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China’s property slump is far from bottoming. But Beijing is prioritizing tech growth

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A new residential complex under construction in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China on October 20, 2025.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese policymakers are unlikely to shore up the country’s struggling real estate sector, analysts told CNBC, even as the housing slump drags on economic growth.

The assessment comes as China’s top leaders, called the Central Committee, are due to wrap up a four-day meeting Thursday, which will outline priorities for the next five years.

In Beijing’s view, the property sector’s drag on growth has eased, while technological development is a more urgent priority in the current geopolitical landscape, said Ning Zhu, author of “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.” To him, that means Beijing is unlikely to enact significantly stronger real estate support.

After years of concern over property developers’ debt that led to Beijing’s crackdown, Chinese state media said earlier this month that “risks in key areas have been effectively prevented and mitigated,” according to a CNBC translation. The piece was part of a series of articles highlighting achievements over the past five years while highlighting Beijing’s push to promote opportunities in tech.

That underscores further divergence between Beijing’s view and that of most analysts.

“The government believes the property market is bottoming,” Zhu said. “I believe it is a gradual process and may take more time before reaching the bottom.”

China's Fourth Plenum expected to focus on tech as tensions with U.S. grow

Recent data underscores the divide between Beijing’s optimism and market reality. China’s Statistics Bureau on Monday said high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.6% in the first three quarters of the year compared to the same period in 2024, outpacing the 6.2% growth in overall industrial production.

However, real estate investment fell 13.9% in the first three quarters from a year earlier, extending the sector’s decline through September. The decline pushed fixed-asset investment into negative territory — the only such decline on record, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic.

That means that just over a year since Beijing called for a “halt” in the property sector’s decline, there are still few signs of a turnaround.

It’s “hard to say when” real estate will bottom, said Lulu Shi, a director at Fitch Ratings. “The overall population, demographics and the employment situation and housing market inventory, they are all worsening.”

China’s falling birth rate points to weaker housing demand in the future, while uncertainty about jobs and income growth weighs on homebuyer sentiment in the near term.

Falling home prices

The slide in property prices over roughly the last two years is also weighing on homebuyer sentiment, reversing decades of gains that once fueled heavy speculation in the property market.

The weighted average for new home prices in September fell 2.7% from the prior month on an annualized basis, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis of official data from China’s 70 largest cities published Monday. That was steeper than the 2.1% drop seen in August.

Prices of “secondary” homes, which have already been sold once, have plunged by a far steeper 5% to 20% over the past year, Goldman said, citing a mix of official and third-party figures.

Looking ahead, Beijing is unlikely to put much emphasis on property policy, whether in additional support or discouraging real estate speculation, said Bruce Pang, adjunct associate professor at CUHK Business School.

He noted that China’s multi-year plans, such as those for the next five years, tend to focus on new approaches for growth.

Easing measures introduced in August, such as looser restrictions on multiple property purchases in major cities, have done little to lift sentiment. The policy changes mostly applied to the city outskirts rather than the most attractive downtown areas.

Citing that weaker-than-expected policy support, S&P Global Ratings earlier this month forecast property sales to fall 8% this year, worse than earlier estimates. They expect another drop of at least 6% next year as a market bottom remains elusive.

Moody’s Ratings also predicts China home sales to decline by single digits over the next 12 to 18 months.

This forecast is based on fading demand from buyers who had anticipated policy easing, said Daniel Zhou, an assistant vice president and analyst at Moody’s Ratings. He said the property market should gradually stabilize over the longer term under existing policy measures.

Broader economic impact

The real estate slump continues to weigh heavily on China’s economy, even as the sector’s role has shrunk from more than a quarter of output. As property sales have roughly halved in just a few years, manufacturing and exports have helped offset the decline.

“China’s economy has remained under the 2-speed mode, with consumption/property as the weak track and exports/manufacturing as the strong track,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in a note. “The pattern will continue until policymakers could no longer rely on external demand to drive growth.”

Chinese exports have remained unexpectedly strong so far this year, with 8.3% growth in September from a year ago, despite a 27% plunge in shipments of goods to the U.S.

