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Bigger tax refund in 2026 for some under Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’

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Certain filers could see bigger tax refunds next year, thanks to retroactive changes enacted via President Donald Trump‘s “big beautiful bill,” according to analyst projections.

The July legislation added several tax breaks that apply to 2025 — including a larger standard deduction, “bonus” deduction for older adults and tax break on tips, among others. Those could affect returns filed in 2026. 

However, many workers are still having the same tax withheld from their paychecks as before Trump’s law because the IRS hasn’t updated the 2025 tax tables that tell companies how much to take out.

“As a result, many taxpayers will pay too much in tax this year and see larger tax refunds or smaller tax bills next year,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in an October report.

A separate note released Friday from investment bank Piper Sandler projected “a record tax refund season in 2026,” with middle and upper-income households likely to benefit the most. An estimated $91 billion of tax relief could arrive between February and April 2026, with $59 billion paid via refunds and $32 billion from lower taxes owed, according to the note.

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Another report from J.P. Morgan Asset Management in August also predicted higher tax refunds for some filers based on IRS tax withholding tables staying the same.

Typically, you get a refund when you overpay taxes throughout the year. For W-2 workers, that largely depends on your paycheck withholding throughout the year.

The reports come amid economic uncertainty for many families as the government shutdown continues and a looming deadline approaches to fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which provides food stamps to more than 40 million Americans.  

In 2025, most filers planned to use tax refunds for essential expenses, such as rent, groceries and paying down credit card debt, according to a survey from Talker Research, commissioned by TaxSlayer, that polled 2,000 U.S. taxpayers in December 2024.

However, higher earners are expected to save the “majority” of refunds issued in 2026, according to the Piper Sandler report.

The average refund through Oct. 17 was $3,052 for 2025, up slightly from $3,004 in 2024, according to the latest IRS data reported last week.

Not everyone will see a bigger refund

While some taxpayers could see a higher refund in 2026, others won’t see much of a difference compared with previous tax years, according to Alex Muresianu, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

For example, certain new tax breaks apply only to “specific types of income,” such as overtime pay or tipped earnings, he said. Both deductions have restrictions and income limitations.

Another tax break that could apply to a subset of filers is the bigger cap on the federal deduction for state and local taxes, or SALT. Most taxpayers don’t claim the SALT deduction because it’s restricted to those who itemize tax breaks.

For many filers, Trump’s new law is an extension of the sweeping tax cuts enacted in 2017. “The basic structure of it is going to be very much the same tax code that you’ve been used to for the past eight years,” Muresianu said. 

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Personal Finance

Maximizing Returns in High Rate Climate and market uncertainty

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Maximizing Returns in High-Rate Climate

In the macroeconomic environment of late July 2026, personal cash management requires an active, structured approach to wealth preservation. With central bank benchmark rates remaining elevated to ensure long-term disinflation, conservative yield-bearing vehicles—such as short-term U.S. Treasury bills, money market funds, and high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs)—continue to offer reliable nominal returns between 4% and 5%. For individual investors, maximizing net returns requires moving beyond passive checking accounts and executing a disciplined cash laddering strategy.

Leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional bank deposits creates an invisible drag on personal net worth due to ongoing inflation. By implementing a tiered liquidity framework, individuals can split emergency cash reserves and short-term capital allocations across rolling maturities. Allocating cash into 4-week, 8-week, and 13-week Treasury bills creates a continuous cycle of maturing liquidity, allowing investors to continuously reinvest capital at prevailing market yields while maintaining immediate access to emergency funds.

Tax efficiency represents a critical dimension of high-yield cash optimization. For high-earning individuals residing in states with substantial local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury instruments often deliver superior net post-tax yields compared to standard commercial bank HYSAs. Because interest earned on federal Treasury bills is strictly exempt from state and local taxation, investors can retain a larger portion of their compounding interest gains without taking on additional credit or market risk.

Ultimately, personal wealth accumulation in mid-2026 relies on intentional capital deployment. Cash should be managed as a productive asset class that generates consistent, risk-free returns. Regularly auditing account yield terms, automating recurring transfers, and leveraging tax-advantaged fixed-income instruments ensures that personal liquidity remains fully optimized against macroeconomic fluctuations.

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Personal Finance

Algorithmic Wealth Management: Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

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Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

The personal finance industry in July 2026 is experiencing a technological evolution, driven by the wide deployment of next-generation algorithmic wealth management tools. Modern digital financial platforms have expanded far beyond basic automated index investing; today’s robo-advisors utilize real-time tax-loss harvesting, dynamic portfolio rebalancing, and hyper-personalized spending analysis to optimize retail investor outcomes. However, as these digital solutions become ubiquitous, investors face the crucial challenge of balancing automated execution with human strategic judgment.

The core advantage of automated financial planning platforms lies in their ability to remove emotional bias from investment execution. During periods of market volatility or localized sector realignments, automated algorithms systematically rebalance portfolios back to target asset allocations without falling victim to panic selling or speculative enthusiasm. Furthermore, integrated cash-flow monitoring algorithms analyze individual spending patterns in real time, automatically sweeping surplus income into designated retirement or debt-liquidation accounts to accelerate net worth accumulation.

Despite these operational advantages, algorithmic tools have inherent structural limitations when addressing complex, highly personalized financial life events. Decisions involving multi-generational estate planning, highly complex tax strategies, small business exits, or nuanced real estate transactions require contextual human judgment that software models cannot replicate. Relying solely on automated models without periodic human professional review can result in misaligned risk profiles or overlooked tax liabilities during major life transitions.

The optimal approach for personal financial planning in late 2026 is a hybrid advisory model. Individuals should utilize automated platforms for routine asset allocation, continuous tax optimization, and low-cost passive index tracking, while engaging qualified human financial advisors for periodic strategic planning, estate structuring, and qualitative risk evaluations. This dual approach ensures maximum cost efficiency and disciplined execution while retaining essential strategic guidance.

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Personal Finance

High-Yield Optimization: Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

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Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

In the financial environment of mid-2026, personal cash management has re-emerged as a vital component of holistic wealth building. With central bank policy rates holding firm to maintain long-term price stability, yield-bearing instruments such as money market funds, high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs), and short-term Treasury bills continue to offer compounding returns around 4% to 5%. For individual investors, effectively structuring cash reserves requires shifting away from passive bank deposits toward active yield optimization.

A frequent pitfall in personal asset management is leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional checking or low-yield savings accounts, where real returns are continuously eroded by baseline inflation. By implementing a disciplined ‘cash ladder’ strategy—allocating liquid funds across tiered maturities using ultra-short Treasury instruments and FDIC-insured high-yield accounts—individuals can secure maximal yields while retaining immediate liquidity for emergency expenses or tactical investment opportunities.

Simultaneously, investors must evaluate the tax efficiency of their cash holdings based on their tax bracket and geographic location. For high earners situated in states with high local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury bills often yield a higher net post-tax return than standard high-yield savings accounts, as Treasury interest is strictly exempt from state and local taxation. Understanding these nuanced tax distinctions allows individuals to capture significant incremental gains without taking on additional market risk.

Ultimately, personal financial health in late 2026 hinges on intentional liquidity management. Cash reserves should not be viewed merely as static emergency funds, but as a dynamic asset class that contributes positively to net worth growth. Regularly auditing yield terms, automating cash transfers, and optimizing for post-tax efficiency ensures that personal capital remains fully productive across all economic conditions.

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