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China doubles down on AI and tech as Trump ratchets up trade pressure

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A security guard watches during the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 5, 2025. 

Wang Zhao | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING — The undercurrent of China’s annual parliamentary meetings this week is U.S. trade tensions — and how Chinese technology is offsetting that pressure.

The largely ceremonial gathering of delegates in Beijing this year came just as U.S. President Donald Trump addressed Congress and imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods. It’s a clear drag on exports, while Chinese companies have only faced tougher restrictions on accessing high-end semiconductors and other advanced tech.

“Internationally … an increasingly complex and severe external environment may exert a greater impact on China in areas such as trade, science and technology,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in his annual report on government work at the opening ceremony of the National People’s Congress on Wednesday, according to an official English translation of the Chinese.

It was an unusually grim assessment at least among the seven parliamentary meetings I have attended. But I also sensed a greater willingness to support the private sector than in the past — especially as it relates to tech innovation, such as with Chinese AI company DeepSeek.

“We will promote the healthy and well-regulated development of the platform economy and give better play to its role in inspiring innovation, expanding consumption and stabilizing employment,” Li said in the work report.

That marked the latest signal that Beijing now wants to support the private sector after previously taking a far more restrictive stance and imposing large fines on tech giants Alibaba and Tencent, often called “platform“ companies in China. Many companies and industries in China have historically been dominated by the state.

China is likely to double down on transformative tech and winning global south amid trade war

DeepSeek’s recent rise demonstrated to many international investors — who had grown cautious on the slowing economy — how a Chinese company could compete with the U.S. on AI, regardless of White House sanctions.

Beijing was quick to affirm the startup’s success. DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng attended a meeting with Premier Li in January, and a symposium with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February.

AI to counter protectionism?

While DeepSeek didn’t get a specific mention in the government work report, a member of the team that drafted the report named it — and applications such as Kuaishou’s Kling AI for video generation — while talking to the press on Wednesday about China’s rapid AI development.

“Historically, technological progress is often an important force for breaking through barriers and protectionism,” Chen Changsheng, who is also deputy director of the State Council Research Office, said in Mandarin translated by CNBC.

“We look forward to how under the current international backdrop, AI will become a positive energy to promote cooperation and multilateralism,” he said.

HONG KONG, CHINA – JANUARY 28: In this photo illustration, the DeepSeek apps is seen on a phone in front of a flag of China on January 28, 2025 in Hong Kong, China.  

Anthony Kwan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

“Tech” got one more mention in this year’s report versus last year, and “reform” got 10 more mentions, according to the Chinese-language versions. Tech self-reliance also got its own sub-section in China’s latest annual work report, in contrast to a passing mention in 2024.

A new law

China’s legislature has been discussing a new law to support the private sector. Beijing has said it would be enacted as soon as possible after further discussions and revisions.

This year, policy will likely be driven more from the bottom up, rather than the top down, said Ding Wenjie, investment strategist for global capital investment at China Asset Management Co., according to a CNBC translation of her Mandarin-language remarks.

She expects growth in AI and leading tech to spur development of other industries, but cautioned that it will likely take companies more than just one or two quarters to see results.

China’s parliamentary meetings officially wrap up early next week. More official comments on tech and the private sector law are expected to trickle out in coming days.

Among the top priorities for the year ahead, Premier Li said, is supporting “the extensive application of large-scale AI models.” Beijing plans to increase funding for biomanufacturing, quantum technology, AI-linked robotics and 6G technology.

Oxford Economics shares its take on whether China will achieve its GDP growth target this year

The industry-specific goals come as China is trying to boost consumer spending, minimize the drag from real estate and navigate trade tensions with the U.S.

China’s “policy focus is to accelerate AI adoption and autonomous driving, while make gradual progress in restructuring housing and [local government financing vehicle] debt,” Morgan Stanley’s chief China Economist Robin Xing and a team said in a note Wednesday. They noted that the “fiscal package came as expected: a [2 trillion yuan ($280 billion)] expansion with mild support on consumption.”

Chinese official comments during this week’s meetings hint at a preference for open-source models.

Chen on the work report drafting team warned against “excessive” use of private AI projects that could fragment the market, and instead called for “large-scale applications.”

China will also work to increase computing capacity and develop “a system of open-source models,” the economic planning agency, called the National Development and Reform Commission, said in its plan for the year ahead.

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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