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European businesses have never been this gloomy about China

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A L ‘Oreal store near the Nanjing Road Pedestrian Street in Shanghai, China on April 1, 2025.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — European business optimism about China has hit its lowest on record – worse than during the pandemic — due to slower growth and geopolitical worries.

A record 73% of respondents in the EU Chamber of Commerce in China’s annual survey said doing business in the Asian country has become more difficult in the past year, marking a new high for a fourth-straight year.

That’s just one of the several record lows in sentiment found in the annual survey, which has been published since 2004. The latest study released Wednesday, covered 503 respondents in January and February.

“Companies are really feeling the squeeze, being pessimistic, but again finding very compelling supply chains in China that necessitate a continued presence [in] the Chinese market,” Jens Eskelund, president of the chamber, told reporters this week.

Still, that doesn’t mean business confidence is close to returning.

“We haven’t seen an inflection point yet,” Eskelund said. “A lot of it boils down to uncertainty.”

The survey reflected how challenges for foreign businesses in China have largely increased since the pandemic lockdown in 2022 disrupted supply chains. While local brands have become more competitive, overall consumer demand has remained lackluster amid the real estate slump and uncertainty in the job market.

China's under-consumption a structural issue, but spending potential of the youth is very positive

Cosmetics companies were particularly hit. The industry blamed a drop in local demand and reported a 45% drop in revenue in 2024 from a year before — only the second decline in the past decade, according to the chamber’s report.

On the other hand, aviation and aerospace were the rare industries saying that doing business in China became easier.

Slower growth is diminishing China’s attractiveness relative to other markets.

A record low of only 12% of respondents were optimistic about profitability in China in the coming two years, while the fewest on record ranked the country as a top destination for future investments. Another record low of 38% of respondents said they planned to expand in China over the coming year.

And while Beijing has announced efforts to improve conditions for foreign investment, many challenges remain.

A record 63% of respondents said they missed business opportunities in China last year due to market access restrictions and regulatory barriers. Medical device businesses who responded said European companies experienced discrimination due to public procurement practices favoring domestic players.

The scale of pessimism echoed an annual survey of U.S. companies in China released in late January that showed a record share of American businesses were accelerating plans to relocate manufacturing or sourcing.

Meanwhile, 53% of respondents said they would increase their investments in China if more action was taken to improve local market access.

Supply chain competition

China remains dominant in the global supply chain for its ability to offer quality parts at the lowest price — the only way that businesses are able to stay competitive, Eskelund said, citing conversations over the last three weeks with hundreds of companies across the chamber’s six chapters in China.

When asked about supply chain diversification, more than a quarter of respondents said they were increasing onshoring to China as a way to meet localization requirements and better reach the domestic market.

A far smaller share at 10% of respondents said they were establishing overseas alternative supply chains while keeping their existing network in China. The survey also found that nearly half of respondents said their Chinese suppliers were also moving operations to other markets.

Chinese and EU leaders are set to hold a summit in Beijing in July as both try to strengthen bilateral ties amid higher U.S. tariffs. The EU is China’s second-largest trading partner on a regional basis.

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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