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CPI inflation May 2025:

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U.S. inflation rises 0.1% in May from prior month, less than expected

Consumer prices rose less than expected in May as President Donald Trump’s tariffs had yet to show significant impact on inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services across the sprawling U.S. economy, increased 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.2% and 2.4%.

Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in respectively at 0.1% and 2.8%, compared to forecasts for 0.3% and 2.9%. Federal Reserve officials consider core a better measure of long-term trends, with several expressing concerns recently over the impact that tariffs would have on inflation.

The all-items annual rate marked a 0.1 percentage point step up from April while core was the same.

Continued weakness in energy prices helped offset some of the increases, and a handful of other key items expected to show tariff-related jumps, vehicle and apparel prices in particular, actually posted declines.

Energy slipped 1% on the month, while new and used vehicle prices posted respective declines of 0.3% and 0.5%. Within energy, gasoline posted a 2.6% drop that took the year-over-year decrease to 12%.

Food increased 0.3% as did shelter, which the BLS said was the “primary factor” in the otherwise modest CPI increase. Egg prices fell 2.7% but were still up 41.5% from a year ago. Apparel posted a 0.4% drop.

Though shelter prices rose on the month, the 3.9% annual increase is the lowest rate since late-2021.

With the modest inflation moves, real average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and were up 1.4% from a year ago.

“Today’s below forecast inflation print is reassuring – but only to an extent,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “Tariff-driven price increases may not feed through to the CPI data for a few more months yet, so it is far too premature to assume that the price shock will not materialize.”

Stock market futures turned positive after the report while Treasury yields were lower.

Echoing Trump, Vice President JD Van, in a post on X, called on the Fed to cut interest rates as inflation pressures have failed to materialize.

“The president has been saying this for a while, but it’s even more clear: the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice,” Vance wrote.

Trade tensions persist

The BLS report comes with the Trump administration continuing in efforts to negotiate trade deals. In his April 2 “liberation day” announcement that rocked financial markets, Trump slapped 10% universal duties on U.S. imports and a host of other so-called reciprocal tariffs on countries he said have been using unfair trading practices.

Most recently, White House officials have met with Chinese leaders in an effort to defuse a blistering trade war between the two nations. Leaders from both countries have said they are near an agreement on rare-earth materials, such as resources needed for automotive batteries, as well as technology-related items.

Other nations hit with reciprocal duties have until early July to strike a deal, according to an announcement Trump made a week after the initial move.

White House officials insist that tariffs will not cause runaway inflation, with the expectation that foreign producers would absorb much of the costs themselves. Many economists, though, believe that the broad-based nature of the duties could raise prices in a more pronounced fashion, with greater impacts likely to show up through the summer as inventories amassed ahead of the tariff implementation draw down.

The benign May inflation readings suggest “the tariffs aren’t having a large immediate impact because companies have been using existing inventories or slowly adjusting prices due to uncertain demand,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global CIO of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “While we might see some price increases on goods later, service prices are expected to remain stable, suggesting any rise in inflation is likely to be temporary.”

Market pricing indicates the Fed is unlikely to consider further interest rate cuts until at least September as policymakers evaluate the impact that tariffs expert on inflation. Trump has been urging the Fed to lower rates amid the easing inflation readings and signs of a slowdown in the labor market.

Changes in data collection

Evaluating the inflation numbers has been complicated by other Trump initiatives.

In an effort to pare down the federal workforce, the administration has instituted a hiring freeze that has coincided with the BLS restricting its data collection and expanding a process called imputation, in which it uses models to fill in incomplete data. For instance, the BLS said last week that as of April it has been “reducing sample in areas across the country” and suspended collection altogether in Lincoln, Neb.; Provo, Utah; and Buffalo, N.Y.

“The use of expanded imputation is likely to continue, given ongoing staffing shortages at the BLS. While it is difficult to conclude any kind of directional effect, smaller sample sizes may be liable to greater volatility,” BNP Paribas analysts said in a note.

However, the BLS said the moves to suspend collections will have “minimal impact” on overall data collection, though they could impact subindexes.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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