Connect with us

Economics

Election mentions jump on company conference calls as Nov. 5 approaches

Published

on

Voters walk to cast their ballots during early voting in the presidential election at a polling station at the C. Blythe Andrews, Jr. Public Library in Tampa, Florida, U.S., November 1, 2024. 

Octavio Jones | Reuters

Executives at America’s largest companies are talking publicly with investors about the presidential election more so than in recent cycles.

The word “election” came up on 100 earnings calls of S&P 500-listed firms between Sept. 15 and Oct. 31, according to FactSet. That’s the highest number of companies in the broad index mentioning the word during that timeframe, according to CNBC screens of the same period going back to 2004.

The economy is on the minds of everyday Americans as they head to the polls for what’s shaping up to be a neck-and-neck race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. At the same time, white-collar leaders are considering potential policy impacts on their businesses, while lamenting a general uncertainty tied to the political season.

Because of election uncertainty and a variety of other things, you can feel a little bit of caution out there,” Dover CEO Richard Tobin told analysts on the specialty manufacturer’s earnings call in late October.

FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters first pointed out the volume of companies discussing elections in recent weeks. Notably, his data found that very few executives of S&P 500 companies mentioned Harris or Trump by name, talking about the race more broadly.

‘Prudent’ clients

Multiple companies cited a feeling of unpredictability tied to the presidential race among consumers and business clients.

At Tractor Supply, CEO Harry Lawton said its customer was expected to remain “prudent” like past election years. That comes after the farm-focused retailer reported a bump in emergency response sales to start the quarter following Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Southwest Airlines, meanwhile, expects a “trough” in air travel around Election Day, according to operations chief Andrew Watterson. But when it comes to booking trends, Royal Caribbean CEO Michael Bayley said there has historically been no long-term impact from presidential elections, though the cruise line may see some volatility the week of the contest.

Southwest Airlines airplanes are serviced at their gates at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport on May 18, 2024, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Gary Hershorn | Corbis News | Getty Images

In addition to Election Day, market participants and business leaders are also closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next week. Tool maker Stanley Black & Decker CEO Donald Allan listed both the election and interest rates as reasons to anticipate “choppy markets” into the first half of 2025.

Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 96% chance of a decrease to the borrowing cost at the November meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool as of Friday evening. That comes after the central bank in September issued its first rate cut since 2020.

Stanley Black & Decker’s Allan also pointed out Trump’s policy on taxing imports, noting that America would be “likely in a new tariff regime.” The Republican nominee has said he plans to impose a 20% tax on imports, with an extra high rate of 60% on those coming from China.

William Grogan, CFO of water infrastructure company Xylem, said the election is one factor creating a “little bit of a pause” in the industrial market for big projects. Republic Services CEO Jon Vander Ark said the waste disposal company sees “a little bit of paralysis in an election year,” but he’s optimistic heading into the end of 2024 and start of 2025.

Watching the economy

More broadly, Eric Ashleman CEO of Idex, which makes components for everything from air bags to DNA testing equipment, said the race hasn’t helped the economic backdrop recently.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by the smallest number of jobs in October going back to late 2020 due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike. In this vein, Equifax said it saw softness in background screening volumes as executives consider what the outcome can mean for their businesses.

“Coming into the election, it feels like companies are being a little more prudent about the new hiring,” Equifax CEO Mark Begor said.

To be sure, some of the “election” mentions this year were tied to unrelated events like enrollment periods for health care. Other firms ranging from software company Tyler Technologies to credit card giant American Express said they haven’t felt impacts from the election on the business.

“This company has been around a long time,” American Express CEO Stephen Squeri told analysts last month. “I mean, obviously, we didn’t have cards 174 years ago. But we’ve been around for lots of different elections; lots of different configurations of the House, the Senate and so forth.”

Equity Residential CEO Mark Parrell, meanwhile, said state and local government is considered more important to the business than which party is victorious on the top of the ticket. Indeed, the company is a real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.

Moving forward

Still, this cycle has appeared to engage a uniquely high number of leaders within corporate America’s largest firms. The 2024 mentions count equates to the word “election” during that timeframe coming up on calls of around one in every five companies within the S&P 500. It’s also more than triple the number of references during the same period in 2008.

D.R. Horton is seeing buyers “stay on the sidelines” given the expectation for lower mortgage rates in 2025 and the stress tied to the election, according to CEO Paul Romanowski. The homebuilder is attempting to boost demand by offering mortgage buydowns and focusing on building houses with smaller floor plans, he said.

Another member of D.R. Horton’s C-suite spoke about the election more bluntly.

“I think everybody would be happy the election is over,” chief operating officer Michael Murray told analysts on the company’s earnings call. “I think that will help buyer sentiment and the ability to move forward with their life decision.”

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

Published

on

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

Continue Reading

Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

Published

on

Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

Continue Reading

Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

Published

on

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

Continue Reading

Trending