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America really could enter a golden age

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Maybe you are in the habit of applying a hefty discount to claims by Donald Trump; no one could blame you. But he really does have the chance to lead America into the golden age he proclaimed in his second inaugural address. Historic circumstances, political dynamics and his own audacity could also enable him to achieve the legacy he wants as “a peacemaker and a unifier”. His party has fallen into lockstep; his adversaries at home are confounded and enervated, and America’s opponents abroad are preoccupied with their own troubles. Mr Trump has battled for ten years against anyone he perceived to have crossed him. His most formidable adversary still standing is probably himself.

As he assumes office again, Mr Trump has embarked on a marketing offensive, a familiar routine, albeit this time with a twist: rather than having to persuade people something is grander than it is—that the Trump Tower in Manhattan has 68 floors rather than 58—he has to assign himself credit for things that are truthfully better than Americans may yet realise. America’s economy is the envy of the world. America is already exporting record amounts of gas and oil, and its biggest obstacle to pumping more is global demand. But Mr Trump’s declaration in his inaugural address of a “national energy emergency” may help him vault to the head of the kind of parade celebrating American glory that poor President Joe Biden lacked the wherewithal to summon.

Similar gamesmanship explains Mr Trump’s inaugural commitment that Americans would now “be able to buy the car of your choice”, which was equally true under Mr Biden (and equally untrue for those who chose a Ferrari but could not afford one), and his pledge to use troops to “repel the disastrous invasion of our country” at the southern border, where arrests for illegal crossings are below the level when Mr Trump left office.

Yet Mr Trump’s initial executive orders are meant to do more than gild the lily. In some cases they call for drastic action, particularly on immigration. As with Mr Trump’s promises of tariffs and his exhumation of “manifest destiny”, no one knows how far he may go with his deportation initiative. But there is also a bigger, more hopeful possibility: Could his showy crackdown be part of a grand plan for the golden age?

In Mr Trump’s first term some of his aides saw the potential of linking enhanced border security to broader reform of America’s immigration system. For all his harsh oratory about immigrants, Mr Trump has sometimes sounded sympathetic, particularly about people brought as children. Last October, he told the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal he had a practical reason for his tough talk about illegal immigration: “The nicer I become, the more people that come over illegally.” (The Biden administration learned that lesson to its sorrow.) But, Mr Trump said, “We have a lot of good people in this country, and we have to do something about it.” In general, said Mr Trump, who is married to an immigrant, and not for the first time, “I want a lot of people to come in, but I want them to come in legally.”

Mr Trump tries to win over any room he walks into, and that may explain his comments to the Journal editors. But he may also recognise that he has amassed more credibility with immigration hardliners than any president in memory, and thus has an opening to achieve what his recent predecessors could not. Comprehensive immigration reform has eluded presidents since 1986, when Ronald Reagan signed into law heightened border security along with amnesty for almost 3m people in America illegally.

Other grand, bipartisan bargains are possible for Mr Trump. He has not displayed interest in the kind of far-reaching tax reform that Reagan achieved, but in his first term he showed a flash of ambition for the sort of gun-safety legislation that polls show a majority of Americans want. “It’s not going to be talk like it has been in the past,” he told grieving parents and students after a 19-year-old gunman killed 17 people at a Florida high school in 2018. “It’s been going on too long, too many instances, and we’re going to get it done.” He scolded Republican lawmakers for being “scared” of the National Rifle Association (but then, after talking to NRA officials himself, backed off).

Such deals at home would realise Mr Trump’s vision of being a unifier. His opportunities to prove himself a peacemaker, extending America’s golden aura beyond its shores, await not in Panama but in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, where war may have wearied America’s allies but has surely weakened its adversaries, Russia and Iran. The test for Mr Trump is whether he can insist on fair deals for Ukraine, and for the Palestinians.

With malice toward some

From Abraham Lincoln to Franklin Roosevelt to Reagan, presidents who accomplished great things appear more as unifiers in the eyes of history than they did in those of their contemporaries. They were all dividers, too. They were also subjected to vicious criticism and even violent attack.

But Mr Trump has yet even to hint at the grandeur of spirit that those presidents brought to the job. The petty partisanship of his inaugural address, along with his pardons of even violent January 6th convicts, bode poorly for the chances he will ever overcome the weaknesses likely to cast a shadow over what could be a golden age: self-pity, a flickering attention span, a vulnerability to flattery and a reverence for strongmen. “Trump’s sense of aggrievement reinforced his penchant for seeking affirmation from his most loyal supporters rather than broadening his base of support,” General H.R. McMaster concludes in “At War With Ourselves”, his memoir about his time as Mr Trump’s national security adviser during the first term. “Trump’s indiscipline made him the antagonist in his own story.” And in America’s.

