Finance
China’s counter tariffs raise the specter of an intense trade war with U.S.
Published
3 weeks agoon

China’s and U.S.’ flags are seen printed on paper in this illustration taken January 27, 2022.
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
BEIJING — Risks of an intense U.S.-China trade war are rising rapidly, according to analysts, after Beijing responded more forcefully than many had expected to U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.
In a shift in tone, China also dropped its call for negotiations on trade in a weekend statement that condemned U.S. levies, raising the prospects of an extended period of tariff escalation.
“China has taken and will continue to take resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Saturday.
Beijing on Friday retaliated with levies of 34% on all U.S. goods — matching the latest duties by the Trump administration. Those came on top of the 10-15% tariffs China levied in March and February, which had focused on agricultural and energy products imported from the U.S.
“Raising tariff on all U.S. imports by the same amount as Trump’s latest tariff demonstrates China’s determination to go all the way to wherever the U.S. wants to be,” said Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent economist.
As part of the broad retaliatory measures, Beijing also placed export curbs on key rare earth elements, prohibited exports of dual-use items to a dozen of U.S. entities, mostly in defense and aerospace industries, and put 11 more U.S. firms to its “unreliable entities list,” subjecting them to broader restrictions while operating in China.
“Beijing’s aggressive posture signals that future retaliation will be more forceful, setting off an escalatory spiral and raising the odds of unmanaged decoupling in 2025,” a team of analysts at Eurasia Group said in a note.
China’s response will likely prompt further rounds of tariffs from the U.S. in an effort to discourage similar moves from other trading partners, Eurasia Group analysts said, noting that “some Trump officials view this as a unique time to double down on China in an effort to accelerate a decoupling of commercial ties.”
Beijing’s swift response came on the back of Trump’s announcement of additional 34% tariffs on China, raising the U.S. weighted average tariff rate on China to as high as 65%, according to Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.
That could stunt the world’s second-biggest economy by 1.5 to 2 percentage points this year, Xing estimates, citing slower exports growth and entrenched domestic deflation.
Negotiation standstill
Beijing’s shift toward a more “aggressive, escalatory” stance makes a near-term deal to end the trade war between the two superpowers “highly unlikely,” said economists at Capital Economics.

Until last Friday, Beijing’s actions were considered relatively restrained and measured. Trump had also made warm comments praising Chinese President Xi Jinping and expressed interests in arranging a bilateral meeting.
“The abandonment of restraint” in Beijing’s latest retaliatory measures likely reflects Chinese leadership’s “diminished hopes for a trade deal with the U.S., at least in the short term,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo said in a note.
Trump derided China’s latest response as an act of panic. In a post on social media platform TruthSocial, he said “China played it wrong, they panicked — the one thing they cannot afford to do!” The president has said that he would consider lowering tariffs on China if Beijing approves the sale of short video app TikTok to U.S. investors.
Yet Beijing may not be onboard with the sale. “National dignity is Beijing’s key consideration on TikTok, but exchanging TikTok for relief from newly imposed tariffs would carry the unmistakable whiff of China’s leaders yielding to bullying,” said Wildau.
Analysts at Eurasia Group, however, suggested Beijing still desires a deal and is prepared to negotiate. “Strong, asymmetric, tit-for-tat tariff retaliation is a precondition for Beijing to come to the negotiating table,” they added.
Without ruling out negotiations with the U.S., state-backed publication People’s Daily in an opinion piece said Beijing was “fully prepared in all aspects to handle potential shocks” with ample policy room to defend it economy.
People’s Daily, which is frequently used to convey official policy views, outlined Beijing’s plans to counter the economic fallout by boosting domestic consumption “with extraordinary strength,” lowering key policy rates whenever needed and further fiscal easing.
The diminishing prospect of a deal between Beijing and Washington has exacerbated a global market rout, sending the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index — which tracks Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong — down over 13% Monday, setting it on course for its worst day since the global financial crisis.
The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds plunged 9 basis points to 1.634%, according to LSEG data, while the offshore yuan weakened 0.35% to 7.3212 per dollar.
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Finance
Chinese factories stop production, eye new markets as U.S. tariffs hit
Published
7 hours agoon
April 27, 2025
Textile manufacturing workers in Binzhou, Shandong, China, on April 23, 2025.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — Chinese manufacturers are pausing production and turning to new markets as the impact of U.S. tariffs sets in, according to companies and analysts.
The lost orders are also hitting jobs.
“I know several factories that have told half of their employees to go home for a few weeks and stopped most of their production,” said Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions. He said factories making toys, sporting goods and low-cost Dollar Store-type goods are the most affected right now.
“While not large-scale yet, it is happening in the key [export] hubs of Yiwu and Dongguan and there is concern that it will grow,” Johnson said. “There is a hope that tariffs will be lowered so orders can resume, but in the meantime companies are furloughing employees and idling some production.”
Around 10 million to 20 million workers in China are involved with U.S.-bound export businesses, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. The official number of workers in China’s cities last year was 473.45 million.

