Connect with us

Economics

Chocolate set to get more expensive — but 2026 outlook looks sweeter

Published

on

Dubai pistachio kunafa chocolate bars are displayed in Maple, Ontario, Canada, on May 11, 2025.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Chocolate lovers face another run of price rises as a lag impact from the cocoa market hits retailers — but better news may be in store by next Easter.

Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply.

That trend has combined with broader retail price inflation around the world which is pushing up costs for consumers and denting demand for sweet treats in the process. A 2024 survey by U.K. consumer group Which? found chocolate products were the category with the highest average annual inflation rate in grocery stores last year, at 11%. In the U.S., the price of popular products such as Hershey’s Kisses similarly jumped around 12% year-on-year.

Adalbert Lechner, head of Swiss giant Lindt & Sprüngli, told CNBC in April he doesn’t think cocoa prices “will ever come down to the levels where they have been before.”

Cocoa futures have remained choppy but overall eased this year, falling from $8,177 per metric ton at the start of January to around $7,855 in August. That compares with $2,374 three years ago.

And the recent decline won’t show up in chocolate prices in the near-term, according to Tracey Allen, agricultural commodities strategist at J.P. Morgan.

“We’ve got a bit of a hangover happening here,” Allen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

Chocolatiers are still dealing with the heightened cocoa prices from the fourth quarter of 2024 when they saw record highs, she said.

“These heightened prices have really had this flow-on, lagged impact for the industry as a whole,” she said, with a higher cost of doing business being passed through to the consumer. “There is this ongoing deficit in the market, big depletion of availability of cocoa beans and availability of products. So higher prices for longer here, I’m afraid,” she continued.

However, the outlook may be slightly brighter in time for the busy Easter season, she noted.

Industrial demand from manufacturers is softening just as supply is improving, with production ramping up, better weather conditions and new plantings in Ecuador and Brazil reaching maturity, according to J.P. Morgan analysis, though cocoa prices are seen remaining structurally higher for longer at $6,000 per metric ton.

JP Morgan: Deficiency in cocoa supply means prices will stay higher for longer

Tariff hit

Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC that longstanding productivity challenges such as diseases and years of underinvestment in Ivory Coast and Ghana – the world’s two largest cocoa producers – mean that global supply will remain tight, even if weather conditions in West Africa improve over the coming months.

“That will keep prices elevated at historically high levels. Historically high cocoa prices could support chocolate prices,” he said.

He also noted other factors that could push up costs on both sides of the Atlantic.

In the U.K., businesses face higher costs from hikes to the minimum wage and employee contributions, which Hussain said appeared to be feeding into the price of foodstuffs including chocolate.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. he said the impact of tariffs could add upward pressure to the price of chocolate over the coming months.

“The upshot is that consumers are likely to face high chocolate prices for some time,” he said.

Premium collection of dark, milk and white chocolates.

Chocolate, skincare and timepieces: What 39% tariffs on Swiss goods mean for U.S. consumers

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this story.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

Published

on

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

Continue Reading

Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

Published

on

Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

Continue Reading

Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

Published

on

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

Continue Reading

Trending