Connect with us

Economics

Euro zone inflation April 2024 and first-quarter GDP

Published

on

People walking in the streets of Montmartre, Paris, France, on April 23, 2024. 

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Price rises in the euro area held steady at 2.4% in April, while the economy returned to growth in the first quarter, according to flash figures published Tuesday.

Headline inflation of 2.4% was in line with the forecast of economists polled by Reuters. On a monthly basis, inflation was 0.6%.

It is the seventh straight month the headline rate has been below 3%, despite a slight rebound in the rate in December due to energy prices.

Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, dipped to 2.7% from 2.9% in March. The impact of a lower year-on-year price of energy continued to moderate, coming in at -0.6% versus -1.8% in March.

Price increases in services, a key watcher for the European Central Bank, cooled to 3.7% from 4%.

Gross domestic product meanwhile rose by 0.3% over the first three months of the year, slightly better than consensus economist expectations. GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 was revised from no growth to a 0.1% contraction, which means that the euro zone was in a technical recession in the second half of last year.

Market expectation is mounting for the ECB to start cutting interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting on June 6. Money market pricing currently indicates a nearly 70% probability of a June trim, according to LSEG data, with even higher bets on a cut in July or September.

A host of voting ECB members told CNBC earlier this month that they are anticipating an interest rate reduction in June, citing the need to prevent an excessive slowdown in the euro zone economy. They also flagged risks from oil prices and volatility in the Middle East.

The fact that services inflation fell for the first time in six months, serves as a “more important development that increases our confidence that the ECB will lower policy rates in June,” Gerardo Martinez, Europe economist at BNP Paribas, said in emailed comments.

However, Martinez noted the slightly lower-than-expected fall in core inflation and volatility in some areas of services that had increased the inflation rates in France and Italy.

“With the path from here likely to be bumpy and growth data showing that the eurozone economy is gathering momentum, we think the path beyond June remains more uncertain and we continue to expect a gradual and cautious (quarterly) pace of easing from the ECB,” Martinez said.

Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, told CNBC by email that growth figures were encouraging, and that firmer than expected core inflation “may suggest less urgent need for more accommodative monetary policy from the ECB.” This supported the euro on the back of the release, she said.

“While a June rate cut is considered by many market participants to be almost a done deal, there is still plenty room for debate about the pace of ECB policy moves later in the year,” Foley added.

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

Published

on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

Continue Reading

Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

Published

on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

Continue Reading

Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

Published

on

Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

Continue Reading

Trending