending patterns in real time, automatically sweeping surplus income into designated retirement or debt-liquidation accounts to accelerate net worth accumulation.

Despite these operational advantages, algorithmic tools have inherent structural limitations when addressing complex, highly personalized financial life events. Decisions involving multi-generational estate planning, highly complex tax strategies, small business exits, or nuanced real estate transactions require contextual human judgment that software models cannot replicate. Relying solely on automated models without periodic human professional review can result in misaligned risk profiles or overlooked tax liabilities during major life transitions.

The optimal approach for personal financial planning in late 2026 is a hybrid advisory model. Individuals should utilize automated platforms for routine asset allocation, continuous tax optimization, and low-cost passive index tracking, while engaging qualified human financial advisors for periodic strategic planning, estate structuring, and qualitative risk evaluations. This dual approach ensures maximum cost efficiency and disciplined execution while retaining essential strategic guidance.

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Personal Finance

High-Yield Optimization: Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

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Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

In the financial environment of mid-2026, personal cash management has re-emerged as a vital component of holistic wealth building. With central bank policy rates holding firm to maintain long-term price stability, yield-bearing instruments such as money market funds, high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs), and short-term Treasury bills continue to offer compounding returns around 4% to 5%. For individual investors, effectively structuring cash reserves requires shifting away from passive bank deposits toward active yield optimization.

A frequent pitfall in personal asset management is leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional checking or low-yield savings accounts, where real returns are continuously eroded by baseline inflation. By implementing a disciplined ‘cash ladder’ strategy—allocating liquid funds across tiered maturities using ultra-short Treasury instruments and FDIC-insured high-yield accounts—individuals can secure maximal yields while retaining immediate liquidity for emergency expenses or tactical investment opportunities.

Simultaneously, investors must evaluate the tax efficiency of their cash holdings based on their tax bracket and geographic location. For high earners situated in states with high local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury bills often yield a higher net post-tax return than standard high-yield savings accounts, as Treasury interest is strictly exempt from state and local taxation. Understanding these nuanced tax distinctions allows individuals to capture significant incremental gains without taking on additional market risk.

Ultimately, personal financial health in late 2026 hinges on intentional liquidity management. Cash reserves should not be viewed merely as static emergency funds, but as a dynamic asset class that contributes positively to net worth growth. Regularly auditing yield terms, automating cash transfers, and optimizing for post-tax efficiency ensures that personal capital remains fully productive across all economic conditions.

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