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Budget deficit rose in December and is now 40% higher than it was a year ago

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A view from the United States Department of the Treasury building in Washington DC, United States on December 30, 2024. The US Treasury Department was cyberattacked by a Chinese state-sponsored actor in early December. 

Celal Gunes | Anadolu | Getty Images

The federal budget sank further into red ink during December, leaving the first fiscal quarter deficit nearly 40% higher than it was the prior year.

For the final calendar month of 2024, the shortfall totaled $86.7 billion, which actually represented a 33% decline for the same period a year prior, according to a Treasury Department report Tuesday. However, that brought the three-month fiscal year total to $710.9 billion, some $200 billion more than the comparable period in the prior year, or 39.4%.

Rising financing costs along with continued spending growth and declining tax receipts have combined to send deficits spiraling, pushing the national debt past the $36 trillion mark.

Though short-term Treasury yields have held fairly steady over the past month, rates at the far end of the duration curve have surged. The benchmark 10-year note most recently yielded close to 4.8%, or about 0.4 percentage point above where it was a month ago.

At the same time, outlays during the first quarter were 11% higher than a year ago while receipts fell by 2%.

Interest on the national debt has totaled $308.4 billion in fiscal 2025, up 7% from a year ago. Financing costs are projected to top $1.2 trillion for the full year, which would top 2024’s record.

The government this year has spent more on interest payments than any other category but Social Security, defense and health care.

Economics

America’s Supreme Court tackles a thorny voting-rights case

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Louisiana v Callais, a case the Supreme Court heard on March 24th, contains a political puzzle. Why is the solidly Republican state defending a congressional map that cost the party a seat in 2024—and will likely keep that seat in Democratic hands after the 2026 midterms, when the fight to control the House of Representatives could be very close?

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Economics

Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low

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Shoppers walk near a Nordstrom store at the Westfield UTC shopping center on Jan. 31, 2025 in San Diego, California.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Consumer confidence dimmed further in March as the view of future conditions fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 93.5.

However, the measure for future expectations told an even darker story, with the index tumbling 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession ahead.

The index measures respondents’ outlook for income, business and job prospects.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

The survey comes amid worries over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs against U.S. imports, which has coincided with a volatile stock market and other surveys showing waning sentiment.

The fall in confidence was driven by a decline in those 55 or older but was spread across income groups.

In addition to the general pessimism, the outlook for the stock market slid sharply, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting higher equity prices in the next year. That marked a 10 percentage point drop from February and was the first time the view turned negative since late-2023.

The view on the labor market also weakened, with those expecting more jobs to be available falling to 16.7%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose to 28.5%. The respective February readings were 18.8% and 26.6%.

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Economics

A shambolic leak reveals Team Trump’s contempt for allies

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MANY KNOW the mortification of sending the wrong text message to the wrong person. But when the fat thumb is that of America’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, the message is a detailed military plan to bomb Yemen and the recipient is a prominent journalist, the error is not just a cause of shame but potentially a serious breach of national security.

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