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Economists ‘really had it wrong’ about recession: market strategist

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David Zervos, Jefferies

Scott Mlyn | CNBC

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter point at the conclusion of its two-day meeting next week.

“Two years ago … three out of four economists were saying we’re going into a recession,” David Zervos, chief market strategist for Jefferies LLC, said during CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on Tuesday. “They’ve really had it wrong.”

The economy is still growing and inflation has come down, he said.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation stood at 2.3% in October, or 2.8% when excluding food and energy prices, according to the latest reading. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter is on track to post a 3.3% annualized growth rate for gross domestic product, the Atlanta Fed found.

“I think the market is spending way too much time focused on the inflationary consequences of either immigration or trade policies,” Zervos said.

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Here’s a look at more stories on how to manage, grow and protect your money for the years ahead.

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell praised the U.S. economy and said it provided cushion for policymakers to move slowly as they recalibrate policy.

By most indicators, 2025 is going to continue in a positive direction, said Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital Partners during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit.

“Economic growth is going to be healthy next year,” Doran said. “The prognosis is good.”

Meanwhile, there is still the issue of President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal policy when he begins his second term.

On one hand, “we’ve got a lot of deregulation coming,” Zervos said, which he called a “huge disinflationary tailwind.”  

“Take the tape, rewind it, put it back to 2019 and let’s go from there,” Zervos said.

In part because of such policies, during the last Trump administration “we saw very little inflation,” he said. “We never really bounced out of that 2% range … so I am really optimistic on the inflation side.”

However, questions remain on Trump’s plans to issue punitive tariffs and whether that could stoke inflation once again. Last month, Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said in a note that the proposed tariffs would boost consumer prices by nearly 1%.

“It’s still a big wildcard that we have to see,” Doran said. “It would be inflationary ultimately, but it would hurt the lowest income consumer who is already hurting.”

If inflation does creep up as a result, that may delay more rate cuts after December’s meeting she added. Other experts also expect the Fed to slow down its pace of rate cuts in 2025.

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Personal Finance

Maximizing Returns in High Rate Climate and market uncertainty

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Maximizing Returns in High-Rate Climate

In the macroeconomic environment of late July 2026, personal cash management requires an active, structured approach to wealth preservation. With central bank benchmark rates remaining elevated to ensure long-term disinflation, conservative yield-bearing vehicles—such as short-term U.S. Treasury bills, money market funds, and high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs)—continue to offer reliable nominal returns between 4% and 5%. For individual investors, maximizing net returns requires moving beyond passive checking accounts and executing a disciplined cash laddering strategy.

Leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional bank deposits creates an invisible drag on personal net worth due to ongoing inflation. By implementing a tiered liquidity framework, individuals can split emergency cash reserves and short-term capital allocations across rolling maturities. Allocating cash into 4-week, 8-week, and 13-week Treasury bills creates a continuous cycle of maturing liquidity, allowing investors to continuously reinvest capital at prevailing market yields while maintaining immediate access to emergency funds.

Tax efficiency represents a critical dimension of high-yield cash optimization. For high-earning individuals residing in states with substantial local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury instruments often deliver superior net post-tax yields compared to standard commercial bank HYSAs. Because interest earned on federal Treasury bills is strictly exempt from state and local taxation, investors can retain a larger portion of their compounding interest gains without taking on additional credit or market risk.

Ultimately, personal wealth accumulation in mid-2026 relies on intentional capital deployment. Cash should be managed as a productive asset class that generates consistent, risk-free returns. Regularly auditing account yield terms, automating recurring transfers, and leveraging tax-advantaged fixed-income instruments ensures that personal liquidity remains fully optimized against macroeconomic fluctuations.

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Personal Finance

Algorithmic Wealth Management: Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

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Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

The personal finance industry in July 2026 is experiencing a technological evolution, driven by the wide deployment of next-generation algorithmic wealth management tools. Modern digital financial platforms have expanded far beyond basic automated index investing; today’s robo-advisors utilize real-time tax-loss harvesting, dynamic portfolio rebalancing, and hyper-personalized spending analysis to optimize retail investor outcomes. However, as these digital solutions become ubiquitous, investors face the crucial challenge of balancing automated execution with human strategic judgment.

The core advantage of automated financial planning platforms lies in their ability to remove emotional bias from investment execution. During periods of market volatility or localized sector realignments, automated algorithms systematically rebalance portfolios back to target asset allocations without falling victim to panic selling or speculative enthusiasm. Furthermore, integrated cash-flow monitoring algorithms analyze individual spending patterns in real time, automatically sweeping surplus income into designated retirement or debt-liquidation accounts to accelerate net worth accumulation.

Despite these operational advantages, algorithmic tools have inherent structural limitations when addressing complex, highly personalized financial life events. Decisions involving multi-generational estate planning, highly complex tax strategies, small business exits, or nuanced real estate transactions require contextual human judgment that software models cannot replicate. Relying solely on automated models without periodic human professional review can result in misaligned risk profiles or overlooked tax liabilities during major life transitions.

The optimal approach for personal financial planning in late 2026 is a hybrid advisory model. Individuals should utilize automated platforms for routine asset allocation, continuous tax optimization, and low-cost passive index tracking, while engaging qualified human financial advisors for periodic strategic planning, estate structuring, and qualitative risk evaluations. This dual approach ensures maximum cost efficiency and disciplined execution while retaining essential strategic guidance.

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Personal Finance

High-Yield Optimization: Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

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Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

In the financial environment of mid-2026, personal cash management has re-emerged as a vital component of holistic wealth building. With central bank policy rates holding firm to maintain long-term price stability, yield-bearing instruments such as money market funds, high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs), and short-term Treasury bills continue to offer compounding returns around 4% to 5%. For individual investors, effectively structuring cash reserves requires shifting away from passive bank deposits toward active yield optimization.

A frequent pitfall in personal asset management is leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional checking or low-yield savings accounts, where real returns are continuously eroded by baseline inflation. By implementing a disciplined ‘cash ladder’ strategy—allocating liquid funds across tiered maturities using ultra-short Treasury instruments and FDIC-insured high-yield accounts—individuals can secure maximal yields while retaining immediate liquidity for emergency expenses or tactical investment opportunities.

Simultaneously, investors must evaluate the tax efficiency of their cash holdings based on their tax bracket and geographic location. For high earners situated in states with high local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury bills often yield a higher net post-tax return than standard high-yield savings accounts, as Treasury interest is strictly exempt from state and local taxation. Understanding these nuanced tax distinctions allows individuals to capture significant incremental gains without taking on additional market risk.

Ultimately, personal financial health in late 2026 hinges on intentional liquidity management. Cash reserves should not be viewed merely as static emergency funds, but as a dynamic asset class that contributes positively to net worth growth. Regularly auditing yield terms, automating cash transfers, and optimizing for post-tax efficiency ensures that personal capital remains fully productive across all economic conditions.

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