Over a series of swift announcements this month, the U.S. added more than 100% in tariffs to Chinese goods, to which China retaliated with reciprocal duties. While U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday asserted trade talks with Beijing were underway, the Chinese side has denied any negotiations are ongoing.
The impact of the recent doubling in tariffs is “way bigger” than that of the Covid-19 pandemic, said Ash Monga, founder and CEO of Guangzhou-based Imex Sourcing Services, a supply chain management company. He noted that for small businesses with only several million dollars in resources, the sudden increase in tariffs might be unbearable and could put them out of business.
He said there’s so much demand from clients and other importers of Chinese products that he’s launching a new “Tariff Help” website on Friday to help small business find suppliers based outside China.
Livestreaming
The business disruption is forcing Chinese exporters to try new sales strategies.
Woodswool, an athleticwear manufacturer based in Ningbo, near Shanghai, quickly turned to selling the clothes online in China via livestreaming. After launching the sales channel about a week ago, the company said it’s received more than 30 orders with gross merchandise value of more than 5,000 yuan ($690).
It’s a small step toward salvaging lost business.
“All our U.S. orders have been canceled,” Li Yan, factory manager and brand director of Woodswool, said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.
More than half of production once went to the U.S., and some capacity will be idle for two to three months until the company is able to build up new markets, Li said. He noted the company has sold to customers in Europe, Australia and the U.S. for more than 20 years.
The venture into livestreaming is part of an effort by major Chinese tech companies, at the behest of Beijing, to help exporters redirect their goods to the domestic market.
Woodswool is selling its products online through Baidu, whose search engine app also includes a livestreaming e-commerce platform. Li said he chose the company’s virtual human livestreaming option since it allowed him to get up and running within two weeks, without having to spend time and money on renovating a studio and hiring a team.
Baidu said it has worked with at least several hundred Chinese businesses to launch domestic e-commerce channels after this month announcing it would provide subsidies and free artificial intelligence tools — such as its “Huiboxing” virtual humans — for 1 million businesses. The virtual humans are digitally recreated versions of people that use AI to mimic sales pitches and automate interactions with customers. The company claimed that return on investment was higher than that of using a human being.
Domestic market challenges
E-commerce company JD.com was one of the first to announce similar support, pledging 200 billion yuan ($27.22 billion) to buy Chinese goods originally intended for export — and find ways to sell them within China. Food delivery company Meituan has also announced it would help exporters distribute domestically, without specifying an amount.
However, $27.22 billion is only 5% of the $524.66 billion in goods that China exported to the U.S. last year.
“A few businesses have told us that under 125% tariffs, their business model is not workable,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters Friday. He also noted more competition among Chinese companies in the last week.
Tariffs from both countries will likely remain in place at a certain level, with exemptions for certain tariffs, Hart said. “That’s exactly what they’re backing into.”
Products branded and developed for a suburban U.S. consumer might not directly work for a Chinese apartment dweller.
Manufacturers have gone directly to Chinese social media platforms Red Note and Douyin, the local version of TikTok, to ask consumers to support them, but fatigue is growing, pointed out Ashley Dudarenok, founder of ChoZan, a China marketing consultancy.
Looking outside the U.S.
Fewer and fewer Chinese companies are considering diverting exports to the U.S. through other countries, given rising U.S. scrutiny of transshipments, she said. Dudarenok added that many companies are diversifying production to India over Southeast Asia, while others are turning from U.S. customers to those in Europe and Latin America.
Some companies have already built businesses on other trade routes from China.
Liu Xu runs an e-commerce company called Beijing Mingyuchu that sells bathroom products to Brazil. While his business has run into challenges from fluctuating exchange rates and high container shipping costs, Liu said he expects trade with Brazil will ultimately not be that affected by China’s tensions with the U.S.
China’s exports to Brazil have doubled between 2018 and 2024, as have China’s exports to Ghana.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, Ghana-based Cotrie Logistics was founded to help businesses with sourcing, coordinate shipments amid port delays and build dependable logistics routes, said CEO Bright Tordzroh. The company primarily works in trade between China and Ghana and now makes $300,000 to $1 million annually, he said.
The U.S.-China trade tensions have led many companies to explore sourcing and manufacturing locations outside the United States, Tordzroh said, which he hopes can create more opportunities for Cotrie.

