Pictured here is a Nio battery swapping station in Haikou, Hainan province, China, on May 9, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
BEIJING — Chinese electric car company Nio has been expanding its battery swap partnerships in a bid to gain an edge on the infrastructure side of the EV ecosystem.
Since November, Nio has partnered with at least four Chinese automakers — Changan, Geely, Chery and JAC — for developing battery swap standards and expanding the network in China.Nio also announced agreements earlier this year to work with two local battery companies on battery swap services.
All these efforts are aimed at alleviating consumers’ anxiety about driving range. While having a large network of battery charging stations helps address those concerns, battery swapping is a faster method as it takes only a few minutes.
“Swapping right now is mainly driven by Nio. Of course, Nio found out this is an ecosystem,” CLSA’s deputy head of research Ding Luo said in an interview. “If only one player is trying to build up the whole ecosystem, it’s impossible for [them]. That’s why they’re thinking whether they can invite some partners.”
Battery swapping still isn’t mainstream because the car batteries need to be standardized, he added.
While a charging station resembles a typical gas station, battery-swap technology is housed in a shed-like structure. It uses machines to automatically exchange depleted batteries for pre-charged ones in compatible cars.
Nio said in mid-March that it completed 40 million battery swaps compared with nearly 37 million charges at its public stations — Nio consumers can also access third-party charging stations, or install one at home.
“I think our outlook is very simple,” Shen Fei, senior vice president of Nio’s power division, said in Chinese translated by CNBC. “The first thing is to serve Nio’s users, and then provide a good battery charging and swapping experience, make charging more convenient than refueling, and at the same time help the company sell more cars.”
The company claims that with battery swap, drivers can get a fresh charge in three minutes, if they opt in for a paid battery service plan.
Shen said more car models will be added to Nio’s battery swap network, while adding that swapping can allow drivers to keep abreast with improvements in battery technology.He did not specify which automakers will likely be added to its network.
Power services and other products account for just about 10% of Nio’s total revenue. The company said that category of “other sales” for 2023 grew by 69% to 6.36 billion yuan ($895.9 million). Nio does not break out swap station revenue.
Battery swap’s checkered past
Battery swapping has been tried by the industry with mixed success, especially in the U.S.
Tesla and a startup called Better Space tried out swapping more than 10 years ago, but the venture soon closed.
While it’s not clear how much headway Ample has made in the U.S., the company has since expanded its partnerships overseas. Last month the company announced it would serve corporate car fleets in Kyoto, Japan, while it teamed up with Stellantis to roll out battery swaps this year in Madrid, Spain.
“For swapping to work it can’t be niche,” Tu Le, head of consultancy Sino Auto Insights, said. “Battery inventory investment is massive, so it needs to be amortized over lots of swapping.”
But he was cautious on whether Nio could sell enough of its own premium-priced cars to make the economics work. “For now I still think the combination of swapping and charging makes for a pretty attractive feature set, but swapping alone likely doesn’t help them sell that many more cars.”
“I think the nudge the Chinese government gave to encourage others to join forces with Nio on swapping could create the necessary pool of vehicles to make swapping viable,” he added.
The business of charging
Nio is the first major electric car company to roll out battery swap stations in addition to charging stations, alongside its own vehicles in mainland China and Europe.
The company has installed more than 2,300 battery swap stations, and plans to install 1,000 more this year.
Nio’s investment in battery swap stations is about two years ahead of market demand, CEO William Li said last month, adding that less than a fifth of battery swap stations that Nio operates are processing 60 orders a day, likely the minimum orders needed for a station to break even.
Nio’s battery charging stations, on the other hand, reached profitability last year, according to the company. It plans to build 20,000 more this year.
Passenger car battery swap stations can cost around $500,000 to build, while a relatively basic charging station with two ports costs around $200,000 to $300,000, according to Shay Natarajan, a North America-based partner at Mobility Impact Partners, a private equity fund that invests in transportation.
CLSA’s Luo said businesses also prefer to invest in normal charging stations than swap stations because they make a higher return. But if businesses want to install faster-charging stations, he said they might face power grid challenges.
CLSA’s analysis found that the power required for five superchargers in one location would be more than what 300 families would normally consume.
Tesla is also collaborating with automakers in battery charging, with its over 50,000 superchargers worldwide that claim to restore about two-thirds of a battery’s charge in 15 minutes.
The rapid development of electric cars, ostensibly aimed at reducing carbon emissions, also raises questions about battery waste.
