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China needs a narrative that house prices are going to rise

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Pictured here is a real estate project under construction in Huai ‘an city, Jiangsu province, China, on April 8, 2024. 

Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — China needs to convince people that home prices are on their way up in order for economic activity to pick up, Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick last week.

Business and consumer appetite for new loans have had a tepid start to the year, while home prices dropped at a steeper pace in January than in February, according to Goldman Sachs’ analysis.

In other words, as Koo warned last year, China may be entering a “balance sheet recession,” similar to what Japan experienced during its economic slump.

“For them to come back and borrow money, we need a narrative that says, okay, this is the bottom of the prices, the prices will start going up from this point onwards,” Koo said.

But it’s not clear whether prices have reached an actual bottom yet. Koo and other analysts have pointed out that in China’s policy-driven economy, house prices have not fallen as much as expected given declines in other aspects of the property market.

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Chinese officials have said that real estate remains in a period of “adjustment.” The country has also been emphasizing new growth drivers such as manufacturing and new energy vehicles.

Real estate and related sectors have accounted for at least one-fifth of China’s economy, depending on analyst estimates. The property market began its latest slump after Beijing cracked down on developers’ high reliance on debt in 2020.

That coincided with the shock from the Covid-19 pandemic.

It also comes as China’s population has started to shrink, Koo pointed out — a big difference with Japan, whose population didn’t start to fall until 2009, he said.

“That makes this narrative, that the prices have fallen enough, you should go out and borrow and buy houses, even more difficult to justify because [the] population is now shrinking,” Koo said.

Lessons from history

China’s economy officially grew by 5.2% in 2023, the first year since the end of Covid-19 controls. Beijing has set a target of around 5% growth for 2024.

However, many analysts have said such a goal is ambitious without more stimulus.

Chinese authorities have been reluctant to embark on large-scale support for the economy. Koo said an underlying reason is that Beijing views its prior stimulus program as a mistake.

About 15 years ago, in the wake of the global financial crisis, China launched a 4 trillion yuan ($563.38 billion) stimulus package that was initially met with skepticism — and a 70% drop in Chinese stock prices, Koo said.

“It was heading toward balance sheet recession, almost,” he said. “One year later, China had 12% growth.”

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But Beijing kept up its stimulus package even after the country had achieved rapid growth, which led to an overheating of growth and speculation, on top of corruption, Koo said. “That’s one of the reasons why this government, Mr. Xi Jinping, is still reluctant to put [out] a large package because so many people think the previous one was a failure.”

Looking ahead, Koo said China should stimulate its economy to avoid a balance sheet recession, and that it should cut that support once growth reaches 12%. “Once the borrow[ing] is coming back, then you can cut, but not before.”

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Trump CFPB cuts reviewed by Fed inspector general

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Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Russell Vought attends a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 10, 2025.

Nathan Howard | Reuters

The Federal Reserve’s inspector general is reviewing the Trump administration’s attempts to lay off nearly all Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employees and cancel the agency’s contracts, CNBC has learned.

The inspector general’s office told Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., that it was taking up their request to investigate the moves of the consumer agency’s new leadership, according to a June 6 letter seen by CNBC.

“We had already initiated work to review workforce reductions at the CFPB” in response to an earlier request from lawmakers, acting Inspector General Fred Gibson said in the letter. “We are expanding that work to include the CFPB’s canceled contracts.”

The letter confirms that key oversight arms of the U.S. government are now examining the whirlwind of activity at the bureau after Trump’s acting CFPB head Russell Vought took over in February. Vought told employees to halt work, while he and operatives from Elon Musk‘s Department of Government Efficiency sought to lay off most of the agency’s staff and end contracts with external providers.

That prompted Warren and Kim to ask the Fed inspector general and the Government Accountability Office to review the legality of Vought’s actions and the extent to which they hindered the CFPB’s mission. The GAO told the lawmakers in April that it would examine the matter.

“As Trump dismantles vital public services, an independent OIG investigation is essential to understand the damage done by this administration at the CFPB and ensure it can still fulfill its mandate to work on the people’s behalf and hold companies who try to cheat and scam them accountable,” Kim told CNBC in a statement.

The Fed IG office serves as an independent watchdog over both the Fed and the CFPB, and has the power to examine agency records, issue subpoenas and interview personnel. It can also refer criminal matters to the Department of Justice.

Soon after his inauguration, Trump fired more than 17 inspectors general across federal agencies. Spared in that purge was Michael Horowitz, the IG for the Justice Department since 2012, who this month was named the incoming watchdog for the Fed and CFPB.

Horowitz, who begins in his new role at the end of this month, was reportedly praised by Trump supporters for uncovering problems with the FBI’s handling of its probe into Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Meanwhile, the fate of the CFPB hinges on a looming decision from a federal appeals court. Judges temporarily halted Vought’s efforts to lay off employees, but are now considering the Trump administration’s appeal over its plans for the agency.

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GameStop shares tank on convertible bond offering to potentially buy more bitcoin

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A Gamestop store is seen in Union Square on April 4, 2025 in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

GameStop shares slid on Thursday after the video game retailer and meme stock announced plans for a $1.75 billion convertible notes offering to potentially fund its new bitcoin purchase strategy.

The company said it intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, “including making investments in a manner consistent with GameStop’s Investment Policy and potential acquisitions.”

Part of the investment policy is to add cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet. Last month, GameStop bought 4,710 bitcoins, worth more than half a billion dollars.

The stock tanked more than 15% in premarket trading following the announcement.

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GameStop

GameStop is following in the footsteps of software company MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, which bought billions of dollars worth of bitcoin in recent years to become the largest corporate holder of the flagship cryptocurrency. That decision prompted a rapid, albeit volatile, rise for Strategy’s stock.

Strategy has issued various forms of securities including convertible debt to fund its bitcoin purchases.

CEO Ryan Cohen recently said GameStop’s decision to buy bitcoin is driven by macro concerns as the digital coin, with its fixed supply and decentralized nature, could serve as protection against certain risks.

The brick-and-mortar retailer reported a decline in fiscal first-quarter revenue on Tuesday as demand for online gaming rose. Its revenue dropped 17% year-over-year to $732.4 million. 

The shares fell 6% on Wednesday after those results. Wall Street appears uncertain it can mimic the success of MicroStrategy.

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter reiterated his underperform rating on GameStop Wednesday, saying the meme stock has consistently capitalized on “greater fools” willing to pay more than twice its asset value for its shares. The Wedbush analyst believes the bitcoin buying strategy makes little sense as the company, already trading at 2.4 times cash, isn’t likely to drive an even greater premium by converting more cash to crypto.

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