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Berkshire’s cash pile could top $200 billion as Buffett sells stock

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Warren Buffett walks the floor and meets with Berkshire Hathaway shareholders ahead of their annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3rd, 2024. 

David A. Grogan

Berkshire Hathaway‘s highly scrutinized cash pile could top $200 billion — more than the entire annual gross domestic product of Hungary — amid CEO Warren Buffett’s rare sale of some of his favorite stocks.

The Omaha-based conglomerate is likely to say its cash hoard topped the previous record of $189 billion, set in the first quarter, when it reports second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. Berkshire’s results come at a time when Buffett has been offloading winning investments in Apple, Bank of America and BYD, leading some to believe the Oracle of Omaha has grown concerned that the bull market is overheated.

“It does look like he wants to de-risk the portfolio a little bit,” Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust Company and a Berkshire shareholder, said early in the week. “He’s trimming two top holdings and you don’t get anything more economically sensitive than the banks. The market seems so sure right now of a soft landing, and maybe he’s taking more of a contrarian view.”

Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for six straight quarters. Notably, Buffett trimmed his massive Apple bet by 13% in the first quarter for tax reasons after reaping enormous gains. The selling could have resumed in the second quarter as shares of the iPhone maker jumped 23% in the period.

Meanwhile, in a surprising move, the conglomerate recently started dumping Bank of America shares — its second-biggest holding after Apple. Over the past 12 trading sessions, Berkshire has sold $3.8 billion of the Charlotte-based bank’s shares. (The BofA sales began in July and won’t be reflected in the second-quarter report.)

Buffett’s gigantic war chest has been earning sizeable returns thanks to the jump in Treasury yields over the past two years, but with interest rates set to decline from multiyear highs, his mounting cash pile could once again draw questions. If invested in three-month Treasury bills at about 5%, $200 billion in cash would generate about $10 billion a year, or $2.5 billion a quarter, but those returns are set to decline once the Federal Resewrve starts lowering interest rates.

“It’s just a question of how long they are going to sit on it,” Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen’s Berkshire analyst, said in an interview, referring to Berkshire’s enormous cash pile.

‘Things aren’t attractive’

Buffett, who turns 94 at the end of the month, confessed at Berkshire’s annual meeting in May that he’s open to putting more capital to work, but high prices give him pause.

“I think it’s a fair assumption that [cash holdings] will probably be about $200 billion at the end of this quarter,” the investment icon said at the time. “We’d love to spend it, but we won’t spend it unless we think [a business is] doing something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money… it isn’t like I’ve got a hunger strike or something like that going on. It’s just that…things aren’t attractive.”

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Berkshire Hathaway

Weakness in non-insurance

Investors will also closely study the quarterly results for Berkshire’s BNSF Railway and Berkshire Hathway Energy utility business, which recently showed signs of weakness. BNSF is grappling with wage increases and revenue declines, while BHE faces pressure from being held liable for damage caused by wildfires.

“The non-insurance side will weigh on the results, whether it’s the sluggish volumes in railroad coupled with higher labor costs, or utilities, which could put up a good quarter, but nobody’s going to be excited about that just given the liability exposure,” said TD Cowen’s Kligerman, who recently initiated research coverage of Berkshire with a hold rating.

Conversely, Berkshire’s insurance business has been a bright spot, with a 185% year-over-year increase in insurance underwriting earnings in the first quarter.

Shares of Berkshire have rallied more than 21% this year, outperforming the S&P 500’s 14% return, through Thursday. The conglomerate’s market capitalization has ballooned to $956 billion, close to joining the tiny number of U.S. stocks valued at $1 trillion or more.

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Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally

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ETF shelters from the Middle East War

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”

It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.

A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.

But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.

Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.

The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.

Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.

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Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.

Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.

“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.

He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.

For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.

But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.

While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.

Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said. 

But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.” 

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Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment

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ETF Stress Tests: How funds are showing resilience in the face of uncertainty

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.

According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.

“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”

His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.

“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”

Liquidity as the real issue?

Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.

“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”

He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.

“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.

Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.

“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.

Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.

“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”

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Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks

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Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.

Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.

Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.

“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”

When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.

“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”

The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.

JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.

“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”

‘Attack mode’

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