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Finance
These are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week
Published
18 hours agoon
April 27, 2025
A security guard works outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the Federal Reserve announcement in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters
The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House.

U.S. brands are rapidly losing their appeal in China as locals increasingly prefer competitive homegrown players, especially as economic growth slows, according to a TD Cowen survey released Thursday. While overall preference for Western brands dropped to 9%, down from 14% last year, certain American companies face higher risks than others, the report said, citing in-person interviews of 2,000 consumers with varied income levels in larger Chinese cities. TD Cowen partnered with an unnamed Beijing-based advisory firm to conduct the survey in February 2025, following a similar study in May 2024. The analysts see Apple ranking among the better-positioned brands in China. But they warned that several other American companies face high regional risks despite management optimism. China’s top leaders on Friday acknowledged the growing effect of trade tensions, and pledged targeted measures for struggling businesses. The official readout stopped short of a full-on stimulus announcement. “This year’s survey was conducted before the US-China trade war intensified, though threats were on the horizon,” the TD Cowen analysts said. “Add this factor to the equation, and it’s easy to see why uncertainty will remain elevated and households are likely to remain cautious going forward.” The survey found income expectations declined, with the share of respondents expecting a decline in pay over the next 12 months rising to 10% from 6%. In particular, Chinese consumers plan to spend less on a beauty items over the next six months, the survey showed, while increasing their preference for Chinese brands. U.S. cosmetics giant Estée Lauder retained first place in terms of highest awareness among Western beauty brands in China, but preference among consumers dropped to 19.6% of respondents, down from 24.3% last year. That contrasted with increases in respondents expressing a preference for the second and third market players Lancome and Chanel, respectively. In the quarter that ended Dec. 31, Estée Lauder said its Asia Pacific net sales fell 11%, due partly to “subdued consumer sentiment in mainland China, Korea and Hong Kong.” Asia Pacific accounted for 32% of overall sales in the quarter. In the lucrative sportswear category, Nike “lost meaningful preference in every category” versus last year, while local competitors Li-Ning and Anta saw gains, the survey found. TD Cowen’s analysis showed that among U.S. sportswear brands facing the most earnings risk relative to consensus expectations, Nike has the highest China sales exposure at 15%. “The China market is one characterized as a growth opportunity for sport according to Nike management in its recent fiscal Q3:25 earnings call in March 2025,” the analysts said, “but that the macro offers an increasingly challenging operating environment.” It’s not necessarily about slower growth or nationalism. While the survey found a 4-percentage-point drop in preference for foreign apparel and footwear brands, it also showed a 3-percentage-point increase in the inclination to buy the “best” product regardless of origin. “The implied perception here is that Western brands are offering less in the way of best product or value,” the TD Cowen analysts said. Starbucks similarly is running into fierce local competition while trying to maintain prices one-third or more above that of competitor Luckin Coffee, the report said. The survey found that the U.S. coffee giant “lags peers in terms of value and quality perception improvement.” Other coffee brands such as Manner, Tim’s, Cotti, %Arabica and M Stand have also expanded recently in China. Starbucks’ same-store sales in China fell 6% year on year in the quarter that ended Dec. 29, bringing the region’s share of total revenue to just under 8%. More worrisome is that a highly anticipated coffee boom in China may not materialize. “We note daily and weekly frequency of purchase among coffee drinkers are decreasing, suggesting the coffee habit seen in the U.S. is not taking hold in China,” the analysts said. They noted a new ownership structure for Starbucks‘ China business would be positive for the stock given the lack of near-term catalysts. TD Cowen rates Starbucks a buy, but has hold ratings on Nike and Estée Lauder.

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