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As Trump berates Goldman, other economists agree that higher tariff inflation is coming

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People shop for pet supplies at a pet retail store in Manhattan on August 12, 2025 in New York City.

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Goldman Sachs is taking the heat for its call that heavier tariff-induced consumer inflation is ahead, but it’s far from alone in that view among its Wall Street brethren.

Despite investors’ embrace of Tuesday’s fairly benign consumer price index report, economists expect that the biggest impact to inflation is yet to come.

With pre-tariff inventories rolling off, effective tariff rates climbing higher and companies less willing to absorb higher costs from the duties, the general feeling is that consumers are increasingly going to feel the bite through the rest of the year.

“Tariffs could subtract 1% from GDP and add 1-1.5% to inflation, some of which has already occurred,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note. “There is considerable uncertainty around the degree of pass-through to consumer prices, given that this year’s tariff increases are well larger than anything in the post-war US experience.”

President Donald Trump lambasted Goldman Sachs on Tuesday for research the firm’s economists released over the weekend asserting that consumers will take on a significantly stronger hit from tariffs through the end of the year. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle, appearing Wednesday on CNBC, defended the call and said the firm was undeterred by Trump’s criticism.

In a Truth Social post, the president suggested CEO David Solomon fire the economist who wrote the piece or consider resigning himself.

However, if every market economist who is in the same camp on tariff impacts were to be dismissed, there would be a lot of empty desks on Wall Street.

Inflation to creep higher

Most see at least a steady grind higher in prices as tariff clarity emerges and what looks to be effective rates around 18% — compared with around 3% at the start of the year — take root, with some caveats.

“It appears that the downward trend in core inflation has been broken as tariffs start to feed through into retail prices,” UBS senior economist Brian Rose wrote. “We expect inflation to continue on a gradual upward trend as businesses pass along their higher costs, but slowing shelter inflation and push-back from increasingly stretched consumers should help offset some of the tariff impact.”

To be sure, no one is calling for runaway inflation — more like monthly gains of 0.3%-0.5%. That’s enough to push the Federal Reserve’s preferred core measure to somewhere in the low- to mid-3% range.

Moreover, whatever the acceleration ends up being, it’s not expected to dissuade the Fed from starting to lower interest rates after staying on the sidelines through all of 2025 so far. Economists figure a deteriorating labor market along with a belief that the inflation move will be temporary to allow for easier monetary policy.

However, in the near term rising inflation could hold back consumer spending and dent growth through the rest of the year. JPMorgan sees the hit to gross domestic product, two-thirds of which comes from consumption, at “a bit under 1%.”

The Blue Chip Economic Indicators report for August, which surveys the leading economic names on Wall Street, sees GDP growth averaging just 0.85% in the second half of this year. But that’s actually better than the 0.75% forecast from July as some of the most pessimistic forecasters changed their outlooks on the view “that the constraining effect of tariffs is expected to be temporary, as projected growth improves considerably next year,” the August report said.

Worries ahead

Causes for concern in the near term include the Aug. 29 expiration of de minimis tariff exceptions, which had allowed goods valued at under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free. That could hit retail goods in particular.

Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts a 1 percentage point gain to core inflation, which it sees ultimately hitting 3.5% by the end of the year.

“Only about a quarter of that uplift has filtered through to consumers so far, so we see a strong chance core goods prices will rise at a faster pace over coming months,” the firm said.

BNP Paribas noted that it expects the price increases to go beyond goods as recent surveys are “suggesting upward pressure in services input prices.”

“The Fed’s main worry about inflation is less the exact level and more the question of stickiness,” the firm added in a note. “The July [CPI] print, with surprising strength in core services, is therefore not compellingly good news.”

The issue of inflation “stickiness” is important as well.

The Cleveland Fed’s measure of sticky price CPI inflation, which includes items such as rent, food away from home, insurance, household furnishings and the like, has shown a steady uptick. It’s at 3.8% on a three-month annualized basis, the highest since May 2024. Flexible-price inflation, such as food, energy and motor vehicle parts, is running much lower.

“Tariffs will lead to higher inflation in the months ahead,” PNC chief economist Gus Faucher wrote. “With the core CPI picking up in July, and higher prices coming as businesses pass along higher tariff costs to their customers, core PCE inflation is set to move even further above the Fed’s target in the months ahead.”

Though most of the Street expects the path to rate cuts opening, higher inflation could give policymakers some hesitation even with a weaker labor market, Faucher said.

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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