Economics

British businesses pile on the pressure on U.K. Fin Min Reeves

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Rachel Reeves, UK chancellor of the exchequer, outside 11 Downing Street ahead of presenting her budget to parliament in London, UK, on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Home improvement retailer Kingfisher became the latest British company to report a negative impact from U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ October budget — as she prepares her latest update on the state of the British economy.

In its annual earnings release on Tuesday, Kingfisher, which owns home improvement retailer B&Q, said the government’s policies had “raised costs for retailers and impacted consumer sentiment,” with sales of big-ticket items falling.

It is the latest in a line of British businesses that have criticized Reeves’ bumper tax-rising budget since autumn. The companies will now be keeping a close eye on Reeves’ Spring Statement, when she’s set to update lawmakers on her latest spending and taxation plans at 12:30 p.m. London time Wednesday.

Top on the businesses’ list of complaints is a higher employment cost after the government pledged in October to increase national insurance contributions from employers and raised the country’s “national living wage” by 6.7% from April 1.

On Sunday, Reeves defended the tax rises ahead of the Wednesday statement, telling Sky News the government “took the action that was necessary to ensure our public services and public finances were on a firm footing.”

However, a number of consumer-facing businesses have flagged concerns with the Labour government’s economic policies in their earnings reports this quarter. They include supermarket giant Tesco, which said its higher national insurance contributions could add up to £250 million ($324 million) to annual costs, while the chairman of pub chain JD Wetherspoon, Tim Martin, said the changes will cost every one of his pubs £1,500 per week. 

Regis Schultz, CEO of sportswear retailer JD Sports, said the policies mean it was tempting for businesses to reduce staff numbers and hours, “which will be bad news for the economy.” 

It comes as the U.K. battles economic sluggishness, rising prices and widespread uncertainty as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the country’s independent public finances watchdog, is reportedly expected to downgrade the U.K.’s growth forecasts for 2025 on Wednesday, halving its previous 2% estimate.

AB Foods, which owns budget fashion retailer Primark, blamed the Labour government’s budget as contributing to broader consumer weakness in the country. Finance Director Eoin Tonge told analysts that customers across its brands were cautious, citing “a shock and a fear, that’s driven people to pull in their horns.” That view was shared by clothing retailer Frasers Group, which said it saw weaker consumer confidence around the budget announcement. The company’s Chief Financial Officer Chris Wootton told Reuters the company “felt we’d been kicked in the face.”

The slew of negative corporate commentary is expected to pile pressure on Reeves ahead of her Spring Statement.

The British Retail Consortium has called on the government to “inject confidence into the economy,” warning that April’s rise in tax contributions and the minimum wage will generate £5 billion in additional costs for retailers, giving “many no option but to push prices up.”

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said Reeves “must inject business with a serious confidence boost” on Wednesday.

“As an immediate priority the government should re-commit to not raising the business tax burden further over the course of this Parliament,” Louise Hellem, chief economist of the CBI, said in a statement. “Setting an ambitious goal for R&D spending, making it easier to invest in skills and taking measures to reduce the regulatory burden on business would be encouraging moves that would show the government understood what business needs to see from them.”

Goldman Sachs Chief Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer meanwhile told CNBC on Monday that concerns over consumer and business confidence will see Reeves focus on cutting costs rather than raising taxes this week, but said the government’s focus on boosting growth was “a laudable objective, a difficult thing to do.”

CNBC has reached out to the U.K. Treasury for comment.

CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

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Economics

America’s Supreme Court tackles a thorny voting-rights case

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Louisiana v Callais, a case the Supreme Court heard on March 24th, contains a political puzzle. Why is the solidly Republican state defending a congressional map that cost the party a seat in 2024—and will likely keep that seat in Democratic hands after the 2026 midterms, when the fight to control the House of Representatives could be very close?

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Economics

Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low

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Shoppers walk near a Nordstrom store at the Westfield UTC shopping center on Jan. 31, 2025 in San Diego, California.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Consumer confidence dimmed further in March as the view of future conditions fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 93.5.

However, the measure for future expectations told an even darker story, with the index tumbling 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession ahead.

The index measures respondents’ outlook for income, business and job prospects.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

The survey comes amid worries over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs against U.S. imports, which has coincided with a volatile stock market and other surveys showing waning sentiment.

The fall in confidence was driven by a decline in those 55 or older but was spread across income groups.

In addition to the general pessimism, the outlook for the stock market slid sharply, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting higher equity prices in the next year. That marked a 10 percentage point drop from February and was the first time the view turned negative since late-2023.

The view on the labor market also weakened, with those expecting more jobs to be available falling to 16.7%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose to 28.5%. The respective February readings were 18.8% and 26.6%.

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