Nio pointed out that recent growth of new energy vehicles, which include hybrids, means nearly 20 million batteries will be reaching the end of their eight-year warranty period between 2025 and 2032.
Last month, the company announced a partnership with battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology to develop batteries with a longer lifespan, particularly for those used in swap stations.
Nio claimed that by using battery swap and big data, it can retain 80% of a battery’s capacity after 12 years of use. Nio also said last month that CATL will develop batteries with longer lives for the company.
— CNBC’s Lora Kolodny and Michael Wayland contributed to this report.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a rally the day before he is scheduled to be inaugurated for a second term, in Washington, U.S., January 19, 2025.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
President-elect Donald Trump is poised to sign a flurry of executive orders as soon as he’s sworn in, but imposing tariffs on U.S. trading partners won’t be one of the actions Monday, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Trump is set to issue a broad trade memorandum Monday that directs federal agencies to study and assess unfair trade practices and currency policies with other nations, especially China, Canada and Mexico. However, the memo stopped short at slapping any new duties on the countries, according to the Journal, which reviewed a summary of the memo and spoke to Trump’s advisers.
Asked about Trump’s trade policy Monday morning ahead of the inauguration, White House officials referred to the Journal story, confirming the reporting.
The president-elect’s plan on trade could be evolving from what he touted on the campaign trail. His camp has been discussing a schedule of graduated tariffs increasing by about 2% to 5% a month on trading partners, Bloomberg News reported last week.
Trump once made universal tariffs a core tenet of his economic campaign pitch, floating a 20% levy on all imports from all countries with a specifically harsh 60% rate for Chinese goods.
Many economists feared that such protectionist trade policy could make production of goods more expensive and raise consumer prices, just as the world recovers from pandemic-era inflation spikes.
— Click here to read the original story from the Wall Street Journal.
Cho Tak Wong, the chairman of auto glass giant Fuyao Glass, bought the vacant General Motors manufacturing plant in Moraine, Ohio in 2014.
The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty Images
Chinese investments in the U.S. have dramatically declined since Donald Trump’s first term. This trend is unlikely to reverse as Trump returns to the White House, analysts said.
“That’s probably the last thing on Trump’s mind, is trying to incentivize [Chinese companies] to invest here,” said Rafiq Dossani, an economist at U.S.-based think tank RAND.
“There’s an ideological mismatch. All the rhetoric is, keep China out of the U.S., let their products come in, which are low-end,” he said in an interview earlier this month. But other than that, “don’t, don’t let them come in.”
In the last several weeks, Emirati property giant Damac has pledged $20 billion to build data centers in the U.S., while SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son announced a $100 billion investment for artificial intelligence development in the U.S. over Trump’s four-year term.
Chinese investment deals in the U.S. have slowed drastically, according to the latest American Enterprise Institute data. Just $860 million flowed into the U.S. in the first six months of 2024, following $1.66 billion in 2023. That’s down sharply from $46.86 billion in 2017, when Trump began his first term.
At the peak, Chinese companies had made high-profile U.S. acquisitions, such as buying the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York. But regulators on both sides have stemmed the flow.
“Chinese investment in the U.S. has slowed down dramatically since Beijing tightened control over capital outflows in 2017, followed by a series of regulatory policies in the U.S. aimed at excluding investments in certain sectors,” Danielle Goh, senior research analyst at Rhodium Group, said in an email.
In the “foreseeable future,” she doesn’t expect Chinese investments in the U.S. will recover the peak levels seen during the 2016 to 2017 period. Goh pointed out that instead of acquisitions, Chinese companies have turned more to small joint ventures with U.S. companies or greenfield investments, in which business are built from scratch.
For example, Chinese battery manufacturing company EVE Energy is the technology partner with a 10% stake in a joint venture with U.S. engine company Cummins’ Accelera division, Daimler Truck and PACCAR. The companies announced in June 2024 they were kicking off plans for a battery factory in Mississippi that would begin production in 2027 and create more than 2,000 jobs.
Since the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S.-China Chamber of Commerce has mostly helped Chinese e-commerce companies set up local offices, rather than establish manufacturing businesses, the nonprofit’s president Siva Yam told CNBC.
“Most of those investment nowadays tend to be a little bit smaller, so they are not on the radar, easier to approve,” he said, referring to regulators in both the U.S. and China. But he remained uncertain about whether Chinese companies could use investments to offset the impact of tariffs.