For real estate, “it is very hard to see a trend of growth,” Shi said. “We believe there will be more policies, but it’s not likely that one policy can change the entire situation.”

Eventually, once the decline in home prices eases, she expects more buyers to gradually return to the housing market.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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Private Credit Expansion: How Alternative Lending Platforms Are Reshaping Corporate Liquidity

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How Alternative Lending Platforms Are Reshaping Corporate Liquidity

Private credit has firmly established itself as a foundational pillar of global financial markets in 2026, transitioning from an alternative asset class into a dominant mechanism for middle-market corporate financing. Reports published in mid-July 2026 show that direct lending assets under management have expanded significantly, as corporate borrowers increasingly bypass traditional syndication desks in favor of customized private debt solutions. This structural migration has fundamentally altered corporate liquidity dynamics, providing middle-market enterprises with reliable access to tailored capital packages even during periods of regulatory bank tightening.

The primary driver of this continued growth is the structural flexibility inherent in private debt agreements. Unlike public bond markets or conservative commercial bank loans—which often carry rigid covenants and slow underwriting timelines—private credit funds offer speed of execution, flexible payment-in-kind structures, and customized debt-service frameworks. For companies undertaking strategic acquisitions, capital expenditures, or complex balance sheet recapitalizations, the ability to negotiate directly with a unified syndicate of private lenders provides significant certainty and confidentiality.

However, the expansion of private credit is attracting heightened regulatory attention and risk scrutiny. Financial regulatory bodies are closely evaluating the lack of secondary market price discovery and the potential concentration of illiquidity risks within non-bank financial institutions. Because private debt instruments are held to maturity and marked to model rather than marked to market, evaluating real-time enterprise valuations during economic shifts requires robust internal credit assessment standards. Analysts note that as loan portfolios mature, performance variations between disciplined lenders and aggressive underwriters will become increasingly apparent.

For corporate financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, private credit represents both a powerful strategic tool and a vital diversification strategy. Borrowers must weigh the higher nominal coupon rates of private debt against the tangible value of operational flexibility and execution certainty. Meanwhile, investors must maintain rigorous credit due diligence, prioritizing funds with proven restructuring capabilities and deep operational expertise in underwriting resilient middle-market businesses.

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Tokenized Real-World Assets: Institutional Ledger Adoption Achieves Scale in July 2026

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Institutional Ledger Adoption Achieves Scale in July 2026

The integration of blockchain technology with legacy financial markets has reached a decisive tipping point in July 2026, driven by the rapid scaling of Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization. Major global investment banks, custodial entities, and asset managers are actively shifting sovereign debt, commercial paper, and private fund shares onto permissioned distributed ledgers. Recent industry data confirms that the aggregate market capitalization of tokenized treasury products and private credit funds has surged past major milestones, illustrating that ledger-based settlement is no longer experimental, but core financial infrastructure.

The fundamental value proposition of asset tokenization rests on operational efficiency, continuous liquidity, and automated compliance execution. By embedding regulatory checks, investor accreditation limits, and automated coupon distributions directly into smart contract code, financial institutions eliminate vast amounts of manual back-office reconciliation. Furthermore, fractionalized ownership structures allow high-value asset classes—such as prime commercial real estate and private equity funds—to be split into accessible units, significantly expanding liquidity pools and enabling real-time collateral optimization.

A key catalyst behind this institutional momentum is the establishment of comprehensive regulatory clarity across major financial jurisdictions. The implementation of standardized digital asset frameworks in the United States and Europe has provided institutional compliance officers with the legal certainty required to deploy capital on-chain. As a result, premier custodian banks are now offering unified digital asset custody, seamlessly bridging traditional securities depositories with programmable ledger ecosystems.

Looking forward, the maturation of tokenized assets will continue to transform secondary market trading and treasury management. Corporate treasurers can now yield-optimize idle cash in real time by moving into tokenized money market instruments that settle instantaneously on a 24/7 basis. To remain competitive, financial leaders must ensure their institutional architectures are interoperable with modern digital ledger protocols, positioning their organizations at the forefront of modern capital market efficiency.

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