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Election lawsuits are flooding America’s courts

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AMID TEETERING uncertainty over who will win next week’s presidential election, little suspense looms about one thing: if Donald Trump loses, he will not concede to Kamala Harris. Instead, as he has been doing throughout his campaign, Mr Trump will repeat false claims of fraud from the 2020 election and apply them to 2024 with a fresh emphasis on a supposed scourge of non-citizen voting. And he will take those claims to court. Mr Trump’s team and supporters filed more than five dozen post-election lawsuits in 2020, resulting in one inconsequential win and 64 losses. Might he have a better shot at litigating a loss this time around?

Probably not. The courts are already busy considering hundreds of legal claims—regarding voter identification, registered-voter rolls and early voting, among other issues—from Republicans and Democrats alike. Few significant cases are going Mr Trump’s way. The chances of a lawsuit after November 5th turning an electoral loss into a win are low. But Mr Trump’s legal strategy could cultivate a destabilising post-election landscape in America for the second time in two cycles.

One minor win for Republicans came in a decision barring University of North Carolina students from using digital college IDs to vote. A second involves late-arriving ballots. In a stunning decision on October 25th, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals sided with the Republican National Committee in a challenge to Mississippi’s law permitting ballots postmarked by election day to arrive up to five business days later—a practice used in some 17 states and the District of Columbia. A three-judge panel said this arrangement, despite being widespread and long-standing, violates the principle of a uniform “election day” in federal law. For technical reasons, the ruling will probably not amount to much for the 2024 election. But it could inspire a national reckoning in the lead-up to 2026.

Otherwise, pre-election legal bouts are mainly being won by the Democrats. In an apparent plan to stack the deck in a battleground state, three pro-Trump Republican members of Georgia’s board of elections instituted eleventh-hour changes to vote-counting and certification rules in August. On October 16th a state judge declared those changes “unlawful and void” and a higher court, on October 22nd, refused to take up an appeal before the election. This ensures that local officials in Georgia will not be empowered to “find” votes for losing candidates, as Mr Trump infamously requested of the secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, during a phone call on January 2nd 2021.

Most attempts to remove voters from the rolls have faltered, too: one such lawsuit in Nevada was dismissed on October 18th while another from the Republican National Committee accusing Michigan of poorly managing its rolls went nowhere in a district-court ruling four days later. On October 28th, a similar lawsuit fizzled in Illinois.

But another effort to cull voter lists has survived a trip to the Supreme Court. On October 30th the justices ruled 6-3 (with all three Democratic appointees in dissent) that Virginia can move ahead with its purge of 1,600 voters who are, purportedly, non-citizens. On October 25th a federal judge had sided with the Biden administration, finding the purge to violate the National Voter Registration Act. This law, passed in 1993, requires a 90-day quiet period during which states may not “systematically” remove ineligible voters from the rolls due to the risk that eligible voters’ registrations could be mistakenly cancelled. On October 27th the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals refused a request from Virginia’s governor, Glenn Youngkin, to keep the purge in place. But in an unexplained order three days later the Supreme Court sided with Mr Youngkin. The ruling is not likely to shift outcomes in Virginia’s races but could portend similar decisions—potentially, again, along party lines—if more voter purges reach the Supreme Court.

A case involving the all-important battleground state of Pennsylvania also arrived at the Supreme Court this week. Republican National Committee v Genser asks whether voters who mistakenly invalidate their ballots by posting them without the required “secrecy envelope” can vote at their polling place instead. A 4-3 majority of the Pennsylvania supreme court decided that such voters enjoy this opportunity under state law. But in its brief to the Supreme Court, the RNC is relying on the opinion of a dissenting Pennsylvania judge that the majority “exceeded the bounds of statutory interpretation” and “supplanted the power vested in our General Assembly to regulate elections”.

Genser seeks to exploit a small opening in Moore v Harper, a Supreme Court decision from 2023. Moore deflated but did not entirely discard the “independent state legislature theory”, the idea that nobody, including judges, can override a state legislature’s election rules.

Could such cases affect the outcome of the election? The number of votes at stake would make a difference only in the event of a near tie in a battleground state along with a close split in the electoral college. Rick Hasen, an election-law expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, says that if the Supreme Court were to adjudicate a razor-thin margin in a decisive state—as it did in Bush v Gore in 2000—”motivated reasoning can take over and partisanship may matter”. But otherwise, he reckons, “it is hard to see Mr Trump litigating his way from an election loser to an election winner”.

A separate concern centres on Trump loyalists on county election boards who may refuse to certify vote totals. At least seventeen local officials in swing states demonstrated this intransigence in 2020, delaying but not upending the counting. More followed in 2022. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a watchdog, has counted 35 established obstructors currently on election boards across the country.  But Wendy Weiser of the Brennan Centre, a think-tank, says courts have stepped in quickly and decisively to enforce these officials’ purely ministerial obligations. An official’s role is like that of a principal at graduation, Ms Weiser explains: their job is to “hand out the diplomas”, not investigate “whether a student really deserved an A on the calculus exam”. In sum, Ms Weiser says, “it will be theatre”, but with the clarity of state law and the speed of state courts, holdouts pose no “threat to the finality of the election”.

For all the weaknesses of Mr Trump’s lawsuits, the volume of litigation may have an aim other than success in court. The litigation fuels Mr Trump’s persistent efforts to discredit the process, to accuse Democrats of cheating and to raise fears that illegal immigrants are corrupting the election. Courts may remain unpersuaded by claims that are unsupported by evidence. But Mr Trump’s flock, not judges, could be their ultimate audience.  

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Economics

Analysts react to latest U.S. levies

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Charts that show the “reciprocal tariffs” the U.S. is charging other countries are on display at the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on April 2, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Alex Wong | Getty Images

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday laid out the “reciprocal tariff” rates that more than 180 countries and territories will face under his sweeping new trade policy.