Individual U.S. states have grown increasingly wary of Chinese investment. Last spring, Politico reported that more than 20 states were passing new restrictions on land purchases by Chinese citizens and companies, or updating existing rules.
Chinese hackers in December targeted a government office that reviews foreign investment in the United States, CNN reported, citing U.S. officials. This was part of a wider breach of the Treasury Department, which declined a CNBC request for comment.
Deal-making strategy?
Trump has indicated tariffs may be used to coerce Chinese investment in the U.S.
In his speech accepting the Republican nomination, he said, “I will bring auto jobs back to our country, through the proper use of taxes, tariffs, and incentives, and will not allow massive auto manufacturing plants to be built in Mexico, China, or other countries.”
“The way they will sell their product in America is to BUILD it in America, and ONLY in America. This will create massive jobs and wealth for our country,” he said, according to an NBC News transcript.
Chinese battery giant CATL reportedly said in November it would build a U.S. plant if Trump allowed it. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Advocacy group Center for American Progress pointed out in December that during his first term, Trump cancelled restrictions on Chinese telecommunications company ZTE — just days after the Chinese government and Chinese banks invested $1 billion in a Trump Organization-affiliated theme park in Indonesia.
The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the ZTE deal or the opportunities for Chinese companies to invest in the U.S.
Even if Trump welcomed more Chinese investment, or coerced it through tariffs, large investments are long-term processes that won’t happen overnight, pointed out Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Then there’s the unpredictability of the president-elect’s policies.
“Trump saying the U.S. is open to Chinese companies in 2025 is no guarantee [even] for 2029,” he said.
As Chinese markets prepare for higher tariffs and hope for more government stimulus , Citigroup analysts say some of their top picks are high-yielding mainland stocks. “Yield plays in the A-share market have become more attractive amid the government bond yield drop,” Citi China equity strategists said in a report last week, referring to stocks that trade in mainland China. The persistent decline in China’s 10-year government bond yield — to record lows around 1.58% this month— prompted the People’s Bank of China on Jan. 10 to stop its government bond purchases . The yield has traded little changed around 1.64% in the week since. Citi analysts say the Chinese 10-year government bond yield can fall still further, given expectations that in the year ahead the PBOC will cut interest rates by 50 basis points and the required reserve ratio — the amount of cash banks need to keep on hand — by 100 basis points. One basis point equals 1/100th of a percentage point (0.01%). Meanwhile, rising U.S. Treasury yields, at least partly on expectations of tariff-induced inflation in the U.S., helped send Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index tumbling more than 8% between early December and mid-January, Citi said. Mainland Chinese stocks held up better, falling 6% — which Citi analysts attributed to easier monetary policy and falling Chinese government bond yields. Three of Citi’s top mainland Chinese stock picks by yield are Shanghai-listed electric bus company Yutong Bus and two Shenzhen-listed names: Gree Electric Appliances and Ping An Bank . Long-term investors have preferred China high-yield stocks for years, and the advantages have become more apparent with slower economic growth and lower bond yields, said Ye Yuhua, money manager at Guangzhou-based Liangdian Private Capital. Banks and home appliance stocks have tended to see yields of 4% to 6%, far above the sub-2% government bond yield benchmark, he said. The concern, however, is that high dividend yields are not necessarily a given, especially for stocks sensitive to commodity prices. Unpacking the tariff impact President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to impose additional tariffs of at least 10% on Chinese goods soon after his inauguration on Monday. Citi economists expect U.S. tariffs to kick in starting in the second quarter and increase in stages of around 15 percentage points, which they estimate could hit China’s exports by 6% and GDP by 1%. Citi analysts said that based on recent meetings with Chinese officials in several departments, their “key takeaway was that China is aiming at steady economic growth, which would hinge [on] external tariffs and domestic stimulus.” The analysts anticipate a short-term stock rally in March if the U.S. and China reach an agreement to gradually hike tariffs. “But this is unlikely to alter the deflationary outlook in China or resolve structural issues,” the Citi analysts said, noting they expect “high dividend yield bank stocks [will] become more attractive to yield-seeking onshore investors.” China on Friday reported GDP grew by 5% in 2024 , matching government targets. But when accounting for lower prices and other deflationary pressure, the economy expanded by just 4.2% in 2024, pointed out Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie. The ability of policymakers to turn around an almost two-year-long deflationary trend will depend on the effectiveness of fiscal policy and support for the real estate market. Chinese authorities have pledged to increase the fiscal deficit at an annual parliamentary meeting in March, when they’re also expected to reveal other stimulus measures. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.