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Chinese consumer companies signal spending is picking up again

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Shoppers line up to shop at a Laopu Gold outlet in Deji Plaza in Nanjing, China, on Feb. 21, 2025.

Fang Dongxu | Feature China | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese companies’ latest earnings reports point to an improvement in consumer spending, though it’s not necessarily back to pre-pandemic levels.

E-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com both said in the last several weeks that their China retail business saw faster year-on-year revenue growth in the last three months of 2024 than in 2023.

“We think consumption growth is in a period of healthy recovery, but not [yet reaching] the high previously,” Charlie Chen, managing director and head of Asia research at China Renaissance Securities, said Wednesday in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

For consumer spending to return to pre-pandemic growth, Chinese companies’ revenue growth likely needs to recover by double digits and consumer confidence needs to improve, Chen said. He noted that the recent real estate slump has weighed on consumers’ sense of affluence.

Chinese policymakers have emphasized that boosting consumption is their priority this year. So far, authorities have expanded a trade-in subsidy program to include smartphones, on top of home appliances and electric cars. In September, Beijing also signaled a shift in real estate policy by calling for a halt in the market decline.

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JD.com has benefitted directly from the trade-in program, and reported 15.8% year-on-year growth in sales for electronics and home appliances in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, full-year segment revenue of 4.9% was only the fastest growth since 2021, when sales surged by nearly 23%.

The government has introduced consumption-stimulating policies since the second half of last year, and they have “driven a steady recovery in consumer confidence,” Sandy Xu, chief executive officer and executive director of JD.com, said in an earnings call this month, according to a FactSet transcript.

“In short-term we believe there are still challenges on the macro side, but in the long term, we remain very optimistic about consumer sentiment,” she said.

Niche markets stand out

Tencent, which operates mobile payments and social media app WeChat, reported a 3% growth in fintech and businesses services to 56.1 billion yuan ($7.7 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2024, noting that “commercial payment services revenue was broadly stable year-on-year.” That compares with 39% segment growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, which Tencent had attributed to “greater revenue contributions from commercial payment.”

Certain companies have found niche areas where Chinese consumers are spending, however.

In late February, Beijing-based Laopu Gold, which makes and sells gold jewelry with Chinese designs, forecast that its net profit last year surged by at least 236% in 2024 to 1.4 billion yuan. The company is set to release full results for 2024 on Tuesday.

Toy company Pop Mart also propelled ahead, reporting on Wednesday that revenue in mainland China more than doubled last year to 2.64 billion yuan.

Niu Technologies reported that e-scooter sales in China surged by more than 80% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 646.2 million yuan. Full-year segment sales rose by 27.5%. The company attributed growth to its focus on premium models and store expansion.

In contrast, Niu had said the relatively slow recovery in China’s economic growth in 2023 had resulted in a decline in sales that year.

China’s official economic data for the start of the year showed modest improvement in growth.

Retail sales growth of 4% year over year in January and February was the highest increase in the past 12 months on a seasonally adjusted basis, Chen said. Since that rise was on a high base of 5.5% growth in the first two months of 2024, he expects retail sales growth this year will be higher than 4%.

Retail sales rose by a muted 3.5% in 2024. For 2015 to 2019, retail sales had grown by an average of 9.7% each year.

Chen said he expects government policy to support more consumer discretionary or services spending since the potential for recovery is greater there than in daily necessities.

Chinese travel booking site Trip.com said in late February its net revenue for 2024 rose by 20% to 53.3 billion yuan. That was faster than a 15% increase in 2019 to 35.7 billion yuan in net revenue.

While the company did not detail its views on the domestic market, it emphasized that international travel had recovered to more than 120% of 2019 levels. CEO Jane Sun also highlighted in an earnings call that the “silver generation,” or travelers over the age of 50, is a target demographic as the market segment will likely exceed 1 trillion yuan in value in coming years.

Intense competition

China, the world’s second-largest consumer market, remains intensely competitive especially as consumer demand has been soft. Electric car companies have slashed prices, while retailers have struggled to compete with heavy online discounts.

Home accessories retail chain Miniso reported its mainland China revenue grew by 10.9% last year to 1.28 billion yuan, although growth moderated slightly in the December quarter at 6.5%. The company does not plan to accelerate its pace of store openings, and said online sales in China are increasingly driving growth.

Major beverage chains in China from milk tea to coffee also saw lower same-store sales in the latter part of 2024.

Overall industry slowdown and competitors launching low-priced products contributed to a 0.7% drop in same-store sales in the first nine months of 2024, bubble tea chain Guming said in its Hong Kong initial public offering prospectus released Feb. 4.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, average monthly sales per Chagee milk tea store in China fell by 20.6% from a year ago, after modest growth in the prior quarter, according to CNBC calculations of figures disclosed this week in a prospectus for a U.S. IPO. Overseas sales surged by 29.2% year on year in the fourth quarter.

Chinese bubble tea chain Mixue said average sales per store fell to 1.08 million yuan in the first three months of 2024, down from 1.13 million yuan a year earlier, according to the latest figures available.

Even upstart Chinese coffee chain Luckin saw a decline of 3.4% in same-store sales for self-operated stores in the quarter ended Dec. 31 from the year-ago period. Starbucks marked a 6% decline in comparable store sales during that time.

— CNBC’s Ying Shan Lee contributed to this report.

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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