The announcement sent stocks tumbling and prompted investors to seek refuge in assets perceived to be safe.

Analysts generally had a pessimistic take on the announcement, with some even predicting an increased risk of a recession for the U.S.

Here is a compilation of reactions from experts and analysts:

Tai Hui, APAC Chief Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

“Today’s announcement could potentially raise U.S. average tariff rates to levels not seen since the early 20th century. If these tariffs persist, they could materially impact inflation, as U.S. manufacturing struggles to ramp up capacity and supply chains pass on costs to consumers. For instance, advanced semiconductor manufacturers in Taiwan may not absorb tariff costs without viable substitutes.

“The scale of these tariffs raises concerns about growth risks. U.S. consumers may cut back on spending due to pricier imports, and businesses might delay capital expenditures amid uncertainty about the tariffs’ full impact and potential retaliation from trade partners.”

David Rosenberg, President and founder of Rosenberg Research

“There are no winners in a global trade war. And when people have to realize, when you hear this clap trap about how consumers in United States are not going to bear any brunt. It’s all going to be the foreign producer. I roll my eyes whenever I hear that, because it shows a zero understanding of how trade works, because it is the importing business that pays the tariff, not the exporting country.

And a lot of that will get transmitted into the consumer, so we’re in for several months of a very significant price shock for the American household sector.”

Anthony Raza, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, UOB Asset Management

“They’ve come up with the most extreme numbers that we can’t even comprehend. How they’re coming up with these? And then in terms of timing, I think we were hopeful that maybe this would be something that was rolled out over the course of a year, that would allow like time for negotiations or whatever. But it does seem like the timing is much more immediate and is, again, worse than our worst-case type scenario in terms of flexibility.”

David Roche, Strategist, Quantum Strategy

“These tariffs are not transitional. They are core to President Trump’s beliefs. They mark the shift from globalisation to isolationist, nationalist policies – and not just for economics. The process will last several years and be felt for decades. There will be spillovers into multiple policy domains such as geopolitics.

Right now, expect retaliation, not negotiation by the EU (targeting U.S. services) and China (focusing on U.S. strategic and business interests). The Rose Garden tariffs will cement the bear market. They will cause global stagflation as well as U.S. and EU recession.”

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP

“Our rough calculation is that the 2nd April announcement will take the US average tariff rate to above levels seen in the 1930s after the Smoot/Hawley tariffs which will in turn add to the risk of a US recession – via a further blow to confidence and supply chain disruptions – and a bigger hit to global growth.

“The risk of a US recession is probably now around 40% and global growth could be pushed towards 2% (from around 3% currently) depending on how significant retaliation is and how countries like China respond with policy stimulus.”

Tom Kenny, Senior International Economist, ANZ

“Today’s announced US reciprocal tariffs are worse than expected. The effective tariff rate on U.S. merchandise imports is likely to climb to the 20-25% range, the highest since the early 1900s.

Yields on inflation-indexed bonds were higher and equities sold off after the announcement, suggesting the market thinks these tariffs will hurt growth and add to inflation. Market pricing of the federal funds rate points to cuts from the Federal Reserve coming sooner.”

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Economics

EC President von der Leyen

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The European Union is preparing further countermeasures against U.S. tariffs if negotiations fail, according to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed 20% tariffs on the bloc on Wednesday.

Von der Leyen’s comments come after retaliatory duties were announced by the bloc after the U.S. imposed tariffs on  last month in a bid to protect European workers and consumers. The EU at the time said it would introduce counter-tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28 billion) worth of U.S. goods.

Previously suspended duties — which were at least partially in place during Trump’s first term as president — are set to be re-introduced alongside a slew of additional duties on further goods.

Industrial-grade steel and aluminum, other steel and aluminum semi-finished and finished products, along with their derivative commercial products, such as machinery parts and knitting needles were set to be included. A range of other products such as bourbon, agricultural products, leather goods, home appliances and more were also on the EU’s list.

Following a postponement, these tariffs are expected to come into effect around the middle of April.

This is a developing story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

ADP jobs report March 2025:

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Attendees check in during a job fair at the YMCA Gerard Carter Center on March 27, 2025 in the Stapleton Heights neighborhood of the Staten Island borough in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Private payroll gains were stronger than expected in March, countering fears that the labor market and economy are slowing, according to a report Wednesday from ADP.

Companies added 155,000 jobs for the month, a sharp increase from the upwardly revised 84,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 120,000, the payrolls processing firm said.

The upside surprise comes amid worries that President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs could deter firms from adding to headcount and in turn slow business and consumer activity. Trump is set to announce the next step in his trade policy Wednesday at 4 p.m.

Hiring was fairly broad based, with professional and business services adding 57,000 workers while financial activities grew by 38,000 as tax season heats up. Manufacturing contributed 21,000 and leisure and hospitality added 17,000.

Service providers were responsible for 132,000 of the positions. On the downside, trade, transportation and utilities saw a loss of 6,000 jobs and natural resources and mining declined by 3,000.

On the wage side, earnings rose by 4.6% year over year for those staying in their positions and 6.5% for job changers. The gap between the two matched a series low last hit in September, suggesting a lower level of mobility for workers wanting to switch jobs.

Still, the overall numbers indicate a solid labor market. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the level of open positions is now almost even with available workers, reversing a trend in which openings outnumbered the unemployed by 2 to 1 a couple years ago.

The ADP report comes ahead of the more closely watched BLS measure of nonfarm payrolls. The BLS report, which unlike ADP includes government jobs, is expected to show payroll growth of 140,000 in March, down slightly from 151,000 in February. The two counts sometimes show substantial disparities due to different methodologies.

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