Finance

Banks aren’t in the clear just yet

Published

7 months ago

October 10, 2024

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Tom Brenner

Tom Brenner | Reuters

Falling interest rates are usually good news for banks, especially when the cuts aren’t a harbinger of recession.

That’s because lower rates will slow the migration of money that’s happened over the past two years as customers shifted cash out of checking accounts and into higher-yielding options like CDs and money market funds.

When the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point last month, it signaled a turning point in its stewardship of the economy and telegraphed its intention to reduce rates by another 2 full percentage points, according to the Fed’s projections, boosting prospects for banks.

But the ride probably won’t be a smooth one: Persistent concerns over inflation could mean the Fed doesn’t cut rates as much as expected and Wall Street’s projections for improvements in net interest income — the difference in what a bank earns by lending money or investing in securities and what it pays depositors — may need to be dialed back.

“The market is bouncing around based on the fact that inflation seems to be reaccelerating, and you wonder if we will see the Fed pause,” said Chris Marinac, research director at Janney Montgomery Scott, in an interview. “That’s my struggle.”

So when JPMorgan Chase kicks off bank earnings on Friday, analysts will be seeking any guidance that managers can give on net interest income in the fourth quarter and beyond. The bank is expected to report $4.01 per share in earnings, a 7.4% drop from the year-earlier period.

Known unknowns

While all banks are expected to ultimately benefit from the Fed’s easing cycle, the timing and magnitude of that shift is unknown, based on both the rate environment and the interplay between how sensitive a bank’s assets and liabilities are to falling rates.

Ideally, banks will enjoy a period where funding costs fall faster than the yields on income-generating assets, boosting their net interest margins.

But for some banks, their assets will actually reprice down faster than their deposits in the early innings of the easing cycle, which means their margins will take a hit in the coming quarters, analysts say.

For large banks, NII will fall by 4% on average in the third quarter because of tepid loan growth and a lag in deposit repricing, Goldman Sachs banking analysts led by Richard Ramsden said in an Oct. 1 note. Deposit costs for large banks will still rise into the fourth quarter, the note said.

Last month, JPMorgan alarmed investors when its president said that expectations for NII next year were too high, without giving further details. It’s a warning that other banks may be forced to give, according to analysts.

“Clearly, as rates go lower, you have less pressure on repricing of deposits,” JPMorgan President Daniel Pinto told investors. “But as you know, we are quite asset sensitive.”

There are offsets, however. Lower rates are expected to help the Wall Street operations of big banks because they tend to see greater deal volumes when rates are falling. Morgan Stanley analysts recommend owning Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup for that reason, according to a Sept. 30 research note.

Regional optimism

Regional banks, which bore the brunt of the pressure from higher funding costs when rates were climbing, are seen as bigger beneficiaries of falling rates, at least initially.

That’s why Morgan Stanley analysts upgraded their ratings on US Bank and Zions last month, while cutting their recommendation on JPMorgan to neutral from overweight.

Bank of America and Wells Fargo have been dialing back expectations for NII throughout this year, according to Portales Partners analyst Charles Peabody. That, in conjunction with the risk of higher-than-expected loan losses next year, could make for a disappointing 2025, he said.

“I’ve been questioning the pace of the ramp up in NII that people have built into their models,” Peabody said. “These are dynamics that are difficult to predict, even if you are the management team.”

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Finance

Klarna doubles losses in first quarter as IPO remains on hold

Published

1 hour ago

May 19, 2025

Business Finance News

Sebastian Siemiatkowski, CEO of Klarna, speaking at a fintech event in London on Monday, April 4, 2022.

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images

Klarna saw its losses jump in the first quarter as the popular buy now, pay later firm applies the brakes on a hotly anticipated U.S. initial public offering.

The Swedish payments startup said its net loss for the first three months of 2025 totaled $99 million — significantly worse than the $47 million loss it reported a year ago. Klarna said this was due to several one-off costs related to depreciation, share-based payments and restructuring.

Revenues at the firm increased 13% year-over-year to $701 million. Klarna said it now has 100 million active users and 724,00 merchant partners globally.

It comes as Klarna remains in pause mode regarding a highly anticipated U.S. IPO that was at one stage set to value the SoftBank-backed company at over $15 billion.

Klarna put its IPO plans on hold last month due to market turbulence caused by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plans. Online ticketing platform StubHub also put its IPO plans on ice.

Prior to the IPO delay, Klarna had been on a marketing blitz touting itself as an artificial intelligence-powered fintech. The company partnered up with ChatGPT maker OpenAI in 2023. A year later, Klarna used OpenAI technology to create an AI customer service assistant.

Last week, Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski said the company was able to shrink its headcount by about 40%, in part due to investments in AI.

Watch CNBC's full interview with Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski

Finance

Stocks making the biggest premarket moves: Walmart, Netflix, Tesla, Reddit and more

Published

2 hours ago

May 19, 2025

Business Finance News

These are the stocks posting the largest moves in the premarket.

Finance

UK to regulate buy now, pay later firms like Klarna and Affirm

Published

3 hours ago

May 19, 2025

Business Finance News

Klarna is synonymous with the “buy now, pay later” trend of making a purchase and deferring payment until the end of the month or paying over interest-free monthly installments.

Nikolas Kokovlis | Nurphoto | Getty Images

The U.K. government on Monday laid out proposals to bring short-term loans under formal rules as it looks to clamp down on the “wild west” of the buy now, pay later sector.

Fintech firms like Klarna and Block’s Afterpay have flourished by offering interest-free financing on everything from fashion and gadgets to food deliveries — while at the same time stoking concerns around affordability. The space is highly competitive, with U.S. player Affirm launching in the U.K. just last year.

City Minister Emma Reynolds said in a statement Monday that the U.K.’s new rules were designed to tackle a sense of “wild west” in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) space, adding the measures “will protect shoppers from debt traps and give the sector the certainty it needs to invest, grow, and create jobs.”

Under the U.K. proposals, BNPL firms will be required to make upfront checks to ensure people can repay what they borrow and make it easier for customers to access refunds.

Consumers will also be able to take BNPL complaints to the Financial Ombudsman, a service created by the U.K. Parliament to settle disputes between consumers and financial services firms.

The rules are expected to come into force next year, according to the government.

Klarna said it has long supported calls to bring BNPL into the regulatory fold. “It’s good to see progress on regulation, and we look forward to working with the FCA on rules to protect consumers and encourage innovation,” a spokesperson for the company told CNBC via email.

“Regulation will give clarity and consistency to the sector, establishing a consistent operating environment and compliance standards for all providers,” spokesperson for Clearpay, the U.K. arm of Afterpay, said in an emailed statement.

“It will also create a more sustainable foundation for the future of BNPL as it continues to grow as an everyday payment option for consumers.”

While buy now, pay later firms have publicly expressed support for regulation, many were concerned about regulators applying outdated rules to their business models. The Consumer Credit Act, which regulates lending and borrowing in the U.K., has existed for over 50 years.

For its part, the government said it plans to adapt the Consumer Credit Act to allow for a “modern, pro-growth framework that reflects how people borrow today.”

WATCH: CNBC’s full interview with Affirm CEO Max Levchin