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European Central Bank to cut rates again with Trump threat in focus

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Watch CNBC's full interview with ECB President Christine Lagarde

The European Central Bank is widely expected to kick off its 2025 meetings with another interest rate cut on Thursday, as traders aim to gauge how far the central bank is willing to diverge from a stalled Federal Reserve.

Money markets on Wednesday were pricing in 35 basis points worth of rate cuts for the January meeting, indicating the euro zone’s central bank will cut by at least a quarter-percentage point. That would take the deposit facility, its key rate, to 2.75% marking its fifth trim since it began easing monetary policy in June 2024.

Market pricing then suggests follow-up cuts at the ECB’s March and June meetings, with a fourth and final reduction bringing the deposit facility to 2% by the end of the year.

Expectations for a swift pace of easing this year have solidified, even after headline euro area inflation increased for a third straight month in December. A slight uptick in the rate of price rises was expected due to effects from the energy market, while business activity indicators for the bloc show continued weakness in manufacturing and tepid consumer confidence. Economists polled by Reuters are expecting fourth-quarter growth figures to show GDP expanding just 0.1%, down from 0.4% in the third quarter.

While this week’s ECB rate move is near guaranteed, several key questions remain that its president, Christine Lagarde, will likely be quizzed on during her post-announcement press conference — and many of those relate to the U.S. and its new leader.

One concern is whether the ECB is comfortable with the increasing distance between its own monetary policy path and that of the world’s biggest central bank, the Federal Reserve, which is set to hold rates on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in just two quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed this year, as projected by Fed members in December.

Some strategists suggest the Fed could enact just one cut, and at the very least tread water as it awaits more detail on President Donald Trump’s actual policies versus his extreme trade threats and their potential inflationary impact.

Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 21st, 2025.

Interest rates won’t fall as fast as expected if tariffs stoke inflation, UBS CEO says

Lagarde acknowledged that divergence in an interview at the World Economic Forum last week, telling CNBC that it was the result of different economic environments. While the euro area has fallen into stagnation, the U.S. economy has continued to grow at a solid clip in the higher interest rate environment, and many investors are optimistic on the 2025 outlook despite Trump uncertainty.

“We have to look at a differentiation here through the lens of growth and the spare capacity that is building up in the U.S. We have an economy that’s performing strongly and rapidly … We can’t say the same thing when we look at the euro zone,” Sandra Horsfield, economist at Investec, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

“That divergence does mean that inflationary pressures are more likely to be sustained for some time in the U.S.,” she said, leading her to forecast one more Fed cut followed by a pause, and a greater scope for cuts in Europe.

Currency drag

The ECB has repeatedly stressed that it is willing to move ahead of the Fed and that it is focusing on its domestic picture of inflation and growth. However, a major impact of policy differentials is in foreign exchange, with higher rates tending to boost a domestic currency.

This reinforces expectations that the euro could be pulled back to parity with the greenback and suggests even further strength for an already-mighty U.S. dollar in 2025. That matters for the ECB, because a weaker currency increases the cost of importing goods, even if the central bank’s bigger concerns right now relate to domestically-generated services and wage inflation.

Lagarde downplayed the impact of this effect, telling CNBC the exchange rate “will be of interest, and … may have consequences.”

However, she also said she was not concerned about the import of inflation from the U.S. to Europe and continues to expect price rises to cool toward target. The ECB president added that bullishness around the U.S. economy was a positive “because growth in the U.S. has always been a favorable factor for the rest of the world.” 

Trade question

U.S. President Donald Trump makes a special address remotely during the 55th annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 23, 2025. 

Trump slams trade relationship with European Union: ‘We have some very big complaints’

Trade wars could disrupt global supply chains and stoke inflation, warranting higher interest rates at the ECB, said George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars.

“Inflation and rate risks are definitely on the upside” for the euro zone, he told CNBC by email.

“EU company selling price expectations have flattened and show an upward tendency. This is a leading indicator to the ECB’s own projections … and the Fed will likely be on a more hawkish path, so significant divergence from the ECB could risk flight of capital towards the Dollar,” he added.

On the possibility that the ECB could enact a bigger half-point rate cut, he said: “If we do see a sharp rate cut, it would mean that the board seeks to protect growth in the core of the euro zone, and make sure that political uncertainty in France and Germany or a loose fiscal policy in Italy do not cause a precipitous rise in borrowing rates.”

Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at RaboResearch, also said he was “less optimistic when it comes to the inflation outlook than the ECB is, or markets appear to be,” forecasting a fall in rates to 2.25% this year.

“When the ECB incorporates Trump tariffs in their baseline scenario, we would expect higher inflation forecasts on their part too,” he told CNBC.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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