BEIJING — DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence breakthrough is stirring up China’s venture capital world after three straight years of decline.
As DeepSeek released its OpenAI rival in late January, AI drug discovery company Insilico Medicine was finalizing a $110 million series E financing round led by Hong Kong-based Value Partners, the startup’s CEO and founder Alex Zhavoronkov told CNBC in an exclusive interview. The deal closed last month.
But so many Chinese funds wanted to participate at the last minute — “like an avalanche” — that Insilico is planning a series “E2” raise, Zhavoronkov said. “We have never seen this level of interest before.”
Qiming Ventures-backed Insilico uses AI from DeepSeek and other companies to create models for developing drugs. Ten of the startup’s drugs have already received approval for clinical tests, according to Insilico, which lists research labs in China, the U.S. and the Middle East.
Zhavoronkov added that during his U.S. travels in the last few weeks, many U.S. and other global investors have asked him about ways to invest in Chinese AI companies.
“It looks like the DeepSeek moment, it created a lot of interest from global investors to invest in China,” he said Monday. “I think the funding is going to come back.”
Regulatory uncertainty in both China and the U.S., especially around IPOs, and slow economic growth have contributed to a sharp drop in Chinese venture capital activity in recent years. VC investment into China-based companies has fallen for the last three years, reaching just $48.86 billion in 2024, the lowest on record going back to at least 2016, according to Pitchbook data.
Now, as regulatory clarity emerges, sentiment is changing — and encouraging investors to take a different approach to the past, when internet-based startups such as Alibaba emerged.
“People are rushing just to find the next DeepSeek,” said Annabelle Yu Long, founding and managing partner of BAI Capital in Beijing. She also sits on the board of Coach parent Tapestry.
“Everybody is making investments, but I am asking my team to hold on new deals, because we see our core portfolio [of around 6 companies] are gaining very, very meaningful AI traction,” she said, noting that her firm is opting to increase its investments in existing holdings in coming months.
Part of her call stems from her view that Chinese funds have far less capital than U.S. ones to invest in AI, requiring a targeted approach. Instead of looking at new startups, Long said she expects entrepreneurs who are already using AI well to succeed in the near future.
For example, BAI Capital-backed Black Lake, which sells manufacturing management systems, has become profitable this quarter because AI has lowered service costs, Long said. Another of her investments, a healthcare company called Lejian, has become more profitable with the help of AI, and Goldman Sachs is preparing its IPO, she added.
Long said she plans to list nine portfolio companies this year, mostly in Hong Kong, and has received many calls from international investors about China’s economy and Chinese entrepreneurship beyond AI. “I definitely see a return of confidence.”
Other recent investment rounds also reflect how capital is piling into existing players. Insilico’s Zhavoronkov said some Chinese investors had previously lost nearly all their money on AI drug startups, and now recognize that only a few, likely more established, players will make it.
This month, AI model company Zhipu AI raised the equivalent of around $137.68 million from Alibaba Cloud and a Hangzhou city-backed fund, according to PitchBook’s records of 12 AI deals for the first 10 days of March. The data also showed robotics company LimX Dynamics raised an undisclosed amount from Alibaba Group and other investors.
A holiday turning point
China’s Lunar New Year in late January marked a turning point for AI investment. DeepSeek’s R1 model came out just before the holiday, while state media’s widely broadcast Spring Festival gala showcased dancing robots from Unitree.
“I think Unitree and DeepSeek encourage a lot of foreign investors to try to seek opportunities here,” said Hongye Wang, executive director at Shenzhen-based Forebright Capital, which has funds denominated in the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan. He noted that some Middle East funds have recently been looking for opportunities in Chinese AI companies.
“I believe confidence [is] coming back,” he said of domestic VCs, noting many were traveling again for meetings.
Wang said his firm has invested in a company that makes cellphone chargers and AI glasses, and is looking for opportunities in humanoid robots, along with companies that provide solutions for computing reasoning. Forebright, which Wang says has several billion U.S. dollars in assets under management, plans to make at least five to six investments this year, he said.
Policy support
Importantly for a market that’s been hit by regulatory crackdowns, Beijing is signaling clear support.
“The fact that President Xi [Jinping in February] shook the hand of DeepSeek’s founder and pretty much gave the green light for generative AI to be used at scale, now you should expect a massive number of DeepSeek-like clones … that will be popping out and just disclosing what they have been doing over the past three years,” Zhavoronkov said.
Premier Li Qiang’s work report last week said China would work to “accelerate the development of venture capital investment and the growth of patient capital,” referring to long-term investment.
A day after Li presented that plan, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters the central government is planning a fund that’s expected to mobilize 1 trillion yuan ($137.7 billion) for tech investment. Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng announced at the same press conference that a loan program for tech innovation would nearly double to as much as 1 trillion yuan.
“From early stage investment to exit, policy is more complete and clearer,” Liu Rui, vice president of China Renaissance Capital, said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.
He expects more resources to go toward AI applications this year, given the faster-than-expected decline in model operating costs and China’s large consumer base.
Tensions with the U.S. — ranging from tariffs to tech restrictions — remain a hurdle for international investors contemplating China AI opportunities, however.
Unlike U.S.-based companies that can access the global market, China-based ones will also likely find it harder to expand abroad given the sensitivities around AI and data, said Xuhui Shao, Palo Alto-based managing partner at Foothill Ventures. His firm focuses on the U.S. and doesn’t invest in China.
Even with the potential of China’s large market, foreign investors need to understand the risks of investing in China, such as restrictions on capital flow, Shao said. But he pointed out that “innovative breakthroughs” such as DeepSeek shouldn’t be a surprise given that China has many college-educated engineers and data scientists, who can represent half of the AI researchers at an industry conference.
“I think,” he said, “competition always pushes the whole sector [to move] forward and technology would not be contained by borders.”
A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.
What Happened This Week
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.
Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.
Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging
Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.
This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.
The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”
Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve which he described as having “the larger sandbox” to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.
Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.
What Comes Next
Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.
For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.
The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.
Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.
Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.
Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.
These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.
Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.
Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.
The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.
Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.
In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.
Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.
Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.
Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.
Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.