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Contentious July jobs report confirms the U.S. economy is slowing sharply

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Caution tape hangs near the steps of Federal Hall across from the New York Stock Exchange in New York.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Though it may have been controversial, the July jobs report helped confirm the notion that the U.S. economic engine is sputtering.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 73,000 for the month, below even the muted expectations. Heavy downward revisions to the May and June count took the three-month average job gains down to just 35,000, or less than one-third the pace for the same period a year ago.

Traditionally a lagging indicator when it comes to recessions, the weakness in job growth points to an economy that may be slowing even more than some of the traditional metrics are showing.

“We are in a broad economic slowdown. Whether it translates to a recession or not is the question that I’m asking now,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “The labor market is key, and it’s hard to gauge what’s going to happen.”

Wilmington has a 50% chance the U.S. slides into recession. Tilley cites concerns over the longer-term hit from tariffs that could depress consumer spending, which drove 68% of all economic activity in the first quarter, as well as business investment and hiring.

In fact, he said pressure from tariffs is one of the reasons that the pass-through from President Donald Trump’s levies hasn’t hit inflation as hard as many economists expected.

“If consumers are shouldering the burden, they’re spending more for imports and they will cut back on recreational spending, airlines, Disney trips, fun parks, hotels, all of that,” he said. “We’ve seen that in the data, and that’s why there’s not inflationary impact.”

Reasons for optimism

To be sure, the growth picture is far from dire at this point.

Gross domestic product increased at a 3% annualized pace in the second quarter, providing on its face a picture of a vibrant economy.

However, when looked at for the first half, GDP averaged only about 1.2% growth, with consumer spending barely up 1%. The primary reason for the big jump in Q2 was a reversal in the import surge during the first quarter as companies sought to get ahead of tariffs. In the first quarter, growth fell 0.5% amid the swell in imports, which subtract from the GDP calculation.

If the July unemployment report portends what’s to come, the picture is bound to get gloomier.

“The most likely outcome is still weaker economic growth in the second half of 2025 and early 2026 compared to 2024 and the first half of this year, but no recession,” Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, wrote following the jobs release Friday.

“But given the revised read on the labor market, recession risks are elevated, and higher tariffs make that risk even higher,” he added. “It is easy to see how very weak job growth and higher tariffs could cause consumers to cut back on their spending and businesses to cut back on their investment, pushing the economy into a recession.”

Goldman Sachs forecasts growth to be just 1% in the final two quarters due in part to slower consumer spending and “a sharp slowdown in real income growth that reflects weaker job growth, higher tariff-driven inflation, and reductions in transfer payments in [the fourth quarter] that were included in the recent fiscal bill.”

“Friday’s payrolls report brings payroll growth closer in line with big data indicators of job gains and the broader growth dataset, both of which have slowed significantly in recent months. Taken together, the economic data confirm our view that the US economy is growing at a below-potential pace,” the firm said in a note over the weekend.

NEC Director Kevin Hassett: The jobs data have become very unreliable

Despite the cloudy outlook, White House officials insist the economy is sound and will only get better once President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act kicks in.

Trump himself pushed back hard against the July jobs report, firing Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday as he called the numbers “FAKED” and “RIGGED” in a Truth Social post.

However, White House economist Kevin Hassett on Monday told CNBC the revisions were concerning even as he also touted broader economic strength.

“There are a lot of really good reasons to be super optimistic about second half of the year. But absolutely that jobs number, if the revision turns out to be true, does suggest that there’s less momentum than we thought,” said Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council who is thought to be a leading contender for a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Looking to the Fed

Trump administration officials have been calling on the Fed to cut its benchmark funds level that feeds into multiple other consumer interest rates. The Fed last week held the rate steady, and several officials made public comments since the report saying they still think the labor market is strong.

However, further signs of economic weakness could change that.

Housing data has been poor lately, reflecting a declining level of buyers along with rising prices and stubbornly high mortgage rates.

“What are we doing with a national average 30-year mortgage rate still close to 7% in an economy growing at 1%?” veteran economist and strategist Jim Paulsen wrote in a Substack post. “There is nothing ‘healthy or solid’ about these [economic] numbers, they are way below the 2% stall speed, and shout for help.”

Other economists echoed that sentiment.

“To me, today’s jobs report is what entering a recession looks like,” Josh Bivens, the chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, wrote after the Friday report.

“The economy is on the precipice of recession. That’s the clear takeaway from last week’s economic data dump,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, posted Sunday on X.

Monday bought more bad news, with factory orders falling 4.8%, actually a touch less than the Dow Jones estimate though the worst reading since January 2024. Also, the Conference Board’s employment trends index declined in July, hitting its lowest since October 2024.

Markets have been resilient

Amid the worrying economic signs, stocks have fallen though not dramatically. Wall Street rallied Monday, with hopes rising that the U.S. and European Union will be able to reach a long-term tariff agreement.

Trading has been volatile lately, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 1.7% over the past month.

“This confirmed a lot of our suspicions. Frankly, we were waiting for the other shoe to drop, and now we’re starting to see a few shoes drop,” George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank, said of the jobs numbers.

Trading lately has seen “a lot of complacency” as investors largely ignored the political storms in Washington and took a best-case-scenario outlook toward the economy, Mateyo added.

“A lot of people were anticipating the fact that the good times would keep rolling, and indeed they probably will,” he added. “We still don’t think the base case is that a recession is going to manifest itself. But it’s going to be a pretty big slowdown, given the fact that uncertainty is really high.”

Markets also have vacillated in terms of what they see the Fed doing.

Just prior to the jobs report, traders were assigning low odds to a rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting, then swung back to pricing in Monday a nearly 90% probability, according to the CME Group. However, there are multiple key data releases until then, and Fed rhetoric this far has been tepid regarding easing.

Mateyo sees the economic and policy uncertainty adding up to a recipe for caution.

“We’ve been cautioning clients to look at their overall risk exposures and perhaps rebalance away from some of the risky sectors of the market,” he said.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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