Now that China’s key ministers have spoken on stimulus, analysts have narrowed down the stocks likely to benefit. Chinese stocks have tempered their recent rally as investors await more policy details. Data out Friday showed retail sales and industrial production for September beat expectations, while the real estate slump remained pronounced. Third-quarter GDP grew by 4.6%, mildly better than expected. “Overall, GDP growth YTD has been 4.8% which is slightly behind the government’s growth target of 5.0%,” David Chao, global market strategist of Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) at Invesco, said in a note Friday. “But given the recently announced stimulus measures,” he said. “I’m confident that growth is likely to accelerate in Q4 which is likely to boost full year 2024 growth above the 5.0% level.” Beyond interest rate cuts, the most tangible Chinese stimulus policies include subsidies to boost consumption with a trade-in program, along with incremental property market support. The central bank on Friday further detailed its new program to lend funds to companies to buy stocks. This stock-support program will likely benefit some names more than others, Morgan Stanley analysts said in an Oct. 14 report. They screened for mainland-traded Chinese stocks with relatively high dividend yields and strong cash flow. From that pool, the analysts looked for names which trade at least 20% higher than their Hong Kong-listed shares, and have at least 10% implied upside to Morgan Stanley’s price target. The four overweight-rated names that met those screening criteria were: PetroChina , WeiChai Power , Aluminum Corp. and Anhui Conch Cement . 1857-SZ YTD mountain PetroChina in 2024 China’s housing minister Ni Hong on Thursday indicated Beijing would speed up financial support for completing qualified, unfinished real estate projects that have already been sold. He was the latest senior official to hold a press conference, after the central bank head in late September, the economic planner on Oct. 8 and the finance minister on Oct. 12. If developers can get more funding, that may not boost sales immediately, but it can help improve confidence, said Edward Chan, a director at S & P Global Ratings. His team estimates China’s property sales will decline this year and next — to less than half its peak from 2021 — before stabilizing in the second half of 2025. While Chinese property developers may not bounce back right away, HSBC analysts expect construction software company Glodon, listed in Shenzhen, can benefit from property market stabilization. Enterprise cloud company Sangfor, also listed in Shenzhen, derives 90% from small businesses and local governments, making it a “major beneficiary” of the finance ministry’s plans to support local governments, the HSBC analysts said in an Oct. 14 report. “Market focus will likely shift from policy to fundamentals, and market dynamics from a beta rally back to stock-picking,” the analysts said. As for beneficiaries of China’s efforts to boost consumption, the HSBC analysts like Hong Kong-listed consumer electronics company Xiaomi and robot vacuum cleaner company Roborock, listed in Shanghai. Retail sales beat expectations with growth of 3.2% in September. Home appliance sales surged by more than 30% in September, while furniture sales turned positive, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, when describing the impact of national trade-in policies. Even e-commerce giant Alibaba is notching benefits. The company, said government subsidies and platform benefits contributed to a more than seven-fold surge in pre-sales of home appliances during the first hour of its annual Singles Day shopping festival that kicked of Oct. 14. That’s 10 days earlier than last year. The holiday originated with a focus on Nov. 11.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: American Airlines — Shares slipped less than 1%, recovering from earlier losses, after the airline temporarily grounded all of its flights due to a technical issue. Broadcom — The semi stock added 2%, extending its December rally. Shares have surged more than 46% this month, propelling its 2024 gain above 112%. Big banks — Shares of some big bank stocks rose more than 1% amid news that a group of banks and business groups are suing the Federal Reserve over the annual stress tests, saying it “produces vacillating and unexplained requirements and restrictions on bank capital.” Citigroup , JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs shares gained more than 1% each. Arcadium Lithium — Shares rose more than 4% after the company announced its shareholders have approved the $6.7 billion sale to Rio Tinto . The deal is expected to close in mid-2025. International Seaways — The energy transportation provider surged 8% after an announcement that the company would be added to the S & P SmallCap 600 index, effective Dec. 30. The company will replace Consolidated Communications , which is soon to be acquired. Crypto stocks — Shares of stocks tied to the price of bitcoin rose as the cryptocurrency gave back recent losses amid a climb in tech names broadly. Crypto services provider Coinbase gained almost 3% and bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy gained more than 5%. Miners Riot Platforms and IREN gained 6% and 4%, respectively. U.S. Steel — The steel producer’s stock hovered near the flatline amid news that President Joe Biden will decide on the fate of its proposed acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel after a government panel failed to reach a decision . Apple — Apple shares gained 0.9% to notch a new all-time high. The stock has rallied nearly 34% year to date. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Lisa Han, Tanaya Macheel and Alex Harring contributed reporting.
A general view of the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, United States.
Samuel Corum | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests, according to a person familiar with the matter. A lawsuit is expected this week and could come as soon as Tuesday morning, the person said.
The Fed’s stress test is an annual ritual that forces banks to maintain adequate cushions for bad loans and dictates the size of share repurchases and dividends.
After the market close on Monday, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it is looking to make changes to the bank stress tests and will be seeking public comment on what it calls “significant changes to improve the transparency of its bank stress tests and to reduce the volatility of resulting capital buffer requirements.”
The Fed said it made the determination to change the tests because of “the evolving legal landscape,” pointing to changes in administrative laws in recent years. It didn’t outline any specific changes to the framework of the annual stress tests.
While the big banks will likely view the changes as a win, it may be too little too late.
Also, the changes may not go far enough to satisfy the banks’ concerns about onerous capital requirements. “These proposed changes are not designed to materially affect overall capital requirements, according to the Fed.
The CEO of BPI (Bank Policy Institute), Greg Baer, which represents big banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Fed announcement, saying in a statement “The Board’s announcement today is a first step towards transparency and accountability.”
However, Baer also hinted at further action: “We are reviewing it closely and considering additional options to ensure timely reforms that are both good law and good policy.”
Groups like the BPI and the American Bankers Association have raised concerns about the stress test process in the past, claiming that it is opaque, and has resulted in higher capital rules that hurt bank lending and economic growth.
In July, the groups accused the Fed of being in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act, because it didn’t seek public comment on its stress scenarios and kept supervisory models secret.