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China doubles down on AI and tech as Trump ratchets up trade pressure

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A security guard watches during the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 5, 2025. 

Wang Zhao | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING — The undercurrent of China’s annual parliamentary meetings this week is U.S. trade tensions — and how Chinese technology is offsetting that pressure.

The largely ceremonial gathering of delegates in Beijing this year came just as U.S. President Donald Trump addressed Congress and imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods. It’s a clear drag on exports, while Chinese companies have only faced tougher restrictions on accessing high-end semiconductors and other advanced tech.

“Internationally … an increasingly complex and severe external environment may exert a greater impact on China in areas such as trade, science and technology,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in his annual report on government work at the opening ceremony of the National People’s Congress on Wednesday, according to an official English translation of the Chinese.

It was an unusually grim assessment at least among the seven parliamentary meetings I have attended. But I also sensed a greater willingness to support the private sector than in the past — especially as it relates to tech innovation, such as with Chinese AI company DeepSeek.

“We will promote the healthy and well-regulated development of the platform economy and give better play to its role in inspiring innovation, expanding consumption and stabilizing employment,” Li said in the work report.

That marked the latest signal that Beijing now wants to support the private sector after previously taking a far more restrictive stance and imposing large fines on tech giants Alibaba and Tencent, often called “platform“ companies in China. Many companies and industries in China have historically been dominated by the state.

China is likely to double down on transformative tech and winning global south amid trade war

DeepSeek’s recent rise demonstrated to many international investors — who had grown cautious on the slowing economy — how a Chinese company could compete with the U.S. on AI, regardless of White House sanctions.

Beijing was quick to affirm the startup’s success. DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng attended a meeting with Premier Li in January, and a symposium with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February.

AI to counter protectionism?

While DeepSeek didn’t get a specific mention in the government work report, a member of the team that drafted the report named it — and applications such as Kuaishou’s Kling AI for video generation — while talking to the press on Wednesday about China’s rapid AI development.

“Historically, technological progress is often an important force for breaking through barriers and protectionism,” Chen Changsheng, who is also deputy director of the State Council Research Office, said in Mandarin translated by CNBC.

“We look forward to how under the current international backdrop, AI will become a positive energy to promote cooperation and multilateralism,” he said.

HONG KONG, CHINA – JANUARY 28: In this photo illustration, the DeepSeek apps is seen on a phone in front of a flag of China on January 28, 2025 in Hong Kong, China.  

Anthony Kwan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

“Tech” got one more mention in this year’s report versus last year, and “reform” got 10 more mentions, according to the Chinese-language versions. Tech self-reliance also got its own sub-section in China’s latest annual work report, in contrast to a passing mention in 2024.

A new law

China’s legislature has been discussing a new law to support the private sector. Beijing has said it would be enacted as soon as possible after further discussions and revisions.

This year, policy will likely be driven more from the bottom up, rather than the top down, said Ding Wenjie, investment strategist for global capital investment at China Asset Management Co., according to a CNBC translation of her Mandarin-language remarks.

She expects growth in AI and leading tech to spur development of other industries, but cautioned that it will likely take companies more than just one or two quarters to see results.

China’s parliamentary meetings officially wrap up early next week. More official comments on tech and the private sector law are expected to trickle out in coming days.

Among the top priorities for the year ahead, Premier Li said, is supporting “the extensive application of large-scale AI models.” Beijing plans to increase funding for biomanufacturing, quantum technology, AI-linked robotics and 6G technology.

Oxford Economics shares its take on whether China will achieve its GDP growth target this year

The industry-specific goals come as China is trying to boost consumer spending, minimize the drag from real estate and navigate trade tensions with the U.S.

China’s “policy focus is to accelerate AI adoption and autonomous driving, while make gradual progress in restructuring housing and [local government financing vehicle] debt,” Morgan Stanley’s chief China Economist Robin Xing and a team said in a note Wednesday. They noted that the “fiscal package came as expected: a [2 trillion yuan ($280 billion)] expansion with mild support on consumption.”

Chinese official comments during this week’s meetings hint at a preference for open-source models.

Chen on the work report drafting team warned against “excessive” use of private AI projects that could fragment the market, and instead called for “large-scale applications.”

China will also work to increase computing capacity and develop “a system of open-source models,” the economic planning agency, called the National Development and Reform Commission, said in its plan for the year ahead.

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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