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China stimulus calls are growing louder, at home and abroad

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Local residents with umbrellas walk out of a metro station in rain during morning rush hour on September 20, 2024 in Beijing, China. 

China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images

BEIJING — More economists are calling for China to stimulate growth, including those based inside the country.

China should issue at least 10 trillion yuan ($1.42 trillion) in ultra-long government bonds in the next year or two for investment in human capital, said Liu Shijin, former deputy head of the Development Research Center at the State Council, China’s top executive body.

That’s according to a CNBC translation of Liu’s Mandarin-language remarks available on financial data platform Wind Information.

His presentation Saturday at Renmin University’s China Macroeconomy Forum was titled: “A basket of stimulus and reform, an economic revitalization plan to substantially expand domestic demand.”

Liu said China should make a greater effort to address challenges faced by migrant workers in cities. He emphasized Beijing should not follow the same kind of stimulus as developed economies, such as simply cutting interest rates, because China has not yet reached that level of slowdown.

Cutting interest rates in China is irrelevant for its economy right now: Peter Boockvar

After a disappointing recovery last year from the Covid-19 pandemic, the world’s second-largest economy has remained under pressure from a real estate slump and tepid consumer confidence. Official data in the last two months also points to slower growth in manufacturing. Exports have been the rare bright spot.

Goldman Sachs earlier this month joined other institutions in cutting their annual growth forecast for China, reducing it to 4.7% from 4.9% estimated earlier. The reduction reflects recent data releases and delayed impact of fiscal policy versus the firm’s prior expectations, the analysts said in a Sept. 15 note.

“We believe the risk that China will miss the ‘around 5%’ full-year GDP growth target is on the rise, and thus the urgency for more demand-side easing measures is also increasing,” the Goldman analysts said.

China’s highly anticipated Third Plenum meeting of top leaders in July largely reiterated existing policies, while saying the country would work to achieve its full-year targets announced in March.

Beijing in late July announced more targeted plans to boost consumption with subsidies for trade-ins including upgrades of large equipment such as elevators.

But several businesses said the moves were yet to have a meaningful impact. Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago, among the slowest growth rates since the post-pandemic recovery.

Real estate drag

China in the last two years has also introduced several incremental moves to support real estate, which once accounted for more than a quarter of the Chinese economy. But the property slump persists, with related investment down more than 10% for the first eight months of the year.

“The elephant in the room is the property market,” said Xu Gao, Beijing-based chief economist at Bank of China International. He was speaking at an event last week organized by the Center for China and Globalization, a think tank based in Beijing.

Xu said demand from China’s consumers is there, but they don’t want to buy property because of the risk the homes cannot be delivered.

Apartments in China have typically been sold ahead of completion. Nomura estimated in late 2023 that about 20 million such pre-sold units remained unfinished. Homebuyers of one such project told CNBC earlier this year they had been waiting for eight years to get their homes.

To restore confidence and stabilize the property market, Xu said that policymakers should bail out the property owners.

“The current policy to stabilize the property market is clearly not enough,” he said, noting the sector likely needs support at the scale of 3 trillion yuan, versus the roughly 300 billion yuan announced so far.

Different priorities

China’s top leaders have focused more on bolstering the country’s capabilities in advanced manufacturing and technology, especially in the face of growing U.S. restrictions on high tech.

“While the end-July Politburo meeting signaled an intention to escalate policy stimulus, the degree of escalation was incremental,” Gabriel Wildau, U.S.-based managing director at consulting firm Teneo, said in a note earlier this month.

“Top leaders appear content to limp towards this year’s GDP growth target of ‘around 5%,’ even if that target is achieved through nominal growth of around 4% combined with around 1% deflation,” he said.

In a rare high-level public comment about deflation, former People’s Bank of China governor Yi Gang said in early September that leaders “should focus on fighting the deflationary pressure” with “proactive fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy.”

However, Wildau said that “Yi was never in the inner circle of top Chinese economic policymakers, and his influence has waned further since his retirement last year.”

Local government constraints

China’s latest report on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment showed slower-than-expected growth.

“Despite the surge in government bond financing, infrastructure investment growth slowed markedly, as local governments are constrained by tight fiscal conditions,” Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a Sept. 14 note.

“We believe China’s economy potentially faces a second wave of shocks,” he said. “Under these new shocks, conventional monetary policies reach their limits, so fiscal policies and reforms should take the front seat.”

The PBOC on Friday left one of its key benchmark rates unchanged, despite expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut earlier this week could support further monetary policy easing in China. Fiscal policy has been more restrained so far.

“In our view, Beijing should provide direct funding to stabilize the property market, as the housing crisis is the root cause of these shocks,” Nomura’s Lu said. “Beijing also needs to ramp up transfers [from the central government] to alleviate the fiscal burden on local governments before it can find longer-term solutions.”

China’s economy officially still grew by 5% in the first half of the year. Exports surged by a more-than-expected 8.7% in August from a year earlier.

In the “short term, we must really focus to be sure [to] successfully achieve this year’s 2024 growth goals, around 5%,” Zhu Guangyao, a former vice minister of finance, said at the Center for China and Globalization event last week. “We still have confidence to reach that goal.”

When asked about China’s financial reforms, he said it focuses on budget, regional fiscal reform and the relationship between central and local governments. Zhu noted some government revenue had been less than expected.

But he emphasized how China’s Third Plenum meeting focused on longer-term goals, which he said could be achieved with GDP growth between 4% and 5% annually in the coming decade.

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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