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China’s property slump is far from bottoming. But Beijing is prioritizing tech growth

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A new residential complex under construction in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China on October 20, 2025.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese policymakers are unlikely to shore up the country’s struggling real estate sector, analysts told CNBC, even as the housing slump drags on economic growth.

The assessment comes as China’s top leaders, called the Central Committee, are due to wrap up a four-day meeting Thursday, which will outline priorities for the next five years.

In Beijing’s view, the property sector’s drag on growth has eased, while technological development is a more urgent priority in the current geopolitical landscape, said Ning Zhu, author of “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.” To him, that means Beijing is unlikely to enact significantly stronger real estate support.

After years of concern over property developers’ debt that led to Beijing’s crackdown, Chinese state media said earlier this month that “risks in key areas have been effectively prevented and mitigated,” according to a CNBC translation. The piece was part of a series of articles highlighting achievements over the past five years while highlighting Beijing’s push to promote opportunities in tech.

That underscores further divergence between Beijing’s view and that of most analysts.

“The government believes the property market is bottoming,” Zhu said. “I believe it is a gradual process and may take more time before reaching the bottom.”

China's Fourth Plenum expected to focus on tech as tensions with U.S. grow

Recent data underscores the divide between Beijing’s optimism and market reality. China’s Statistics Bureau on Monday said high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.6% in the first three quarters of the year compared to the same period in 2024, outpacing the 6.2% growth in overall industrial production.

However, real estate investment fell 13.9% in the first three quarters from a year earlier, extending the sector’s decline through September. The decline pushed fixed-asset investment into negative territory — the only such decline on record, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic.

That means that just over a year since Beijing called for a “halt” in the property sector’s decline, there are still few signs of a turnaround.

It’s “hard to say when” real estate will bottom, said Lulu Shi, a director at Fitch Ratings. “The overall population, demographics and the employment situation and housing market inventory, they are all worsening.”

China’s falling birth rate points to weaker housing demand in the future, while uncertainty about jobs and income growth weighs on homebuyer sentiment in the near term.

Falling home prices

The slide in property prices over roughly the last two years is also weighing on homebuyer sentiment, reversing decades of gains that once fueled heavy speculation in the property market.

The weighted average for new home prices in September fell 2.7% from the prior month on an annualized basis, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis of official data from China’s 70 largest cities published Monday. That was steeper than the 2.1% drop seen in August.

Prices of “secondary” homes, which have already been sold once, have plunged by a far steeper 5% to 20% over the past year, Goldman said, citing a mix of official and third-party figures.

Looking ahead, Beijing is unlikely to put much emphasis on property policy, whether in additional support or discouraging real estate speculation, said Bruce Pang, adjunct associate professor at CUHK Business School.

He noted that China’s multi-year plans, such as those for the next five years, tend to focus on new approaches for growth.

Easing measures introduced in August, such as looser restrictions on multiple property purchases in major cities, have done little to lift sentiment. The policy changes mostly applied to the city outskirts rather than the most attractive downtown areas.

Citing that weaker-than-expected policy support, S&P Global Ratings earlier this month forecast property sales to fall 8% this year, worse than earlier estimates. They expect another drop of at least 6% next year as a market bottom remains elusive.

Moody’s Ratings also predicts China home sales to decline by single digits over the next 12 to 18 months.

This forecast is based on fading demand from buyers who had anticipated policy easing, said Daniel Zhou, an assistant vice president and analyst at Moody’s Ratings. He said the property market should gradually stabilize over the longer term under existing policy measures.

Broader economic impact

The real estate slump continues to weigh heavily on China’s economy, even as the sector’s role has shrunk from more than a quarter of output. As property sales have roughly halved in just a few years, manufacturing and exports have helped offset the decline.

“China’s economy has remained under the 2-speed mode, with consumption/property as the weak track and exports/manufacturing as the strong track,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in a note. “The pattern will continue until policymakers could no longer rely on external demand to drive growth.”

Chinese exports have remained unexpectedly strong so far this year, with 8.3% growth in September from a year ago, despite a 27% plunge in shipments of goods to the U.S.

For real estate, “it is very hard to see a trend of growth,” Shi said. “We believe there will be more policies, but it’s not likely that one policy can change the entire situation.”

Eventually, once the decline in home prices eases, she expects more buyers to gradually return to the housing market.

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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